Zelensky's term ends: Now what?

 ZELENSKY IS NO LONGER THE ELECTED PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE

TERM ENDED MAY 20, 2024

Volodymyr Zelensky was elected in April 2019 and was sworn in on May 20. 2019 for a 5 year term. On Feb. 24 the 2022 Zelensky declared martial law and suspended all elections until 6 months after the end of hostilities. The parliament has agreed to this situation.

The fact that Zelensky is no longer considered by many as the legitimate president of Ukraine will likely have some consequences in the future. The war is not likely to be over for some time, so elections will not be able to be held for possibly years. 

Russia has stated that Zelensky is now not protected and is a legitimate military target. The expected candidates for the presidency may very well now push for elections, and the military, which seems to be increasingly less supportive, may have ideas of their own.

Zelensky should have allowed elections in those provinces not in the conflict zone, it would have been an opportunity to show his support among the electorate and would have also given him an out if they no longer support him. It would have also demonstrated to the world that Ukraine is really a democracy. With this situation it opens up many paths for intrigue and instability.

It can now be expected that internal conflicts within the government will become more intense. Zelensky originally ran on coming to an agreement with Russia on their festering disputes, but shortly after his election he took a hard line adversarial position with Russia. Elections would have demonstrated whether he still had support of the electorate. With a void of a way to express that support or non-support it will likely create dangerous alternatives.

Zelensky now believes west never wanted Ukraine win.

 INCREMENTAL ESCALATION TO KEEP UKRAINE IN FIGHT

GOAL WAS TO WEAKEN RUSSIA

The charade is still ongoing, keep Ukraine fighting, give them just enough to hold on, but never enough to win. A Ukrainian win would be very dangerous to the world order, but a weakened impotent Russia will help to maintain western supremacy. It seems that has been the plan from the beginning and both Russia and Ukraine have suffered greatly from the great Ukraine project.

After 27 months of war, it is now very clear, Ukraine can not prevail in this conflict. Russia is probably stronger than when the war started. The west is probably now weaker than when this war started.

When this conflict began Russia had less than 200 thousand soldiers, never enough to conquer Ukraine and hold the territory.  The Russian goal was to force negotiations for a neutral Ukraine and to keep NATO off its doorstep. The wests goal was to tie up Russia and bleed it in the hope of some kind of internal revolution. The best laid plans can often go astray.

If the west would have given Ukraine what it eventually gave them after this conflict started, they could have pushed Russia back to its borders. Russia had a small army, without combat experience and not very well organized. The reality is no one wanted Russia to actually lose or Ukraine to win, just to weaken Russia and hopefully to open it up for exploitation, Ukraine was the tool or hammer to achieve that goal. 

Russia has survived everything that the west has thrown at it, economic warfare at every level, continuous warfare on their border, but it is now stronger and better equipped and with an army of over 1.3 million. It has also resigned itself to an economic divorce from the west and is looking to and swiftly moving into economic alliances to the east and south. This reality will have dire economic repercussions to Europe and to the western world.

So the charade is continuing, but clearly just that. Ukraine will not become a member of NATO or the EU. Rumors or threats of NATO troops is just more smoke to keep Ukraine fighting, hopefully until after the upcoming elections. New NATO members are warned by western intelligence,  Russia will invade them, its goal is to rule the world. The reality is, Russia does not need more real estate, it just wants real security on its borders.

The west hopes Ukraine will indeed fight to the last Ukrainian, and if their hoped for miracle of weakening Russia does not happen, then move on to the next plan to rule the world.

China, Russia solidify economic cooperation.

 LONG TERM CONTRACTS ON ENERGY AND RESOURCES

UNMATCHED MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL AGREEMENTS

If you want to understand the relationship with Russia and China, just look at a map. With a border measuring over 2600 miles it is only natural that a friendly and economically beneficial arrangement would be in the best interests of both countries. This arrangement will also benefit all those countries that are adjacent to these borders. The recently enacted long term contracts on energy will give both partners a secure future, Russia, a steady income for some of their vast petroleum reserves and China a secure source of energy for their vast manufacturing capability.

Russia is also a leader in nuclear energy, not just the basic resources, but the technology of modern efficient nuclear reactors that will be marketed around the world. Chinese manufacturing and Russian technology will be a potent team that will not likely be challenged by any western powers at this time.

While western Europe and the U.S. have undertaken a policy of sanctions and isolation toward both Russia and China, the effect in the long term will be the isolation of the west from what is expected to be a growing economic prosperity in the rest of the world. the west comprises of about 1 billion people, the rest is now 6 billion, a vast market that has much more growth potential.

While many claim that Russia and China are plotting to displace the western world, the reality is they are just focusing on friendly mutually beneficial relationships without ideological agendas. So far, their approach has a very good chance of becoming the economic plan for the future.

