Turkey masses troops, U.S. sends troops to Syria.

 TURKEY TO BE KEY TO CONTROL OF SYRIA

KURDS TO BE FORCED TO BE UNDER CONTROL OF NEW GOVERNMENT

In recent days the Turkish government and the leaders of the new Syrian government have agreed that that all weapons and military factions will be under the control of the Syrian government. This will include the U.S. backed Kurdish factions that control northeast Syria. This will likely create a conflict with the United States because it will need to decide if it will cooperate in the disarmament of the Kurdish forces. It will also bring into question the U.S. troops that also occupy parts of Syria.

Turkey is reportedly massing troops on its southern border possibly to cooperate with the new Syrian government to force the disarmament of the Kurdish forces. At the same time the U.S. has increased its forces to over 2000 in Syria.

The U.S. has also removed the bounty on the leader of the new Syrian government who was formerly labeled a terrorist.

Israel is reported to actually building settlements in its newly acquired buffer zone in southern Syria.

We can expect to see U.N. action on requests for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, since they were never there by invitation of the Syrian government. They are controlling the oil wealth of the Syrian government. We can also expect to see U.N. action on Israeli occupation of Syria.

While these resolutions may not be followed, it will be another diplomatic hit on the legality of U.S. and Israeli actions.

Turkey is in the power position in Syria, they can offer the new Syrian government support, economically, politically and militarily. This will also enhance Turkey's hopes of restoration of the former Ottoman empire. While many may believe this is far fetched, the reality is that the Turkish government has been setting the stage through it entertainment and other historical narratives to bring about this hope in the minds of Turkish citizens. 

So, while the end of 2024 saw the end of the Assad regime, 2025 will usher in the beginning of the new period in Syrian history. 

Congress runs the country like a hardcore addict.

 CONTINUAL RESOLUTION IS AT A $2 TRILLION YEARLY DEFICIT RATE

NO BUDGET AND CONTINUE TO ADD MORE SPENDING

We have all winessed the behaviour of hard-core drug addicts who run their family and their finances into the ground and end up on the street. Congress seems to have the same kind of addiction to spending and more spending. There is no budget that balances income with revenue, it is just a wide open spending bill and they all have their favorite little piece. The problem is they will not end up on the street, but many responsible citizens will.

These endless continuing resolutions just keep the debt growing and fixes the deficit for that period. It is time that congress takes responsibility and overhauls the budget, make it all public and they need to understand what they are voting on. Who actually writes these so called budgets, or I should say spending bills, as a budget is supposed to balance income and expenses? 

All foreign aid should be suspended until there is a surplus in the budget. All grants for research should be eliminated until they show a surplus. Then every dime should be scrutinized to see if it is vital for the nations good. It is way past time to get the nations financial house in order. 

The Defense department needs a thorough audit as does many other big spending departments. Does anyone doubt that there is $100s of billions of waste and fraud.

While we will hear all kinds of excuses why this is not the time, due to national security or some other pressing matter. The reality is the debt and deficits are the greatest threats to the future of this country. Only a country on a sound financial footing can have the resources to be a great country.

Trump can start reorganization without confirmed positions.

 THE PRESIDENT HAS THE POWER TO MAKE DECISIONS WHILE POSITIONS ARE VACANT

TRUMP LIKES TO KEEP BUSY

It is expected that many will attempt to slow walk Trump's appointments. While that may be an attempt to slow down his agenda, it by no means needs to be a major obstacle in beginning reform or implementing his agenda. 

The President has the authority to name an interim head of every department, and I suspect other key people in a department, they usually just require that they are a former head or have worked in that department. While the qualifications are vague, objections will need to go through a legal process which may take far longer than the confirmation process.

The other option is that Trump can personally start making decisions for certain departments, he does not need to be confirmed, that happened last November. He can also use a lot of assistants and interns to observe actions in these departments and report directly to the President. The President can then take actions on those who are not implementing his directives. The President can show up at these offices with his staff and begin making decisions anytime after Jan. 20. 

