Why U.S. dollar is destined to lose its dominance.

 DEBT, DEFICITS AND DECLINING MANUFACTURING CAPACITY

FINANCIAL IRRESPONSIBILITY HAS ITS LIMITS

We are continually hearing about the end of dollar hegemony, or the end of the dollar's reserve currency status and the end of the petrodollar. We also hear defenses that the preeminence of the dollar will continue for a very long time. 

I suspect that many do not understand what all this means and how it will effect them if the dollar should lose its predominant position in world trade.

At the end of WW2 the United States was in effect the only untouched economic world power. All of Europe, Russia, Japan and much of the industrialized world were either devastated by the damage caused by the war or were in a period of revolution and economic and political chaos. The United States was the unparalleled economic, political, military and industrial power. It had a reputation as being a nation with a legal system that guaranteed the possibility of opportunity and an economic system undamaged and based on the dollar, with a reputation of "As good as Gold" This position was destined to be unchallenged for at least some time.

It took the other  major industrial powers at least 2 decades to recover from this situation and to be able to experience a normal economic situation and see prosperity in their future.

The United States had an industrial base that was unchallenged and could produce an abundance of necessities to satisfy domestic demand which was strong due to the pent-up demand and savings that had increased due to a shortage of domestic goods due to the war. It also could furnish these products to the rest of the world.

I remember the debates that were going on the middle of 1960's about the virtues of deficit spending, some had experienced the opportunity for amassing great wealth due to the government's spending in a mobilized war economy. The opposite side believed in a sound and strong dollar policy.

At the same time the country engaged in the Vietnam war, 10 years of accelerated government spending and also the introduction of government programs like Medicare, Medicaid and other expensive programs that required increased government spending. The government and elected official realized that to finance these things it would need to raise taxes significantly and that would cause some to experience political consequences.

We must remember that way before this the western powers embraced Keynesian economic theory with the premise that the government could regulate the economy by engaging in deficit spending when there is economic slowing and then recoup this spending or debt in economic good times. Deficit spending is in effect government debt. With this in mind we must take note that the last balanced federal budget was in 1969, just 24 years after WW2. These deficits and debt also began to destroy the buying power of the U.S. dollar and when foreign counties began to demand they exchange their paper dollars for gold, the government responded by denying that ability. The U.S. ended this convertibility in 1971. It was the beginning of the real decline in the U.S. position as the greatest economy in world history.

So here we are now 50 years later and the U.S. is still trudging along, some say the ride will last forever, but sadly this ride is approaching its end. The U.S. debt is now $34 Trillion, its annual deficit is approaching 30% of the budget, the U.S. manufacturing  capacity is only 30% of its nearest competitor, China. 

This ability to engage in these deficits and debt has been due to the reputation of this country earned in prior decades, but now we have reached the limits of these policies.

These deficits and debt have been possible due to the fact that the United States has been able to spend way above its real wealth by buying energy, materials and manufactured goods from around the world with constantly declining in value dollars. We receive huge container ships of goods and send them home with ships of paper dollars. If the United States had goods that were needed and competitive with its trading partners they could send those dollars back in exchange for goods made in the USA. The reality is that these countries have placed those surplus dollars in U.S. debt with an interest return below the rate of the dollar's decline in buying power or inflation. We have in effect been playing a winning scheme were our partners have been on the losing side of this scheme.

So contrary to the narrative that these countries are conspiring against us, we have really mortgaged our future and they are about to end their part of this schemc. The move now is for these counties to do transactions with each other in their own currencies and eventually to a common currency that they can all support. If Brazil receives Chinese currency for its agricultural products they can spend them in China for most anything they would want at very competitive prices. China can take Brazilian currency for its goods and buy grain or beef or raw materials from Brazil.

The United States has fewer and fewer goods that out trading partners can economically spend those dollar on and they are now disengaging in buying U.S. debt that has been a loser for them. While I use China, it applies also to Japan and Saudi Arabia, large holders of U.S. debt that are in the process of liquidating those holdings and buying gold or other solid investments.