The United States is in the enviable position of being protected by large oceans on most of its borders, It has the resources to be a self sustaining world power. It is in fact squandering its position by attempting to rule the world and impose its rule over everyone, it is failing. It is weakened by excess debt, internal division and a lack of any real objective view of the world. It still believes it can rule by intimidation and force, but the reality is the rest of the world is moving on.

Western Europe's chances of prosperity a very dim, they have adopted suicidal economic and cultural policies that leave them with only a declining economic future. Both the United States and western Europe still believe that they are essential to the economic well being of the rest of the world. While that may be partly true today, it is going to be very short term as the rest of the world is moving on.

The BRICS group has recently introduced BRICS pay to replace the western Swift settlement system. While it is still in its infancy it will free those who desire to escape economic sanctions and manipulation. 

Russia has recently opened the Moscow gold exchange which will provide a trading platform for the major gold producers which most are already in the BRICS groups. Presently the world gold price is set by the London exchange which is accused of market manipulation by thousand of contracts that actually represent more gold than there is in existence.  

It is a fact that the world is changing quickly and dramatically. the west is losing its leverage to control its direction by its present policies. Its best hope is a resignation that it will require more respect for others and hope to coexist in a mutually beneficial cooperation. It will require an inward housecleaning to prepare these counties for this new future.

Is Fico assassination attempt a warning against neutrality?

THREATS AND SANCTIONS, NOW VIOLENCE

KEEPING THE HERD CORRALLED

Yesterday, was the first assassination attempt in the EU in many years, sadly it most likely will not be the last. Prime minister Robert Fico was shot several times as he talked to people after a meeting in Slovakia. He has been under obvious pressure for his refusal to send more military support to Ukraine. He, like a few others has taken the position that he would keep his country out of the Ukraine conflict and wished to remain neutral. Those who dare to take a neutral position have been subjected to enormous pressure to join ranks with the majority. 

Viktor Orban, of Hungary, has also been under enormous pressure, he also wants to keep his country out of this conflict and then of course he is labeled an ally of Russia, never someone looking out for the best interests of his country over the collective in Brussels and Washington.

Neutrality has historically been the often admired position of such countries as Switzerland and Sweden, but that is no longer acceptable. Neutrality is now considered the enemy of the power centers in Brussels, London and Washington. Sweden has recently dropped its historic neutrality and Switzerland continues to be pressured.

Other targets of this pressure is Modi in India and of course the former president of Pakistan, Imran Khan, who was removed with a no confidence vote with documented pressure from Washington. When he continued to campaign for reelection, being the most popular candidate in Pakistan, he was shot in an assassination attempt, then finally jailed before the election. It is all a sad commentary on the state of REAL democracy, so often used as a slogan without real substance.

It is very likely the instances of political violence will increase in Europe and very likely in Ukraine, as the now president Zelinsky's legal term ends in 4 days. With elections cancelled and political opposition banned it will somewhere end with increased internal conflict that can no longer be settled at the ballot box.

It is obvious that Democracy is now pretty much just a window dressing on the growing authoritarian powers in the western world.

Democrats now shift inflation blame to "Corporate gouging"

 PLAN TO FIX IT BY GOVERNMENT FINES AND PENALTIES

EXPECT MORE INFLATION TO COME

Democrats have now realized that inflation is becoming an election year problem. Of course, in the Marxist tradition, business is always a handy villain to blame for the results of their own policies. 

Business has been savaged by high energy prices a result of Democrat policy since inauguration day in 2021. Shortages of workers and pushes for high wages has increased the overhead of all businesses, that is eventually paid for by the end consumer.

Shortages of many materials and delays have also raised the cost of most all goods, many of these shortages can also be traced to be the results of trade policies that are attempting to use trade a bargaining chip. This accompanied by sanctions placed on many foreign suppliers have raised the costs of most everything. 

Then there is the unprecedented and unsustainable deficit spending that is resulting in $1 trillion of additional debt every 100 days. This lowers the buying power of the dollar and results in increased INFLATION. It also raise interest rates which also raises the costs to every business that use seasonal credit or credit for expansion or upgrades. 

Every policy of the present crop of Democrat politicians is inflationary and there is no end in sight. Americans better buckle up, because the policies are still underway and may not be able to be reversed for years. The reality is that inflation is most likely going to increase and be sustained for the foreseeable future.

High prices and inflation is not being caused by business, they are just as much victims of inflation as everyone, but it all ends up on the bill of the end user. Eventually the bill for unrestrained spending ends up with consumer as all these inflation causing policies are paid by the last man in the supply line. YOU.

Russia opens northern offensive. Ukraine's days are numbered.