As for the state department and other foreign policy appointments, Trump can use the time zone differences to work through the night, personally talking and negotiating with foreign leaders. It is well know that Trump sleeps very little and we can expect he will be anxious to fit as much as possible into his 4 years.

He would be wise to use the bully pulpit to be as transparent as possible with his activities and progress, maybe a weekly address or a bi-weekly press conference. He can then blunt the spin and narrative that will likely be used to cast a negative light on his methods.

One more month and it will all begin.

Will terrorism and assassination rise in 2025?

 USING ASSASSINATION'S AS A NATIONAL POLICY

WE CAN EXPECT A SIMILAR RESPONSE

In the last months we have seen the assassination of both political and military leaders in Russia, Iran and Lebanon. We have also seen terrorist acts in Russia at a nightclub and the blowing up of electronic devices in Lebanon.  It seems the attitude is that such acts are the results and just rewards of bad policies of the victims. We have also saw the assassination of the daughter of Alexander Dugin, a philosopher in Russia. Both this assassination and the nightclub are connected to the government of Ukraine as is the recent scooter bomb that killed a Russian general in Moscow. Israel admitted to assassinations of political leaders in Tehran and Lebanon. They also as much as admitted they placed explosive devices that wounded not only members of Hezbollah, but many innocent bystanders, a terrorist act by anyone's definition.

While many herald these acts as a policy of war, I do not recall any such acts during WW2, were it became the policy of either side of the conflict. While there may have been some instances it was not the open policy of any government.

In Israel with the neutralization of Syria and other setbacks by the so called resistance, it is very likely that such acts will now become more common in Israel. What will be the response be if some prominent political leader is targeted? 

In Ukraine, Russia has not attacked the government buildings in Kiev nor has it targeted political leaders, does anyone doubt that they have the capacity for such acts?

We have also seen assassination attempts against leaders in Europe who opposed NATO expansion, like the president of Slovakia, and threats against Viktor Orban. Does anyone believe that the leaders of the UK or France are perfectly immune from similar attacks.

We would hope this trend is denounced and ended before it becomes the new plaque in international relations in 2025.

German government out, Canada next.

 NO CONFIDENCE EVERYWHERE

U.S. POLICY HAS CREATED CHAOS EVERYWHERE

The government changed in the UK and the present leader has a 28% approval rating. The parliament changed in France and Macron is likely to be replaced in the next election. The parliament changed in Georgia and a new president was sworn in in the last few days. The German government received a no confidence vote yesterday and Schotz will be out in February's new election. In Romania the opposition won the first round and the court ruled the election void because the winner was too active on social media. Yesterday the government in Canada took a large hit and a no confidence vote is expected, possibly in days.

While many will believe the narrative that the unrest is the fault of Russian interference or a populist movement, the reality is that the foreign policy of these United States has been a direct cause of much of the chaos in the western world.

The middle east wars that started in 1991 have produced the greatest migration since WW2. European countries have been flooded with refugees from the middle east and northern Africa. Most gravitate to the countries with the best social benefits which has created a drain on social resources, jobs and cultural upheaval. It has also created division in the vision for the future of these countries.

Then the insistence on NATO expansion into Ukraine and Georgia brought about military conflict in eastern Europe and all had to sign on to defeat Russia even at the cost of their economic freedom and prosperity. The combination of unlimited immigration and now economic collapse is pushing the political and social structure of these countries to their limit. The real chaos is just beginning.

With the wind down of the Ukraine conflict coming and a loss by NATO and all those who sacrificed so much, it will then be left with the shambles that have resulted. This coupled with the resistance of the ruling elite to give up power by extralegal methods, like cancelling and avoiding elections that they disagree with will only cause more unrest.

The real cure, is to listen to the will of the people, something that seems to be a rare policy in today's world. The ruling elite believe that they are smarter and know better, especially since many are insulted from the results of their poor decisions. If they believe that they can hold on by force and violence it will indeed be a bleak future.

