Day 102, Economic or political exhaustion, not military victory.

 WHO WILL BE FORCED TO END THIS BY NECESSITY?

THE CLOCK IS NOW TICKING QUICKLY

It is clear, there is no serious negotiation that will be acceptable to the U.S., Iran and Israel. At present, everything is sort of in limbo, but it is becoming clear that a military victory is unlikely. It is more likely that exhaustion or financial necessity will be what brings this conflict to a close.

The U.S. is the most powerful player in this affair, at least militarily. It is clear that 40 days of bombing have not eliminated Iran's ability to do damage, that is why there was a call by Trump for ceasefire in the first place. So far, the damage to the world economy due to the interference in energy supplies has been managed by expending reserves, and there is a limit to how long that can be sustained. The reality is that the flow of energy out of the Persian gulf must happen and soon.   

The calls from the hard core Neocons and Israel to finish off Iran assumes that Iran is a sitting duck and an easy kill, serious analysts understand that this is not true. Iran has made it clear that a further resumption of attacks will result in Iran taking out the Persian gulf energy production facilities for possibly years, Iran does have that capability. This will result in a global financial crisis that no one will escape. At present, Iran has not pre-emptively attacked anyone,  but they are retaliating to any attacks by the U.S. and Israel, both on Iran and Lebanon.

It seems Trump has hoped that an embargo would bring Iran to accept his demands, this is unlikely, as Iran as alternative corridors through the Caspian sea and Pakistan. It is near impossible to enforce a total blockade on Iran. The clock is ticking for Trump both economically and politically. 

Iran is geographically a fortress that will not be defeated without massive ground forces and there are not enough forces available and logistics of such an enterprise are not being entertained by anyone. Iran has been under sanctions and assault for 47 years, that is why they constructed such a massive underground defense system. The hope of an internal revolt has been much exaggerated. While there is internal disagreements, the assassinations and massive bombing has united the country as it would any nation. I suspect, that while suffering, they can outlast the U.S. and Israel. The delusion in the west that Iranians view Israel and the U.S. as benevolent saviors is just stupid.

Israel is now in the weakest position, the idea postulated by the present leadership that Israel is an emerging super power is dangerously delusional. It is completely dependent on the U.S. for its ultimate security. The U.S. is experiencing  its own problems of over extension after years of war, both it the middle east and Ukraine. Another reason for the call for a ceasefire was the shortage of precision munitions.

Israel's army is being exhausted after 3 years of continuous fighting and the idea of expansion and occupation is near impossible for a small population. There is a limit to how long Israel can continue militarily, economically and more importantly politically. The opposition at home is not for peace but for more war, how is that situation going to be reconciled?

The real solution is a comprehensive negotiation to settle all disputes, at present no can even talk directly to each other, a real solution would take years to accomplish and at present there is no will for anything like that. It will only end with the brutal reality of exhaustion and an inability to continue.