Consequences of Iran war will be long term.

 IT APPEARS DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO  MOVE FORWARD

OIL PRICES TO REMAIN ELEVATED, POLITICAL WARS INCREASE

Word is out, ships are beginning to move in the strait of Hormuz, while only a fraction of former traffic, it can be expected to increase in the coming days. Oil futures prices have fallen, but it appears that it will take many months for prices to normalize. Demand will rise as Governments attempt to replenish reserves drawn down in recent months. Most reserves were within weeks of being depleted.

It is reported that Vance has canceled his meeting in Switzerland due to logistics problems or an attempt to not give ammunition to the opposition to this deal. We should expect negotiations will now be conducted with little transparency and little drama. 

While many sceptics, with good reason, have doubted the sincerity of this deal on Trump's part, it does, at least for now, look like Trump has made the decision to end this. A difficult decision, but all the other options would result in a long term commitment that could have lasted years. It may be that now that that decision has been made it will be implemented quickly.

The political consequences are just beginning, the political warfare will be intense from those who wanted to keep this going for years. We will hear that just a little longer, or a few more attacks would have made the difference and the government would have collapsed. Same litany that we have heard for years in diverse places all the while the debts keep exploding the deficits increasing and economic peril increases at home. The consequence of this war are going to be costly, but Trump is experienced in cutting his loses when staying engaged would be worse.

Israel will need to make adjustments to its policy's, whether it wants to or not, We can expect their own domestic political situation will be intense as well. It is predictable that other crisis's and other challenges will soon take the attention of  us all.