 

North Korea get on the job training in Kursk.

 REPORTS THAT KOREANS ARE NOW ACTIVE IN KURSK

RECEIVING COMBAT EXPERIENCE

It is now verified by both Russia and North Korea that Korean troops are now actively participating in the Kursk region of Russia. It seems that they are operating independently of Russia forces.

North Korea claims that they have taken their first village claiming 300 Ukrainian lives and no prisoners. Ukraine claims that they have inflicted heavy casualties on the Koreans. Is doubtful that either claims are reliable, but it seems that their presence in the region is now verified.

It is unlikely that they are incorporated into Russian units, because of the language barriers but are most likely given tasks that allow them to operate with Korean leadership in an independent fashion. It would be suspected they would receive Russian logistics and air support.

North Koreans are often in Russia for training and this may be an opportunity for their elite units to gain combat experience. The west claims the Koreans are there because the  Russia are short of troops, but no objective analyst has come to that conclusion, the Russia army seems to be well manned and has several hundred thousand troops in reserve and are continually rotating troops in and out. 

Many of the Ukrainian troops have been in continuous combat for near 3 years. Most observers do not believe that Korean troops will be used on Ukraine territory, but only time will tell if that is true.

The dollar is the U.S. biggest weapon.

 THE ABILITY TO CREATE UNLIMITED MONEY IS COMING TO AN END

THE FATE OF ALL EMPIRES

While we are told that Russia, China and Iran are the biggest threats to the United States, it is the irresponsibility of the leadership that is likely to spell the doom of the U.S. as the master of the world. The ability to create massive amounts of buying power from thin air is coming to an end. Not by the machinations of our enemies or competitors, but by the natural consequences of the out of control policies of the Government.

The $36 Trillion in debt and the inflation that we experience is just the beginning of what is likely to happen in the near future. All those dollars that have been printed and flooded into the world economies are coming home, and possibly in a torrent. Many of the central banks are selling their U.S. debt and using the proceeds to buy gold. This puts more dollars into the system that will be working their way back home, particularly with escalation of trade war and sanctions on dozens of countries.

It is no secret that U.S. is financing most all military actions around the world, from Ukraine, the middle east, subsidizing NATO, buying friends all across the Pacific and quiet actions in Georgia, Romania, Moldova, Pakistan, India and in Africa and many more. One must wonder if all these dollars are in fact actually appropriated or just printed, bundled and shipped around the world. They eventually will be coming home and will lead to massive inflation. 

It is now generally understood that the debt is the highest in world history and is in fact unpayable. It is being recognized by more and more of those holding this debt. The interest is now approaching $1 Trillion a year and as it is rolled over at higher rates, it will become much more. Only drastic and unprecedented action can remedy this, actions that will likely make everyone in the U.S. a lot poorer.

It has been the fate of all empires that they succumb to over reach and over extending their ability to sustain their attempts to control their empire. We see that Spain and Great Britain still exist, but are only a shadow of their former glory. Everyone has ended in a similar fate. The United States, bordered with two oceans and natural resources could manage the coming storm, but it will need to face the reality than ruling the world always ends badly.

Ukraine conflict will be settled on the battlefield.

 NO FREEZE, NO CEASEFIRE, NO HONEST BROKERS

ONLY LASTING RESULT WILL DO

We hear talk of ceasefires for Christmas, frozen conflicts with peacekeepers, land for NATO and other arrangements, all in the hope to regroup and fight another day.  This war will only end when there is no longer any will to fight by one side or the other. A similar end that would compare to the end of WW2, unconditional surrender. 

Russia is on its way to bringing about that reality and the west will need to decide, and soon, if it is willing to send in NATO troops, or do a preemptive nuclear attack on Russia. You can bet those discussions are actually going on in Washington and NATO. Of course the citizens of Europe or the U.S. will have no say in the matter, it is their responsibility to just pay up and maybe die.

