Ukraine offensive over, Russia readies offensive.

 STRATEGY SEEMS TO BE ABOUT TO BE SWAPPED

UKRAINIANS SURRENDERING INCREASES

Reports from Ukraine indicate that the 4 month long Ukrainian offensive is just about over. While there may be some last ditch attempts to break the Russian defense, it appears there is no credible ability to make any serious advances.

At the same time, Russia is setting the stage for a return to the offensive by preparing the plans in the northern area. They have been systematically destroying supply routes and infrastructure of the Ukrainian army in the northern part of the conflict line. Some anticipate that this is were the Russians will begin their new offensive. British intelligence claims that the Russians plan to moving west, capturing Karkov and everything east of the Dnieper river. This is a natural dividing line of Ukraine, and it is also likely they will target capturing Odessa, the last remaining port for Ukraine and a vulnerability to Crimea.

When this is accomplished, Russia will be ready to negotiate some sort of long term arrangement.

It is also reported that this will not be a rapid blitzkrieg attack but a slow, grinding methodical progression.The increased use of Russian airpower will be more available, since Ukraine air defensivies have been seriously compromised.

It is also reported from numerous sources that the rate of surrendering Ukrainian servicemen is increasing. The Russians have instituted a radio channel specifically for anyone desiring to surrender with instructions on how to safely surrender and are promising food, shelter and medical care. They claim that over 10,000 have surrendered using this method.

It seems the Ukrainian military is made up of conscripts who are just trying to survive and those willing to fight to the end. It can be very dangerous for Ukrainians to be suspected of willing to give up as they can be imprisoned or worse. 

While this conflict may continue for months, it is clear that the present offense/defense strategy is about to switch sides and without some sort of serious intervention by NATO troops the results are very predictable.

Were Epstein's women a compulsion or a tool?

EPSTEIN MAY HAVE BEEN IN THE COMPROMISE BUSINESS

ENTREPRENEUR OR EMPLOYEE

Jeffrey Epstein has been in the news for months, his arrest, disclosures about his associations with people of influence, and his questionable death. It is assumed he was just a pervert that favored very young women, some under age. It is insinuated that anyone who had contact with Epstein was also involved with underage women. While some of this may be true, there are certainly a lot of unanswered questions.

Epstein was born in Brooklyn to middle class parents in 1953. He was assumed to be a gifted student graduating from High school at 16. He went on to college but never completed his studies. He taught Physics and Mathematics at a private school the 1970's .

In 1976 he went to work at Bear Stearns and by 1980 he had moved up to a limited partner. He specialized in advising wealthy clients and made many contacts in the rich and famous circles. He was regarded a financial wiz and had an outgoing and friendly persona. He opened his own business in 1981 after being involved in some irregularities with Bear Stearns. He specialized in recovering assets that were lost to investment fraud, sort of a high powered collection agency. It was in this era that he became in contact with powerful people who were involved in the International arms trade and some high government officials. He confided to some that he belonged to the intelligence community. It was also insinuated that during his first prosecution for trafficking in underage women the prosecutors were led to believe he was an intelligence employee.

In 1986 he became associated with billionaire Leslie Wexler who owned Limited and Victoria Secret. In 1991 he was granted power of Attorney and full power to manage all the Wexler Assets.

In the early 1990's  Epstein's fortune took a leap forward. During the 1990's he purchased a residence in Palm Beach, investment properties in Paris, France, a ranch in New Mexico, the largest residence in Manhattan, 21,000 sq. ft. and a private island in the Virgin Islands. It was in the early 1990's that he met Ghislaine Maxwell, the daughter of British media Tycoon Robert Maxwell. She moved to New York shortly after the death of her father, who was found floating in the Atlantic, it was ruled an accidental death, but many believed he was murdered.

Robert Maxwell was a survivor of the Holocaust, a member of the British government, it was claimed that he had connections to MI6, KGB and Mossad. He was a flamboyant member of parliament, a war hero and a mover in British politics and business.

So, it is assumed that Epstein was a rich pervert who used his contacts with the rich and famous associates to blackmail them for favors etc. Just some of the people who traveled and attended functions with Epstein, were George Mitchell, former Democratic senate leader, Prince Andrew, Bill Clinton, George Stephanopoulos, Katie Couric, Woody Allen, Harvey Weinstein, He was well acquainted with Rupert Murdock, Mike Bloomberg, Richard Branson, Michael Jackson, Alec Baldwin, the Kennedys, Rockefellers and Rothschilds, Tony Blair, Saudi Prince Bin Salman and many more. He was on the board of Rockefeller university, a member of the Trilateral Commission and Council of Foreign relations.