 RUSSIA MAKES LARGE GAINS IN KHARKIV

DRAMATICALLY EXPANDS CONFLICT LINE

The much anticipated Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region has finally happened. It should be no surprise, as many have been predicting that this would occur soon after the annual victory day celebrations in Moscow. The question is what is Russia's strategy with this expansion of the conflict line. One is that Russia has wanted to push the Ukrainians away from being in range of its southern cities that have been targeted by Ukraine. The other is they will soon be within artillery range of Kharkiv city, this will add to the bombing and rocket attacks that have been effective at evacuating the 2nd largest city in Ukraine. 

While some believe that Russia will soon assault Kharkiv city, it is doubtful. They so far have used a light force for this attack, not enough for an assault on the city, but enough to cause Ukraine to send reserves from other places in the conflict area. It is likely they are just stretching the Ukrainians thinner and will take advantage of that situation wherever it is made available. 

It would not be surprising if Russia also opened some sort of offensive in the Kherson region, particularly if Ukraine takes troops from that area. 

The reality is that Russia has 100's of thousands of reserve forces waiting in western Russia and the Ukrainians literally have no reserves. Their army is exhausted and on the verge of collapse. It appears they will not be able to maintain this defense much longer.

Russia on the other hand seems content to make just incremental gains and keep decimating the Ukrainian army and equipment. They may feel that if they continue in this strategy they can prevail without even fighting urban conflicts in Kharkiv or Kiev. Ukraine is now on borrowed time, unless NATO comes to their rescue with troops on the ground. Another reason Russia wants to keep the fight in eastern Ukraine. If NATO wants to fight with Russia they will need to do it on Russia's terms 700 miles from Poland, but near to Russia's supply lines. A situation that has been the downfall of many armies in the past.

The results of, "The post industrial society".

 THE WEST IS A POST INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY

CAN IT BE REVERSED?

In 1971 the book, "The post industrial society " became a bestseller. It predicted that we were in the beginning of a new era were the United States would become the hi-technology leader and would no longer be a manufacturing based economy. I read this book and believed at the time that such a society would not be possible and that if it did happen it would inevitably lead to an economic disaster. Today, now over 50 years later we are indeed in a post industrial society.

While this book was indeed prophetic or the author Alain Touraine had special access to the machinations of the thought leaders of the time, many still discount that we are now in a post industrial or manufacturing society. 

We were told that the United States was going to be the Hi-tech center of the world and that globalization will let the others manufacture the results of that technology. While that may not have been the conclusion in that book, it became the many repeated litany we heard for decades.

Some like Ross Perot and Patrick Buchanan warned of the giant sucking sound of manufacturing jobs that would be leaving the nation. They were routinely labeled racists, anti-Semitic or any other label that would attempt to discount their warnings. 

While we witnessed the steady evaporation of all jobs that made things, from clothing, shoes, basic necessities to even steel mills and foundries, it was a slow process that did not immediately shock the populace. 

Basic economics always taught that wealth was created by the combination of raw material and labor to produce a product of greater wealth than the  input of those resources. Manufacturing was the income side of the national ledger and everything else, especially government was on the expense side. 

While high tech did become a major part of the U.S. economy, it was always short lived. It is only hi-tech for several years, if not months, as those with the growing wealth and manufacturing base would quickly incorporate that high tech to the income side of their ledger. While we were expanding our expense side of the ledger by buying our necessities from abroad and feeding a growing government appetite to often camouflage the results of the wealth leaving the country. Redistribution taking the place of wealth creation. The results can only be a declining wealth of the nation.

While many say times are good and and we are all doing well, don't forget that the present economy if maintained by debt of $34 Trillion that is growing daily and also consumer and corporate debt that is unprecedented in history. Net worth is always assets minus debt, many have no net worth.

The Ukraine conflict should be a an eye opening moment in western economic reality. Russia, the gas station economy of the world, shocked the present western leadership by being able, even with unprecedented sanctions, to out produce the combined production of the west in military hardware and supplies. Any serious economist should have been able to note that 40% of the economies of Russia and China are made up of manufacturing, but the west is near 10%. Russia has a near equal manufacturing ability as the U.S. and China had 5x the manufacturing capability of the U.S.. 

While the loss of wealth creation is one effect of this situation the other is the loss of the knowledge and the common sense that is acquired by being involved in the manufacturing process. In todays specialized world many no longer have the basic common knowledge to navigate basic living. They are dependent on the service industry to do most basic household functions. The lack of this kind of knowledge and experience makes rational decisions about the real world more difficult. This is manifest in election decisions and also in the leadership of the country who no longer have the basic knowledge of the real world to help in making serious decisions. Emotions and high hopes take the place of sound economic and long term planning for a prosperous future.

If the U.S. would decide that it needed to become self sufficient in manufacturing and seriously begin now it would take 30 years to be accomplished. I suspect such a decision will more likely be debated for the next 30 years.