More interesting virus facts.

MOST VIRUS PANDEMICS HAVE 60 DAY PEAKS

VIRUS DEATHS HAVE BEEN DECLINING SINCE WW2

Looking at records of influenza caused mortality for the last 100 years show us some interesting  things that seem to be common with all virus outbreaks. One must understand that all these references to influenza are never specific to one strain of virus. In fact many of these deaths are classified as  acute respiratory illness. Most cases are never tested for or identified and many are not caused by influenza at all. 

The rate of death declined after WW2 because with the advent of antibiotics. While antibiotics have little effect on viruses most deaths are caused by secondary bacterial infections. This is still the case today. Often these cases are classified as Pneumonia. 

One other interesting statistic is that these virus outbreaks seem to peak in around 60 days from the time they reach a certain threshold of infection in the population. The pandemic of 1968-1967 peaked in December and January and killed an estimated 100,000. the pandemic of 1957-1958 peaked in October and November. While there are cases in every month of the year it seems it is a low steady number until in the winter it reaches a steep increase for around 60 days then steadily drops, much of this has to do with many in the population obtaining immunity. Since WW2 the peak has never started before October and never ended after April. While cases again continue after those 60 days they are in a steep downward curve. 

	Influenza Deaths per 100 000 Population
Season	Type	Mean	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
1941–1942	Nonpandemic	9.9	3.4	2.8	2.9	5.2	9.7	12.1	18.9	19.5	21.5a	12.7	7.0	3.4
1942–1943	Nonpandemic	10.8	2.7	2.5	3.7	6.9	9.1	14.8	20.9a	19.7	20.8	15.0	8.8	4.4
1943–1944	Nonpandemic	22.2	3.1	3.0	3.2	6.5	9.0	78.8	92.0a	29.4	19.4	11.9	6.6	3.5
1944–1945	Nonpandemic	7.4	2.5	2.5	2.8	5.3	7.2	11.7	14.2a	14.0	12.2	7.1	5.8	3.5
1945–1946	Nonpandemic	11.2	2.2	2.1	3.0	4.3	8.4	36.9a	34.2	19.3	11.6	5.6	4.1	2.6
1946–1947	Nonpandemic	6.9	1.3	1.4	2.0	3.2	4.0	6.7	8.7	7.0	24.0a	18.2	4.8	1.8
1952–1953	Nonpandemic	5.9	0.9	0.7	0.8	1.6	2.2	3.3	19.1	27.1a	9.4	3.5	1.7	0.8
1957–1958	Pandemic	5.4	0.6	0.8	1.7	13.1	18.8a	6.2	5.6	6.9	6.2	2.8	1.2	0.6
1959–1960	Nonpandemic	4.1	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.8	1.1	1.8	10.1	21.9a	9.4	1.9	0.9	0.4
1967–1968	Nonpandemic	2.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.6	3.0	17.1a	4.2	1.2	0.4	0.2	0.2
1968–1969	Pandemic	4.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5	1.0	16.4	23.3a	4.8	2.6	0.9	0.4	0.2
1975–1976	Nonpandemic	3.6	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.8	12.8	22.1a	4.5	0.6	0.3

aDenotes peak monthly mortality during given season.

Influenza vaccines have been around since the 1980's. It is an annual ritual that many get this vaccine every year. New studies suggest that the accumulation of immunity  gathered over time may have more to do with the decline than the Flue vaccine. If you have had a similar strain of Flu in the past you will likely not be seriously affected in the future.

We have on average 30,000 deaths from respiratory illness every year in the United States. Often reaching 50,000. the 2017-18 season resulted in 48,000,000 infections, 959,000 hospitalizations and 80,000 deaths. 

Not to minimize the danger from this new virus, but we never have had a daily death toll on the news everyday for months. I personally believe I have had the influenza 4 or 5 times in my lifetime, but I had no memory of the 1967-68 pandemic or took little notice of the 2017-18  epidemic. 

We will eventually get all the facts and figures on this current pandemic, it seems it is very deadly on people who are old and have other problems, but we have been living with the existence of viruses that kill many every year. It is one of the risks of living.