He was instrumental in forming the Clinton Global initiative and raised money for Harvard University and many science and mathematics endeavors.

Epstein was associated with the leading movers and shakers of the country, in philanthropy, academia, business and politics.

Why were they all willing and possibly eager to be in Epstein's circle? It could have been it was an opportunity to network with other wealthy, influential and powerful people.

All this, and no one has yet to uncover were his wealth came from, or were he held it. It is assumed it was held in off shore accounts. Very little is known about what he was actually doing to make a living. He did not charge people to go on trips to his Island. He paid all the employee's including the women involved in his endeavors. He held meetings and seminars in Science, philanthropy, investments,  etc. He often transported attendees at his functions on his private jet. What was Epstein's real business?

It has been reported that his Manhattan mansion was fully wired for sound and video. There was a secret room, fully staffed, that monitored everything that went on. The room was equipped with sleeping and bathroom facilities. Everything was wired for sound and video at his Palm beach residence and his Island in the Virgin Island.

It has long been the modus operandi of intelligence agencies to compromise people with influence or information with whatever their vice should be, sex, drugs, infidelity, homosexuality or entrap them with crooked business opportunities. While most people who are offered these entrapments will reject them, if carefully nurtured and cultivated in a safe trusted environment some will be compromised. These compromises can then be filed away and used in the future, possibly many years in the future. This could be an op-ed either supporting or in opposition to some proposal. It could be financial support for some supposed good cause. It could be a crucial vote on some legislation. The greater the compromise the greater the leverage.

The compromise could be an actual illegal or illicit act or possibly just a photo with an underage girl who asked a famous person for a picture to send home to her mom.

J.Edgar Hoover has been alleged to have dirt on everyone in government and owed his lifetime position to the leverage he had on those in office.

It seems that Epstein's move to this kind of partying and close encounters began with his association with Ghislaine Maxwell, who it is alleged was the procurer of these young women and the manager of Epstein's affairs. She took up residence just down the street in Manhattan.  One has to wonder if she was the real handler of this compromise business and Epstein was the schmoozer, good time guy who could gain the Trust of those involved.

The question is, was Epstein an entrepreneur in his own business or was he on the payroll for someone or some group who paid him and Ghislaine Maxwell very well for the information they could collect and provide. While all this is supposedly under investigation, few really believe that we will ever know.


originally published 12/30/19

9/28/23,  

Four years and no more information on Epstein, Maxwell or what happened to all the tapes, videos and lists of Epstein's contacts.

No more information as to where the money came from.

No media stories, 

No FBI investigation, all gone, all over, it is just another indication of just how corrupt and out of control things have become in the USA.

Billions on foreign aid in new budget.

 BUYING FRIENDS AND INFLUENCE IS GETTING MORE EXPENSIVE

$63 BILLION FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

There is no limit to how much must be invested or spent to secure friends and allies. The latest budget is bursting with new spending in foreign lands. The U.S. agency for international development is getting $63 billion to provide money for new infrastructure around the world including $7.2 billion for the pacific islanders. This includes green projects and other cause all at the expense of U.S. taxpayers.

Then there is another immediate $28 billion for Ukraine that is expected to be enhanced to over $100 billion in the coming year. This money will offer new weapons, but also pay fire fighters, first responders, government workers, their healthcare and pensions. In fact, Ukraine is now solely supported by the United states, likely receives more money than any U.S. state.

Earlier the government set aside over $9 billion for spreading democracy around the world. often through Non-government agency's that attempt to move other countries political systems to be more favorable to U.S. interests. 

The new defense budget is requesting $882 billion and with all the congressional and senate add ons will be the first $1 Trillion defense budget. Much of this money is spent on maintaining the 750 bases in 80 countries. Much of this money goes to foreign governments and suppliers who become dependent on U.S. dollars and hence are our paid friends. 

We could go on, but the reality is the /federal government is spending far above the level of sustainability. With a debt of over $33 Trillion and now expected to grow by $2 trillion in the next year, we can expect a further loss of the buying power of the dollar, increased prices for everything and a steady squandering of the wealth of the country. 