The United States has now accelerated this problem by denying China the purchase of certain products that China bought from us, not necessarily because they could not produce these things, but because it was a place to spend their surplus U.S. dollars. China has now replaced these products with their own manufacture or from some more friendly partner. In the end the U.S. will be the loser as has been demonstrated by the policy of not selling computer chips to China, so they now make chips themselves and have made them more competitive priced than U.S. chips. China did not purchase U.S. farmland to damage the United States, but just an economic decision to hedge against the declining buying power of the dollar. The U.S seems to believe that the rest of world owes the U.S. by financing its debt.

The other example is sanctions, the United States has escalated a policy of economic sanctions that have all backfired and damaged the U.S. more than the sanctioned countries. The U.S. and European sanctions on Russia have in effect begun the deindustrialization of Europe. They may, even this winter, experience a lack of heat and food for their populations. The confiscation of Russian assets in U.S. and EU denominated currencies has sent alarm bells off  around the world that it is time to shift to another means of currency transactions. These realities are happening now and it appears that it is irreversible, no matter the political direction of the United States.

So what does it mean to average U.S. citizen not engaged in world trade or currency speculation. First off it will demand an end to the growing U.S. debt. which would mean an end to deficit spending. If the Federal government balanced its budget, now near an impossibility, it would result in an economic crash of historic proportions, possibly the worst economic crisis in human history. If they would raise taxes to create a balance it would decimate the economy by removing all that money from  the real private economy, the economy that produces wealth, not just redistributes it. If they would cut government spending it would also create a collapse, because now near 50% of the economy is government generated. The United States and western Europe will likely have the same fate. It is, in effect, the paying of a long overdue bill, that will take decades to manage.

This is of course if our leaders decide to bite the bullet and take the medicine for a self created financial debacle. It appears they are groping for some easy out, confiscate the savings of everyone? replace the dollar with a digital currency that they can further control and debase? Or the time tested policy of global war? What is needed is repentance for breaking the laws of finance and a good faith effort to mend their ways. Either way, it will be very painful in the least or a global disaster at its worst. It is time for leaders with wisdom and the talent for diplomacy, something that at present, is not a reality.

Trump campaign is looking strong.

TRUMP PRESIDENCY IS LOOKING BETTER EVERY DAY

6 DAYS TO FIRST PRIMARY

I finally decided it was time to watch some presidential campaigning. The Iowa primary or caucus is Jan. 16 and Trump is campaigning hard in Iowa. Watching some of his events, it appears he is recapturing his former ability to give speeches and rouse a crowd. Early on, he seemed a little off his usual enthusiasm, but it now appear he is fired up and ready to engage in these coming months.

While he is still touting his basic campaign of border control and making America great again, it is a fact that he has been gifted an enormous amount of ammunition by the current administration. Would anyone like to do a comparison of the results of these 3 years of the Biden administration, a disaster in every way by any objective comparison. Even if Biden should be jettisoned by the democrats, their platform could be labeled the destruction of America in favor of some vague mixture of Marxism and Fascism, division at home, death and destruction abroad. 

It is questionable, if anyone can save America from the fundamental transformation that the democrats have successfully inflicted on this once great nation. Their tenure has not spared any part of what has made America a great country. They have destroyed the rule of law for political prosecutions, they have destroyed the standing of the nation around the world, we are no longer admired but repulsed by our behaviour and our policies with the rest of the world. No more persuasion by our good example and  mutual benefit and prosperity, but threats, intimidation and naked aggression.

Our financial house is on the verge of collapse, due to unrestrained deficit spending and an unrivaled debt in world history. It is unlikely it can be repaired.  

The present changes to the elections system are not trusted by the American people and many third world countries have simpler and more secure elections.

So, it does look like Trump will most likely be the republican candidate. The democrats who are the most undemocratic, have cancelled their primaries, barred opponents from their ballots and have in effect reenaugerated Biden as their candidate. I guess they figure it worked last time and it can work again, particularly with their ability to control and dictate the major media narrative. It doesn't seem to matter, almost no one really believes that Biden and Harris have much to do with the decisions made in this present government. I suspect it would not be any different with any other democrat candidate. 

