Iran unwilling to cede control of Strait.

 NUCLEAR ENRICHMENT NO LONGER AN ISSUE

FAST MOVING NEGOTIATIONS EXCEPT FOR STRAIT 

 

It seems there is now a ceasefire within the ceasefire as negotiations resume. The future of the strait of Hormuz seems to now be the major controversy. The 14 point agreement stated that the strait would be open by both parties for the next 60 days, then an arrangement would be made between Oman and Iran whose territorial waters overlap in the strait of Hormuz.  At the same time, messaging coming out of Washington is that the strait will be either opened or controlled by the U.S.  

 

There is also some controversy  about the returned Iranian assets, it seems the U.S. wants to put controls on the money that it could only be spent in the U.S., terms that are unacceptable to Iran. 

 

It seems the nuclear issue is to revert back to the same as it was before the war. Iran would limit its enrichment to what is needed for commercial uses and dilute or cede the enriched fuel. all this was agreed to before the war,  inspections would verify compliance.

 

The reality is that Iran, by controlling the strait, and they just made that clear last week, can disrupt oil flow instantly, giving them enormous leverage.  It is also clear that taking control away from them is difficult, costly or possibly impossible and the longer it is not clearly open the clock on global economic damage is ticking. 

 

It is in the best interest of Iran that the strait is safe and open as it will prosper by its own flow of oil and possibly by some sort of regulation maintained by them and Oman.  Many claim that the strait is regulated by international law, but there is some controversy as the territorial waters of Oman and Iran actually cover the entire width of the strait. The U.S. has also made it clear that they will not be handicapped by international  law, so I guess possession is a powerful position.

 

Many advocate a resumption of the war, but it still is not an easy choice, as Iran has the ability to destroy gulf oil infrastructure and keep the strait closed, both a strong incentive to avoid more all out war.