So in the next week we can hear the big spenders in Washington and its complicit media bellowing how the radicles in congress want to shut the government down. The spending will be approved, the government will continue in its delusions until it all collapses. Then we can hear who they will blame, but the bill will be paid by all Americans in one way or another.

Russian Ukraine strategy and nuclear threat.

 RUSSIA UNLIKELY TO NEED NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN UKRAINE

IF CONFLICT GOES NUCLEAR. UKRAINE WILL NOT BE THE TARGET

We continue to hear narratives that Russia could resort to tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Mostly the claim is that if Russia would be losing they would resort to nuclear weapons in desperation. Russia is in no need to use nuclear weapons to defeat Ukraine, even with the support of NATO.

The fact is that war is not with Ukraine, but with the United States. The reality is that the European NATO participants would never have engaged in this conflict if they had understood the consequences. The consequences that are now becoming reality for the European allies.

With U.S. planning, prompting, and faulty intelligence analysis they were able to persuade the NATO members that NATO expansion was a low risk endeavour and the Russia would either back down or be economically devastated by a conflict in Ukraine. They were sold a win, win bill of goods that has gone terribly bad, especially for the Ukrainians and the European NATO members. It is now becoming obvious that most would want out of this if they could. Sadly, there is now no way out with a positive political, economic or societal  result. 

If this conflict continues on its present course, Ukraine will not recover for generations. It will be a decades long economic burden for all involved. Russia is well aware of the present trend and understands that Europe will need to make a decision about its future very soon. Continuing on this path it is without a doubt going to lead to political and economic devastation. This is Russia's strategy, It is a long range attrition strategy for all those who are on the other side of this conflict. Realistically Russia is in the more secure position. It has energy and food, it is self sufficient, it can outlast Europe. 

I would expect that if given the opportunity, Europe would exit this tragedy quickly, but they are under the power in many way of the United States and the UK, who it seems is willing to continue this war rather admit failure or a rejection of the policy they have nurtured for so long. The lives of Ukrainians and the economic survival of Europe are just so much collateral damage in this struggle between the U.S. and Russia.

While many in the U.S. have refused to listen to the warnings from Moscow and have continued to minimize the dangers of an escalating conflict, the danger is not Nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia. One danger is that the U.S. will pre-emtivly attack Moscow, to overthrow the government and use the excuse that intelligence revealed Russia was about to launch a nuclear war. 

Then the other danger is that Russia should perceive that this conflict is going to continue until there is nuclear confrontation and they would best be served if it was undertaken at their initiative. If they come to believe this is inevitable, then the initiator would have an advantage.

Any such war would be devastating for the U.S. and Russia, not to mention the rest of the world, but that is the real risk. We can expect that strategists on both sides have calculated how they may be able to survive, some may even like their odds. After all they liked their odds at the onset of this conflict and still seem to find it all acceptable.

Is NATO and U.S. participating in Ukraine conflict?

 FURTHER ESCALATION WILL SOON RESULT IN NATO LOSES

UKRAINE CANNOT WIN WITHOUT DIRECT ASSISTANCE

While we hear that Ukraine is still advancing and that Russia may collapse at any time, it is a lot of misinformation. The Ukrainians have advanced slightly in near 4 months. Have lost over 40,000 troops and much of the equipment it had collectd for this offensive. The Russians have held their defenses and sometimes withdrawn to more favorable defensive positions. There has not been, nor does it appear that any breakthrough is now possible.

We see the escalation in the use of western drones and missiles in attempts to damage Crimea. These attacks are made possible by surveillance provide by the U. S. air resources in the Black Sea. This assistance is also being used to provide targeting information, this is direct participation in this conflict and it is only a matter of time that those U.S. assets will be neutralized by Russia. The question is how are we prepared to respond to this inevitable situation.

There are also indications that some of the British storm shadow missiles are being launched from NATO aircraft flying out of Romania. This is again direct participation, if true.

General Milly has admitted that there is a space in the pentagon that directly manages the war from Washington, He admits he is in daily contact with the Ukrainian military. It is a fact that there is coordination between the U.S. and Ukrainian military. This is direct participation.

There have been reports, although the names and ranks of the alleged soldiers have not been released, of a Leopard tank destroyed in Ukraine manned by German military. If this is true it will not go well in Germany.

