Gaza progress?

 PHASE 1 AGREEMENT

HOSTAGE AND PRISONER EXCHANGE, CEASEFIRE

It seems that an agreement has been made on the first part of a Gaza peace deal. Hamas will release the hostages, both dead and alive, and Israel will release Palestinian prisoners. Israel will stop military action and withdraw to a prearranged position. There is still some uncertainty about what prisoners will be released. While this is an agreement, it has not yet happened.

There is concern that as soon the hostages are released, Israel will resume its offensive. This has happened before, but it may be a different situation as the world is focused on this crisis and it may be difficult to pull off a false flag or blame a breakdown on Hamas. There are lot of parties involved in this process and is the best hope of success so far.

The ultimate sticking point is going to be security and enforcement. A situation where Israel is out of Gaza and security and order is maintained by a third party. The makeup of the governing authority will be another problem. If this deal evolves into a resumption of the situation of a Gaza prison, it will not last. We can assume there are forces that will not want this to be a success.

Then there is still the possibility of an impending Israeli attack on Iran. That would lead to a suspension of negotiations as war would create a dangerous environment for the negotiators. Extended negotiations will also make resumption of the Iran war difficult and most believe that as time goes on, Iran will be more prepared to defend against an attack.

It is doubtful that this situation can be resolved quickly, the major questions for a long term solution are ahead and they could take the rest of the year. This is going to put Israel into a dilemma about how to proceed. Hopefully it will end with a satisfactory Gaza plan and the end of hopes for an Iran war.

Desperation everywhere. Ukraine, Euroland, Israel.

WE WONDER WHAT COMES NEXT 

EXPOSURE CONTINUES IN MANY PLACES

It seems we are bombarded daily with a narrative of desperation. No solutions, no, at least no public, strategy or plans to deal with multiple crisis around the world.

Ukraine, approaching 3 years of massive death and destruction, the 21st. century should be labeled the era of death and destruction, and the policy by the West seems to be just more of the same, threats and escalation will bring Russia to capitulate and kneel before them at any minute. It is indicative of biblical prophecy of delusion that ends very badly. The latest desperate act is to offer strategic missiles to Ukraine to attack Russia, of course everyone now knows these weapons will be manned by U.S. personnel and assets. In fact, war that can only end in a nuclear confrontation.

Then there is Euroland, desperately seeking relevance, with economies on the verge of collapse, political instability and leaders whose focus is, is, is who knows? Engaging in political chicanery in Romania, Moldova and at home to hold power. Then talking of conscription and massive borrowing to defend themselves against the self promoted fear of Russian invasion. Sadly, they may be the most desperate of them all.

The U.S. while many still advocate for "America first" is torn by foreign influence from many places. This is indicated by shifting policies daily. If guided by "America First" it would not be that hard, but it seems America had become entangled with foreign powers who demand allegiance or else. The or else is not defined, but is assumed that it could spell danger for family and loved ones or worse. Washington knew what he was talking about, when warning about getting involved in European politics, this could apply to many places. Domestically it seems politicians are desperate to find a cause to rally the citizens to their side, an increasingly difficult trick. Even a government shutdown is now ho hum to most, is this the result of continuously declaring the wolf is at the door.

It seems the British empire still lives, even when it is a shadow of its former self, but has been able through its massive intelligence network, which is probably larger than its military, to be able to cause division and instability and enlist the U.S. military to preserve and enhance its economic power when necessary. With a military of under 50,000 men and a leader with an 18% approval rating, it is the poster child for desperation.

Then of course, there is Israel, whose position as the underdog, was well cultivated to gain the support of many around the world. It seems the lowly Gazans have now usurped their position as the major underdog in the region. Only by the arrogance and hubris of its leaders have they been able to lose their most valued status. Due to their own self destructive polices, they have now set out on another desperate act, and that is to visibly and openly indicate that they will resurrect their former positive image by taking over TIK-TOK and and even have eyes on X. This coupled with openly paying influencers to enhance their image is indeed a spectacular sign of desperation. I suspect that it will result in a further decline of its approval.

Desperation is indeed visible everywhere, the hope is that this desperation will be followed with acceptance, acceptance that the world is changing and dealing with that change will be in the best interest of everyone. The alternative will, without a doubt, lead to much more death and destruction.

$4000 Gold, Bubble or flight from unbacked paper currency?

 GOLD OUTPERFORMS OTHER ASSETS

ALL CURRENICIES LOSING PURCHASING POWER

Today Gold is trading at $3950 an ounce, an amazing number, and it seems no limit to its rise. Silver is at $48 an ounce, very near its all time high and likely to break that in the near future. One would think due to its rapid rise that it is long overdue for a correction due to profitmaking, the dilemma is, sell it for paper currency that is losing its purchasing power at an accelerating rate.

The current U.S. budget has a deficit of near $2 trillion, almost 1/3 of the budget. This translates into further erosion of the purchasing power of the dollar, while this is bad, it is still the best in the western world, the lesser of other currencies evils.