It seems the entrenched bureaucracy has hoped to jettison Trump for their new puppet, Nikki Haley, someone who advocates war with almost anyone, particularly if they should refuse to bow to U.S. demands. She would satisfy their dream of a pliable candidate on both sides of the election. 

Anyway, the election season is now officially underway, it can be expected to be an everyday revelation of some Trump misstep or scandal. I suspect his supporters are now more entrenched than ever, he is their martyr, he has stood up to every lame investigation and prosecution and the major media has no revelation that will now change their minds.  

America has forever been changed in many ways, this election may decide if its very survival will be ensured.

Russia still self restrained in Ukraine.

THIS HAS NEVER BEEN ALL OUT WAR

STILL HOPES FOR FUTURE RELATIONS

There has been a continuing narrative that Russia has been stalled in its all out war with Ukraine. An objective view could only conclude that Russia has been restrained in this conflict. It could have fought a much more aggressive war, if it really wanted to. 

For one, Russia has still not taken out the bridges and railways that cross the Dnieper river. It has not destroyed the government buildings in Kiev. It has not targeted Ukrainian political leaders. While Ukraine is constantly complaining that Russia has been targeting civilians, most of the civilian casualties have been incurred by spent defensive missiles. Israel has inflicted more civilian casualties in 3 months than Russia in 2 years. 

It is clear that Russia's goal is to attain its strategic goals, without completely destroying Ukraine. While in the end that may be the result, it is not the objective.

One must wonder, if the United States and NATO ever believed that Ukraine could prevail in this conflict. In the beginning of this conflict Russia had a very small military, invaded with a small force and hoped for negotiations. The west seemed to supply weapons to Ukraine incrementally, never giving them the power to be dominant. Just supplying enough to keep them from being overrun, just enough to keep them hoping that they could prevail. 

It has been more tanks, Himar missiles, Patriot missiles, Storm-shadows, the hope of F-16 jets and the latest is long range missiles, in the hope of striking into Russia.

At this point, none of this will save Ukraine, Russia has now become much stronger than 2 years ago, both militarily and economically, they will not lose this conflict. Ukraine can only incur more death and destruction.

While many political leaders in Washington still believe that the death and destruction in Ukraine is worth it, if Russian's are dieing, it is a cynical and a horror of foreign policy and it is becoming transparent to the rest of the world.

While Russia has been restrained, strikes inside Russia will not promote Ukrainian victory, but may very well unleash the need for Russia to end this through all out war. Russia has been degrading Ukraine's air defenses. It has been mostly fighting with long range artillery and stand off missiles and seems to have unlimited amounts of ammunition, probably still using it old cold war hoard. 

I suspect that it still has a massive hoard of cold war aerial bombs and with its air force intact and Ukraines air defenses dwindling, one can only imagine what an all out bombing campaign of Ukraine would entail. Is it necessary for every last Ukrainian to die before the west admits that it has embarked on a misguided and foolish adventure that may be the worst foreign policy decision since WW2.

 

Brief, modern history of Iran and will it be war?

 

SOME WANT WAR WITH IRAN, NOW

IRAN HAS BEEN ADVISED TO NOT TAKE THE BAIT

The Middle East, while an area of unrest for decades, has reached an unprecedented time of violence and instability. This did not just come about by bad luck, but by a series of poor diplomatic decisions and interventions by Western powers and the desire by Islamic leaders for an Islamic Government or Caliphate.

We will try to be as brief as possible and still provide an objective background for this subject.

We must keep in mind that 85% of the Muslim world population is Sunni (mostly in southeast Asia) and 15% is Shia. This split can be traced back to the death of the Prophet. It was a dispute over who the successor should be...the Sunnis believed Abu Bakr was the most qualified to succeed as caliph by consensus of the community.  The Shias believed succession should go to the closest blood relative Ali Ibn Abi Talib. This was the beginning of the divide that has led to wars and disputes for  over 1300 years. While Sunni and Shia Muslims have lived side by side, intermarried, and fought along side each other for long periods of time, there often comes a period when a fight for supremacy erupts. The desire for a Caliphate or Islamic government is espoused by both sects of Islam, neither side would be happy with the rule of the other.

