ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OVERSHADOW MILITARY RISKS
RUSSIA MAY BE THE BIG WINNER
While we see lots of boasting and new threats against Iran, the reality of this war is just starting to be established.
While it is reported that the biggest refinery in the world in Saudi Arabia is shut down, possibly due to Mossad false flag operations and the biggest LNG refinery in Qatar is also shut down, the real global economic problem is, as predicted, the Strait of Hormuz. While Trump is offering that the U.S. will insure tankers traveling the strait, I suspect that is an impossibility, due to many factors, too numerous to list. Insurance will will not encourage captains and crews to put to their lives on the line.
Then there is the proposal to have U.S. Navy escort ships, the dream of the Iranian military. At present U.S. ships are as much as 600 miles from the coast of Iran, due to the danger of missile attacks, to navigate the strait they would be 15 miles or less from the coast of Iran, within range of missiles and even artillery. These ships would need close air support, at present planes are not flying over Iran. Iran is being attached with ship based cruise missiles and air to ground missiles fired outside of Iranian air space. Low altitude air support would make them vulnerable to even shoulder fired weapons. An example is Ukraine, while Russia bombards Ukraine every day and night after 4 years they still do not do flyovers. If Iran cannot close the strait with military power, they will just sink several tankers and make it impassable for many months.
The administration is claiming that they have almost eliminated Iranian missile launchers, the reality is that Iran has been preparing for this day since 2003 when Bush 2 listed them as part of the Axis of Evil and then attacked Iraq. Much of their facilities are underground, mobile and concealed until they are needed.
Panic is displayed when Trump threatens a total embargo of Spain and the military taking of NATO bases, due to Spain's refusal to cooperate with this war. This may be due to the fact that U.S. bases in the gulf are no longer usable.
The shortage of air defense missiles is real and it is proposed to strip them from facilities in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan.
Israel's killing of Khamenei and the 165 elementary school girls is likely intentional to make sure Iran is willing to fight to the end with the US. It is also being reported that they are hitting hospitals, police stations and civilian infrastructure. They have united the nation very successfully.
Trump has made 3 overtures at a ceasefire, Iran attempted to negotiate and every time they were attacked during negotiations. There will not be any negotiations, it will be a fight to the death. Iran understands that this war is an existential fight for their nation.
It can be expected that this will be the U.S. priority for possibly months, the rest of the Trump term will be defined by this war. Ukraine will be put on the back burner and the credibility of any negotiations with the U.S. are likely dead everywhere.
Russian oil is suddenly looking as the go to source of oil for China, India, Japan, South Korea and the whole far east. Europe will be in dire straits very quickly, I suspect that if they want oil from Russia they will need to repair the pipeline at their expense and a demand for the lifting of sanctions. Sanctions will soon be dead and the price will be market price.
The talk of ground forces is already being proposed, The loyal Kurds, who the U.S. has screwed repeatedly, are the first choice, the trucks are possibly already backed up to treasury to load pallets of unappropriated dollars. There is also groups in the north, more pallets of dollars. These groups will be led by U.S advisers and U.S. air power will be needed for close air support, a very dangerous job.
How about a couple hundred thousand Israeli troops, after all, this is their baby, time to do the parenting.
I usually refrain from blaming Israel for much of this, I still will not, but the rest of the world is now aware as to how this situation has came about. Can Israel's public opinion in the world go any lower?
Ray, quite a bit to unpack in your post. I agree about the Kurds, which may result in Turkey getting involved. My main contention with your post is the horse and wagon with Israel. Netanyahu has tried to lure every American president since Bush to take on Iran, but only Trump succumbed. Iran has always been an existential threat to Israel, so I don't blame Netanyahu for trying, and he finally found a president foolish enough.
ReplyDeleteIsrael for decades has had the military might to take out Iran completely, all on its own. Naturally, Israel would value support from any of its allies. It got that support in America, with other nations preparing to join in against an Iran that has recently begun lashing out against its neighbors. Risky move there.
DeleteYes, this is Trump's war, he agreed to take it on, it will be the defining moment of his presidency. His adversaries have won, he has done it himself.
Delete8.18, Israel could not take on Iran alone. It could not take on Iraq, Syria or Libya, it is solely dependent on the USA for its perceived military power, a power that may very well be substantially diminished in this war.
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