It may still be true that Gold is in bubble territory. It is doubtful that there are many retail average buyer of gold at these prices. That is now probably reserved for silver buying. The Gold to silver ratio is now 82 to 1. Historical, for over 5000 years, that number has been between 12 and 15 to 1. so is gold overvalued or is silver undervalued. At 15 to 1 silver would command a price of $263, or using silver as a basis, Gold at 15 to 1 would be $720.  While gold may be overvalued, silver may be still much undervalued.

Gold it is being reported is being purchased by Central Banks and institutional investors. It seems it is moving out of Europe and into the U.S. and contracts are being liquidated and the gold is being taken for possession. For years gold contracts have been traded back and forth without anyone actually taking possession, that is no longer the case. It is not clear who is taking possession of all this gold, there is speculation that it is the U.S. treasury. The biggest market for gold contracts is the London bullion market and the Comex. Trading for physical bullion is conducted in Moscow and Shanghai where contracts are not sold. There has for decades been accusations that the trading of contracts has been effective in keeping the price of gold undervalued.

The other impetus for the accumulation of gold is the new trading settlement system that is evolving in the non western countries of the world. This is called BRICS-Pay and is a block chain electronic system that consummates transactions in seconds and is done in trading partners currency. This is less costly and quicker than the current SWIFT system. It also is setting up bullion vaults around the world were trade deficits will be settled in gold. The first 2 are in Shanghai and Saudi Arabia. An example is that China can buy oil form Saudi Arabia in Yuan and Saudi Arabia can use that Yuan to make purchases in China and if there is a surplus it can be exchanged for gold. Saudis could use their currency to make purchase in China in the same way. it will make it necessary that trading partners have reserves in gold available. This system will eliminate the need to have U.S. dollar reserves or assets. If the U.S. would be part of this system it could also engage in the same manner. It seems this system will encourage balanced budgets and balanced trading or you better have a large reserve of gold.

The BRICS do not desire that any country's currency becomes the reserve currency, which they believe has led to abuse. While there is talk of a new gold backed currency in the future, the present system may be just a step in that direction.

The reality is that the abuse of fiat or non backed paper currency is coming to an end. Every historical move to fiat currency has ended poorly. In reality, it is a type of fraud that robs workers and savers of their wealth.

 

Hamas says yes, with amendments, Trump orders ceasefire.

 DEAL POSSIBLE, IF COMPROMISE

129 KILLED IN WEEKEND GAZA BOMBING

President Trump released a letter from Hamas accepting his peace plan with certain reservations. The letter was very articulate and constructed to give Trump hope that a deal was possible. They agreed to release the hostages, a ceasefire, and the acceptance of an independent governing body. They will most likely not accept disarmament and one must wonder how Tony Blair became part of this deal, since he is very unpopular in the Arab community for past behavior. Trump has enthusiastically agreed to negotiate details by sending negotiators to begin talks in Cairo today.

Trump also ordered Israel to stop the bombing, but reports are out that 129 were killed in attacks in Gaza over the weekend. There has not been much of a clear response from Israel as yet.

While everyone is hopeful, it is far from a done deal. While disarmament is one of those problems, another is how will any such deal be enforced. It cannot be possible with Israel being the security enforcer inside Gaza. Security will need to be made up of independent forces not U.S., British or European. Malaysia has already volunteered 20,000 troops,  maybe as independent as possible. A joint venture would be best. For a new independent governing body be successful, Israel needs to withdraw from Gaza. Gaza is not Israeli territory. It may be best if a wall be erected between the two for increased security on both sides.

It seems there are talks and approval of these negotiations by the majority of the neighbors in the region. 

World opinion has dramatically turned against Israel, especially after their attempted assassination of the negotiators in Qatar, these same negotiators are now in Cairo. The magnifying glass is now focused on Israel, they broke the last ceasefire deal. There are many who are skeptical that they actually want an end to the Gaza conflict until the people are gone. It seems there is also growing opposition inside of Israel after 2 years of war.

Then there is still the looming question of war with Iran, which seems imminent. Would war with Iran be a quick death for any end to the Gaza conflict?

It is unlikely that real peace is possible without a change of policy from Israel and that may require new leadership.

Bait and Switch Gaza deal dead. WW3 risks rise.

 MEDIA EVENT WITHOUT REAL SOLUTIONS

NO ONE CAN BE TRUSTED, NO GOOD FAITH

It is clear that the deal for Gaza will not be accepted, nor will it be renegotiated. It has been revealed that the Arab community which tentatively approved a deal, saw a far different deal when displayed on national Tv. It seems after meeting with Netanyahu, the deal was changed to make it unacceptable to Hamas and the other Arab leaders, probably intentionally. Of course, now it can be blamed on Hamas and the killing can continue. The deal basically required surrender and perpetual subjugation by Israel.