Iran is approximately 95% Shia, Azerbaijan 90%, Iraq 75%, Bahrain 70%,  also large minorities in Yemen, Syria, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Lebanon. The rest of the Middle East and North Africa, as well as Asia, are Sunni. The population of Shias could be 30% in the Middle East. While their differences started over succession, there are also other differences in their beliefs. We are giving this information as it is important background for understanding the Middle East situation, but this could be a very long subject in itself.

While Iran has been able to remain an independent country for over 2 millennium,  it has had a continuing interaction with both Britain and Russia, sometimes in conflict and sometimes in cooperation. Georgia, Armenia  and Azerbaijan were once part of Persia, but were ceded to Russia in the 19th Century. Much of the early trade in Iran was controlled by Britain. During WW2 Iran tried to remain independent, but eventually was occupied by British, Russian and American troops.

Mohamed Reza Shah Pahlavi ascended to the throne in 1941.The British owned Anglo-Iranian Oil Co. and extracted and marketed Iranian oil. When WW2 ended, Iran set out to modernize the country. While the Shah vowed to act as a constitutional monarchy, he increasingly involved himself in governmental affairs and engaged in manipulation of the political process and opposed or thwarted the Prime Ministers.  In 1951 the Iranian Parliament voted to nationalize the oil industry, controlled by Britain. Dr. Muhammad Mosaddeq was elected prime minister after the assassination of his predecessor. Britain responded with threats and sanctions and tried unsuccessfully to move the US under Truman to take action against Mosaddeq.  By 1952 Mosaddeq was becoming more dictatorial and demanded control of the military. The Shah refused and Mosaddeq resigned. He was reinstated after riots demanded he return. He then conducted a national referendum to dissolve parliament. The Shah fled to Baghdad.

Mosaddeg, an aging, eccentric academic, was immensely popular with people. He was a nationalist, not a communist, although he had some support of the communists. In 1953 when Eisenhower became president, the British and others were able to convince Washington that Mosaddeg was about to align Iran with the USSR. The Army, loyal to the Shah,  with help from the CIA and Britain overthrew and arrested Mosaddeq. This coup earned the USA and Britain the lasting hatred of large sectors of the Iranian public. Mosaddeq remains a folk hero of Iranian Nationalism.

The Shah took advantage of the politics of the cold war. He was a ally of the west, and friendly to Israel. He initiated reforms including land reform, extending voting rights to women and eliminating illiteracy. There was opposition to these reforms by Shia clerics and supporters of the status quo. The Shah responded by suppressing and persecuting his opposition through his security and intelligence organization, SAVAK, which used tactics including arbitrary arrest, imprisonment, exile and torture. Israel was accused of helping the Shah organize SAVAK.

The Ayatollah Khomeini was exiled to Iraq from Iran in 1965. He moved to France in 1978. He was an opponent of the Shah and preached an absolutist theocratic rule.  His ideas where propagated into Iran by books and cassettes smuggled into Iran. The Shah, suffering from cancer left Iran on Jan. 16. 1979. He appointed Shapour Baktiar as Prime Minister. Baktiar was unable to keep order, and invited Khomeini back to Iran. Khomeini returned on February 1, 1979. Mass purges began, with many executions, including four military generals. In March a referendum was held, with only one form of government on the ballot, an Islamic Republic, and was approved by 98% of voters in non-secret elections.

Executions were expanded, Kurds, Arabs, Turkomans and other minorities demanded autonomy. Suppression of most rights was the rule and a free press and expression were forbidden. The Sunni neighbors were fearful of a spread of this ideology. The new government allowed the American embassy to be overrun and hostages to be taken. Boycotts and sanctions were imposed by the west. Neighboring countries were being subverted by propaganda from Iran. Economic conditions were deteriorating in Iran. This was the beginning of the chaos that was to follow.

Iranians that I knew in the early 1980's could not return home and their families could not leave.  They detested the reign of the Shah and the excesses of SAVAK, but feared that their lives would be short if they attempted to return home.

