Lying about the Iran situation is having consequences.

 REASONS WHY NEGOTIATION IS THE BEST OPTION

IT WILL BE REVEALED IN TIME

 

Many are shocked that the U.S. would go down the negotiation route especially when the outline of negotiations will allow Iran to survive, sell oil and potentially prosper in the future. It appears they will retain the right to nuclear enrichment for commercial reasons and submit to inspections. The sanctions on them will be lifted for the first time in 47 years. Their frozen assets will be given back. Why is this happening ,when it has been reported that Iran has been decimated, their military no longer exists and they are on the so called ropes. Misinformation about this conflict, in an attempt to call the result a win has now come back to cause wide spread disbelief as to why this is the best option. Here are some of the reasons.

 

1. Both the U.S. and Israel were dangerously short of air defense interceptors. There has been a coordinated effort to minimize the damage caused by Iran's ballistic missiles on U.S. bases and Israel.

 

2. The attacks on Iran were possible using stand off missiles fired from Naval assets and air to ground missiles fired outside Iranian air space. While huge numbers of standard bombs are available they would require aircraft to fly over Iran and contrary to the narrative, Iran never turned on their air defenses ,understanding it would make them vulnerable to stand off weapons. The U.S. was not flying over Iran. If we recall the missing pilot saga, no longer talked about, it seems this was covert action to possibly retrieve the nuclear material, it ended badly, with the loss of 2 fighter jets, 4 helicopters and 2 other aircraft, the retrieved ordinance officer is still not identified, possibly because it was not an American. This did not happen because Iran no longer had air defenses.

 

3. It became clear that defeating Iran would require boots on the ground with the possible massive casualties in both ground troops and air support. It would have propelled the U.S. into to an extended war requiring the call up of troops with no clear assurance of quick victory. The geography, population and years of preparation made Iran a formidable opponent.

 

4. The strait of Hormuz put this whole thing on a clock, the worlds oil reserve were becoming depleted,  The Embargo was weak since Iran has access to the Caspian sea and multiple land routes.

 

5. Russia and China views Iran as a pivotal asset for their future commercial business, strategic location on the east west and north south routes. They would have supplied Iran in any prolonged conflict that could have tied the U.S. down for a very long time and drained its resources.

 

6. Iran still had substantial missile capabilities, it threatened to destroy the desalination and oil resources of the region if its infrastructure was attacked, we can assume that the U.S. intelligence understood this reality.

 

Then there is the reality that Iran has been moving in a more moderate direction, with a view that it wanted to become a player in BRICS and  become a less confrontational actor. It has shown restraint even with the assassination of its leadership, attack on it school girls, it did not become enraged and lash out, without purpose, it mostly engaged in measure retaliation to attacks.  It has been rational in its negotiations and firm in demanding that it desired to become a member of the world community. 

 

Trump did not go down the negotiation path because he did not want to defeat Iran, but because the cost in that endeavor was not predictable, very high, with no assurance of victory. This is the same calculation that 4 other presidents came to, ,after careful analysis from objective U.S. analysts. This war has given Iran the leverage to change the direction of its relationship going forward. It could be the best result for everyone, if successful.