It also appears that a major attack on Iran is in the works and there is speculation that this will be coordinated with escalation in Ukraine and even a possible attack on Venezuela. Is the plan now to cut oil supplies to China from the middle east, destabilize Iran as vital link in the belt and road initiative and tie up Russia in Ukraine to avoid intervention? A complicated and dangerous plan with many risks. 

There is little doubt that an attack on Iran is being prepared, it seems large amounts of materials and resources moving to the middle east can not be concealed. At the same time we see France illegally boarded and detained a Russian ship in international waters with the public acknowledgment that they want to destabilize Russia's supply chain, an act of war.  Estonia also is advocating embargoing all sea traffic out of St. Petersburg, another illegal act. All this is coupled with political election shenanigans in Romania and Moldova to possibly open another front over Ukraine. There are continuing reports of expanded U.S. preparations for an operation on Venezuela to control that oil and deny it to China and other buyers.

One can expect the subjects of these attacks understand these realities better than anyone, and one must wonder when they may come to believe that they would be best served with a massive pre-emptive attack.

While for a time it appeared we had moved back from a potential WW3, any such plan will indeed be WW3, once it starts, the odds are in favor of ending in a nuclear confrontation.

Is Venezuela a threat to U.S. ?

 WHAT'S UP WITH POSSIBLE WAR WITH VENEZUELA?

DO WE NEED MORE FIRES TO DEAL WITH?

Speculation abounds that the U.S. is expected to take military action with Venezuela. We know that opposition to the government of Venezuela has been a hot topic ever since the election of the socialist government of Hugo Chavez in 1998. Chavez put in many policies of redistribution and nationalized much of the industries in the country. It seems he was elected in a democratic elections and popular with a majority of the country, by a small margin.  He died at an early age in 2013 and was followed by Nicolas Maduro, as he was vice president.  He was elected later in a special election with a narrow margin of 1.5%. In later elections the last which was in 2024 there have been accusations of corruption and fraud. In 2019 many claimed that the country was moving to a dictatorship and the U.S. and Organization of America States considered the president of the Assembly, Juan Guaido as the legitimate president. 

Accusations by Maduro of assassination attempts and internal unrest fanned by the CIA have been prevalent for years. John Bolton under Trump advocated military intervention in Venezuela in Thump's first term. At that time the accusation was spreading communism or his human rights violations in Venezuela.

Recently there have accusations of Venezuela being a major drug supplier to the U.S. While we can expect that there is drug business in Venezuela it is most likely dwarfed by such business in Mexico, Columbia, Canada, and even the U.S.  

As for Communism and socialism, I do recall the whole reason for the war in Viet Nam was the spread of communism, the  domino theory. Today Viet Nam is still a dedicated communist country with government advocacy for communism on the internet, yet it is visited by American presidents and has most favored trade arrangements. I expect, like much like our middle east policy, it is all about oil. Oil that Venezuela would sell in any amount, one would desire to buy.

The biggest method of the continuation of dictatorships and communist dictatorships in particular, is the always continuous external threats, sanctions and fear of foreign intervention.  Communism and socialism are failed economic policies that will in time fail, as in the Soviet Union and even in the western democracies. Foreign intervention and threats will usually unify the citizens around even the leaders they despise and thus prolong their power.

Secondly any military intervention in South America will raise red flags and anti-Americanism to new level in other places that view the U.S. as a bully and needs to be feared, opening the door for real opponents to take advantage.

I suspect that U.S. has enough crisis that it needs to address, without looking for more. Venezuela is not Panama or Grenada and the world is far different than in the 1980's. 

Military reform, a positive move for military morale.

HOPEFULLY THE END OF SOCIAL ENGINEERING IN THE MILITARY 

ALL STANDARDS TO BE BASED ON MERIT

Yesterday, Pete Hegseth, the head of the defense department, made his big speech before the high ranking members of the military. It was a surprisingly well delivered and appropriate speech in an effort to restore the integrity and morale of the United States military. It was in effect declaring the end of social engineering in the military, an end of all woke policies and return of uniform standards for all without special cutouts or exceptions, especially for combat soldiers.

All soldiers would need to qualify on a semi-annual basis, combat standards would be based on male expected performance. Uniform and personal hair and beard standards would be uniform as in former times. He stated that these standards would be the same for all members of the military.

I would hope that there would be still exceptions for the older commanders of the military, if look at the past we have seen in war some of the best commanders would not have been able to compete physically with 20 year old soldiers, General Schwarzkopf and in fact the present commander in chief would be good examples. Many of the high ranking generals of the past were valuable for their experience and decision making ability rather than physical ability. 

I watched all of Hegseth's speech and part of Trump's, I think it would have been best to have let Hegseth have his day, Trump did his usual political highlighting of accomplishments. The major statement he made was reiterating that the U.S. is in effect, out of the Ukraine conflict. Weapons would be sold to the EU members and they can do what they want with them. He made it clear that there will not be any more aid to Ukraine. We will see if this is true.

Many believed this was some sort of preparation for war, but I believe it was just the much needed reform to make the military a high morale and cohesive fighting force, as in the past.