THIS HSITORY WAS PUBLISHED 12/8/2015

1/5/2024

We see the war drums now beating concerning Iran. We hear calls for attacks on Iran by John Bolton and Nikki Haley. We see that Israel would like to instigate a war with the U.S. and Iran. It has openly called for the U.S. to strike targets in Iran and in the last few days we have strikes, although they have been denied by the U.S. and Israel.

While Iran has been called the biggest supporter of terrorism, it may be true if you limit it to the middle east region, but sunni sects have mostly been responsible for international terrorism, in the U.S. and Europe. Much of the Sunni terrorism has been halted by a crackdown by the new leader in Saudi Arabia who prosecuted those in the country who supported terrorist groups. 

Iran without a doubt wants to spread its style of Islam in the region, it has supported groups like the Houthis in Yemen and has supported Syria in its ongoing conflict. It also has supported Hezbollah in Lebanon. Accusations of Iran masterminding the Hamas attack in Israel is probably not a fact. Contrary to much of the hype, Hamas is not beloved by these other factions.

It is true that Iran has been vocally calling for the destruction of Israel and is an avowed enemy of the United States, but at the same time there are indications that Iran has been moving to more moderate position. It has made progress with relations with saudi arabia and that would put pressure on Iran to relinquish support for the Houthis who are committing acts of terrorism in Saudi Arabia. Israel and Saudi Arabia were in the process of normalizing relations when Hamas attacked Israel. This may have been an act of desperation as Hamas watched as the political environment in the region was changing. This could also apply to the Houthis.

The major countries in the region do not want a war, this includes Iran. They can assume any war in the region would stifle their plans for a new economic and political environment in their being now members of the BRICS union. Egypt, Iran Saudi Arabia and the UAE became members on Jan.1, 2024. They all feel this too important for them to get dragged into a war in this local dispute.

You can be sure that Russia and China have been counselling Iran and other major countries to be restrained and not take the bait to go to war. A baiting that will likely be intensified, because Israel wants such a war and some in the U.S. may believe that such a war will have positive political results for them. They may also believe that such a war can short circuit the growing movement to a economic system independent of U.S. control. 

That may be a real roll of the dice as it could very well hasten rather short circuit that coming reality and could also have devastating consequences on the entire world. We can only hope that some better diplomatic decisions can be made. 

Epstein sex trafficking, just big distraction.

 NO ONE IS ASKING THE RIGHT QUESTIONS

WHO WAS EPSTEIN'S EMPLOYER?

We again hear all the talk about who was on Epstein's airplane? Who visited his island in the Caribbean? Who attended his parties in New York or Who spent time in his New Mexico ranch? It is all a frivolous distraction from the real issues involved with the affairs of Epstein and Giselle Maxwell. Everyone wants to focus on sex and sex trafficking to important people. Every name that is listed is now called a client, an intentional distraction from what the real questions should be.

Where did Jeffrey Epstein's money come from? No one asks and no one has yet to unravel where all the money came from. It does not appear that Epstein or Maxwell received any money from his supposed clients. So we are to assume he just arranged all these meetings and extravagant parties just to rub shoulders with the rich and famous? A distraction from the real motives for sure.

Then we are to believe that every person that was involved with Epstein was interested in underage women. This is just a distraction from Epstein's far bigger operation. He was able to arrange funds for charitable groups, He was able to find funds for research into medical and other endeavors. He was instrumental in getting the Clinton foundation off the ground. In defense of Clinton he was involved with Epstein in his fundraising and political issues, no one knows if sex had anything to do with Clinton's association. 

The intentional attempt to tie Donald Trump to Epstein has been obvious, a couple of pictures from some gatherings, but no mention of Trump's barring Epstein from Mar-a-logo. Many people knew Epstein, many people attended functions with Epstein, but no one has yet testified as to what these connections entailed.

It has been reported that in Epstein's New York mansion, every room in the house was wired for video and sound with a control room maintained by a permanent staff. Has anyone ever interviewed this staff? Has anyone ever seen these recordings? It is also claimed this same situation was conducted on the island and the ranch. Are we to suppose that Epstein was blackmailing these people for money? It is unlikely that such a thing would have not gotten around in those circles.