We also see that Polish PM and has declared that Ukraine is now in a very dangerous situation, likening it to trying to save a drowning person, they may take the rescuers down to the same fate. Poland has also declared no more military aid to Ukraine. The European members are all bracing for a difficult winter with energy shortages and possible civil unrest. This war of attrition is taking a toll on the European supporters of this conflict.

In the U.S. Biden has asked for $28 billion more aid for Ukraine immediately and $100 billion for the next year. All while the U.S. debt passed $33 billion this week. It is a fact that the conflict is attritioning the U.S. that just piles on more debt.

Without western air support or direct military involvement, this conflict is soon going to collapse. Any further direct involvement will then open the possibility of even more dire consequences. There is no winning result on the horizon.

Unlikely cold warriors, Canada and India.

 JUSTIN TRUDEAU EARNS ANOTHER F FOR DIPLOMACY

IS TRUDEAU JUST ANOTHER LAPDOG FOR WASHINGTON?

So, the diplomatic fire fight escalates between Canada and India. It seems this started when India's PM Narendra Modi complained to Trudeau about Canada's support for Khalistan separatists. This happened at the G20 meeting in India. Trudeau then had problems with his accomodations and was also stranded in India for a few day due to plane trouble. It is the second time that Trudeau has been dressed down by a leader of a very big Asian country. The first was few years ago when the Chinese leader XI publicly embarrassed Trudeau for sharing with the media the contents of a private conversation. Whether Trudeau is just dumb or needed to share that he actually had a conversation with someone is not known.

The whole thing blew up when as soon a Trudeau got home he made a speech and accused India of assassinating a Khalistan separatist leader in British Columbia earlier in the year. Trudeau offered no evidence except he stated that intelligence had concluded that the Indian government was involved. Sounds so familiar, some now wonder if this prompting came from intelligence from Canada's southern neighbor.

In retaliation, India has demanded much of Canada's embassy staff leave the country and has now stated they will be limiting Visa's for Canadian citizens, many of whom are of Indian descent.

The whole thing is out of character for both Canada and India, except that it seems there is a lot of suspicion that Washington may be using Canada to increase division and unrest in India. Earlier in the year it is alleged that Washington has been attempting to sow division between Modi and Indians Muslim population, now with the Khalistan separatists. Much of this has to do with India wanting to be a neutral player in the present geopolitical conflict. There is pressure being exerted on India to support Ukraine and also to forgo trade with Russia. 

It seems now it has become the norm for any attempts at division or chaos to immediately be blamed on Washington. It may take a long time for the United States to redeem its reputation, if even possible, with the rest of the world.

Is Poland the first to say enough of Ukraine conflict?

 POLAND ENDS MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO UKRAINE

SENDS UKRAINE A BILL FOR $23 BILLION

It appears that Poland has decided it is time for it to end support for the Ukraine conflict. Several disputes have festered for some time, one is the large number of refuges in the country, which could grow larger from an escalated conflict. Another is the surplus grain coming from Ukraine that has the Polish farmers very unhappy. Then of course, there are upcoming elections which begin on October 15. The mood of the electorate is becoming less supportive of this conflict.

Then of course there is the pending lawsuit by Ukraine over the grain embargo by Poland. Ukraine has threatened to sue Poland it if it does not allow Ukraine grain into the country. This act of arrogance and hubris seems to be the last straw for Poland. Maybe Ukraine believes that Biden can intervene and force Poland to submit, but it will not go well with the Polish farmers and electorate.

Ukraine is very dependent on Poland for the ability to be used as a conduit for arms shipments into Ukraine. Its lack of diplomacy and never ending demands may spell the demise of Ukraine. Poland has been very supportive, but it has limits to what is possible and remain a unified government. Either way, without Poland, Ukraine will be in a more precarious position.

It is unlikely that Poland will reverse its position on military assistance, it is also unlikely that Ukraine will ever pay any bill to supportive countries. Many counties now understand that they cannot keep up this support indefinitely. 

Several countries at the UN meeting have advised Zelensky it is time for negotiations to end this conflict. While Zelensky is now in Washington with his usual list of demand, he has not been welcomed to address congress and it appears the handwriting is on the wall. Support is weakening in many places and many have come to realize this is all a futile endeavor.