If you see the list of contacts, we see judges, we see renowned professors, we see leaders in industry, elected officials, all people with recognition and possible influence. I would expect that many of them are very carful people who knew better than be placed in a compromising position, but if only a small percentage took the bait, whatever that bait was, girls, boys, money, drugs or bribery this information could be stored, maybe for years, until a favorable ruling was needed, or a treatise from some professor on some issue or a close vote in some parliament or senate. The question is, who was behind Epstein's compromise business? A very big business.

Intelligence agencies have been known to target people who may be successful in the future as early as college years. Time when many engage in youthful activities that they would refrain from later in life. Many are also recruited in college for different roles. They are always looking to who may be an important person in the future. Most of these files and information may be worthless, but a few may be very valuable in the future. 

Again, no one is asking what was Epstein and Maxwell's motives? Who was their employer and where did they get all that money? Where are all the tapes and recordings? Where are all the files? Was their employer a government agency like the CIA or Mi6 or both, or a private group with a more sinister motive? Again, it is easier to chase stories of innuendo concerning sex and moral failings of the rich and famous rather than even ask the real questions that should be answered.

Originally published 1/4/24

Chronology of Ukraine conflict.

 

NATO EXPANSION IS AT ROOT OF DISPUTE

BAD DECISION WITH HISTORIC CONSEQUENCES

While we hear lots of narratives about the desire of Putin to reestablish the old Soviet Union, it is in fact just a false narrative. The real cause of this conflict is NATO expansion to the borders of the Russian federation and Russia's refusal to submit to this threat to their security. It is not different than a Chinese or Russian alliance with Canada or Mexico that would put weapons and bases on the United States border. That would be unacceptable to the United States and to every administration in history.

NATO, the north Atlantic Treaty organization, was a cold war arrangement to counter the Soviet Union and its satellite countries, "The Warsaw Pact". The Warsaw pact was dissolved in 1991.

When the Soviet Union allowed independence of its eastern European satellites and the reunification of Germany the United states pledged that NATO would not expand any further east and that reunified Germany would be a NATO member. This was in 1991. Total of 16 members.

1999, NATO expanded east with Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. Russia complained, but took no action.

2004, NATO expanded with the addition of Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia And Slovenia. Russia again complained but took no action.

2008, The U.S. in a speech by  George Bush 11, invited Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO. This was responded to with warnings from Russia that it was unacceptable and that Russia would not allow NATO on their borders. It was followed by a Russian intervention in Georgia.

2009, NATO expanded with Albania and Croatia.

2014, the United States and Western European nations engineered and assisted in the overthrow of the elected government in Ukraine. The country was divided politically with the western region wanting to join NATO and the eastern region wanting to be a neutral country. The eastern region declared independence and an internal war broke out between the separatists in the east and the Kiev government. The deposed leader Victor Yanukovych had pledged to reach a peaceful arrangement with Russia. He was labeled as a Russian puppet by the west. The United States led by Victoria Nuland and Joe Biden spend $5 billion to help with the ouster of Yanukovych and picked the next leader of Ukraine.

Russia responded by helping to have Crimea declare independence from Ukraine and had elections with the Crimeans overwhelming voting to be reunited with Russia.  

The Eastern Ukrainian revolt continued with over 14,000 civilians dying in the Donbass region from shelling and attempts to retake the area. 

Russian, France, Germany and Ukraine reached an agreement called the Minx accords with the hope of protected rights for the Russian population in eastern Ukraine. There was the Minx 1 and Minx 2 agreements which the west never held up their side of the bargain. The leaders of both Germany and France later admitted it was just a stalling strategy to arm Ukraine for war with Russia.

2019, Volodymyr Zelensky elected on anti corruption and making peace with Russia platform. On March 11, 2021 Zelensky made the following statements.

"The document defines a set of measures of a diplomatic, military, economic, information, humanitarian and other nature, aimed at restoring territorial integrity and state sovereignty of Ukraine within the internationally recognized borders through the deoccupation and reintegration of Crimea".

This was followed by Ukraine increasing the troops in the Donbass and this followed by Russia massing troops on the Ukraine border.

The situation escalated with NATO pledging support and Putin offering a new security arrangement for Europe, with Ukraine being a neutral non aligned country. This was dismissed by the West with disdain, claiming Russia had no vote in the matter. 

Eventually on Feb. 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine with a force of 190,000 troops. This force was far too few to actually occupy Ukraine and it has been revealed this was an attempt to trigger serious negotiations.

It has also been revealed that a tentative agreement was reached in Ankara in March 2022, just 1 month after the onset. Russia withdrew its forces from Kiev in a sign of good faith. It has also been revealed by those independent negotiators that the UK and the U.S. insisted that Ukraine could win this conflict and not to negotiate a settlement.

Russia then withdrew it forces into a defensive position and held elections in 4 oblasts of eastern Ukraine with a referendum that agreed to be annexed into Russia. Russia then mobilized its reserves and went on a war footing, increasing production of weapons' and materials.

The west responded by levying 10 rounds of economic sanctions and in effect estranged Russia from western commerce. So far, Russia has prospered while western Europe is beset with energy shortages and the prospect of economic decline.

Massive amounts of western equipment, training ads supplies have not yielded any serious results in pushing back Russia's defensive lines. Ukraines much heralded counteroffensive is over and now Russia is incrementally destroying Ukraines army and equipment.

While Russia wanted a neutral non aligned Ukraine, Ukraine has now lost 25% of its country. It now appears that Russia is anticipating to move west to the Dnieper river and to include Odessa before it will be ready for any negotiations. Russia no longer has any credible counterpart for negotiation and it appears this conflict will be decided on the battlefield.

This Ukraine conflict has become a pivotal moment in world history. It appears that it has triggered the creation of a multipolar political and economic world. Irreconcilable lines have been crossed and the narrative has been juvenile and counter productive. The best hope is that it will soon end and the west will accept failure. Hopefully, Ukraine can salvage some of its country and the world can transition into a future reality, peacefully.

Ukraine: obsolete weapons disposal and expo.

 ONLY WINNER IN UKRAINE IS WEAPONS MANUFACTURERS

NATO TO NOW STANDARDIZE WITH U.S. WEAPONS

After 2 years of conflict in Ukraine the supply of Soviet era weapons, which was the mainstay of eastern European countries, is now almost expended. The U.S. incentivised the transfer of all these T-72 tanks and Mig fighters to be given to Ukraine by promising to sell them all more modern advanced and standardized weapons in the future. 

We can expect that the major talking point for the future is that all NATO weapons will need to be standardized so that all of the NATO military can easily operate these weapons. This may very well now end the manufacture of German Leopard tanks and other European designs to be replaced by U.S. manufactured or licensed weapons. 

The huge stockpile of Soviet era weapons has been very quickly dispatched and will now need to be be replaced with more modern and standardized weapons. It will be likely the biggest boom in the weapons industry in half a century. It has been reported that the industries backlog is now up to near $800 billion in orders. Then there is the impetus for $ Trillions in new advanced weapons that have been showcased or found to be needed after the failure of many of the present weapons.

While this may be a mother load of business for western countries, it is only part of the worlds weapons business. While HyMars and storm shadow missiles have proved effective, patriot air defense, and armored vehicles may now soon need to be rethought. 

On the Russian side, the second biggest manufacturer of weapons with a very large possible clientele, their air defense systems seem to be doing very well as is their fast learning curve in electronic counter measures and now drones. Their Hypersonic cruise missiles seem to have no defense. As Ukraines air defenses are being eliminated we may also see the use of some other not as yet used Russian weapons. It is reported that Russia has been steadily increasing their research and development into many space age weapons systems. 

While China has engaged in some arms business, if it decides to enter the competition, you can expect they will be very competitive.

We can expect that in next few years we will hear of the weapons gap and the need to spend $ Trillions on new and improved weapons. It will be interesting how more can be added to the already $880 billion defense budget while now running a $2 trillion a year budget deficit and servicing a $34 Trillion debt. Maybe the first order of business should be a serious audit of the defense budget and eliminating the $ billions of graft and over pricing. It is a fact, that Russia and China, with defense budgets a fraction of the United States, are getting a lot more bang for their rubles an yuan.