The opportunity to avoid this catastrophe was before it happened and then very early in the conflict, that time has passed. There are now 100's of thousands of dead and many billions of wealth destroyed, it is too late for some face saving solution for the west. The western players have lied and reneged on every possible deal and it has no credibility to stand by any agreement.

Money is still being sent to Ukraine today and more on the way, the only thing it will do is keep the government in Kiev from collapsing and providing a golden parachute when it all goes down, or maybe more tanks, F16's long range missiles or nuclear weapons will save the day.

The reality is that Russia is moving steadily west, every day, they are slowly and methodically overcoming all the reinforcements built in the last 10 years and are now at the gates of Pokrovsk which seems to be the center of Ukraines defense. It is assumed that battle will commence within a week and when it falls, Ukraine's defense will be severed and it will become near impossible to continue. While they may be able to fight on for months, it will only end one way, without intervention with troops or very escalated firepower. 

It may be one of Trump's very first major decisions after the inauguration. No matter the decision, he will be blamed for the ensuing result.

Syria being divvied up?

 WILL ISRAEL/TURKEY BECOME THE NEW CONFLICT?

NO REAL FRIENDS, JUST HOPING TO EXPAND

It seems that Turkey and Israel cooperated in the replacing of the Assad government. At present, the new government is disorganized and has not consolidated and actually exerted political power. It seems both Israel and Turkey now believe it is their time to take as much of Syria as they can. Turkey is moving across northern Syria and it is expected that they may attempt to drive the Kurds out of eastern Syria. Israel has taken more of the Golan heights and is now only 15 miles from Damascus. 

Israel may be in process of overreaching and bringing forces in the region out against them. An occupation of Israel of Damascus would be a red flag in the Muslim world. At present recent events have been in Israel's favor but it can change very quickly. While Turkey has cooperated, it is no friend to Israel and if Israel goes too far it will come into direct conflict with Turkey, which Erdogan could use to bolster his standing in the region. 

At present this may be a period of calm until a much greater storm as the new government consolidates and friendly assets move into the country. The political and diplomatic moves will be critical is determining the direction in this volatile region. If only raw power is the policy it will be eventually be returned in kind. While Israel is feeling invincible at the moment, it is only invincible with unlimited backup by the U.S., a backup that one day maybe limited due to economic and political developments in other parts of the world. 

True peace and security cannot be maintained with only raw power, the saying that "he who lives by the sword will die by the sword" can eventually apply to any nation.

Complications just beginning in Syria.

 WILL ISRAEL OVERREACH?

PRESSURE FOR U.S. TROOPS WILL GROW

Just days after the end of Assad regime Israel is advancing toward Damascus destroying any military assets that it can find. Some have already suggested that the rapid fall of Syria is suspicious and Israel is vulnerable to overextending itself into Syria and being the victim of a trap. The Israeli army is tired and overstretched, with problems of morale and a growing political division in the country. Prudence would be a better virtue than unrestrained adventure into Syria.

It is reported that Turkey supplied the training and logistics and the U.S. supplied the money, paying the jihadists around $2000. a month compared to $30 for Syrian army members. Will the money continue to flow as the jihadist army grows with all the Syrian prisons emptied, an influx of volunteers from the muslim world and the possibility of the Kurds opening the prisons with 50,000 ISIS prisoners? It is possible that the jihadists could grow to a 150,000 army in months. If the money ceases so will the control of these new Democrats.

The U.S. is already considering sanctions on Turkey if it continues to take control of northern Syria which it is in the process of doing. They are also concerned that Turkey will attempt to annihilate the U.S. supported Kurds in eastern Syria that now believe it is time for them to have a homeland in region.

Russia and Iran came in to support the Assad regime after 4 years of the regime change operation in an attempt to stabilise the region, with of course their own agendas, they no longer have a dog in this fight, and it appears they will let the local players have their day. 

It is no secret that Netanyahu still wants a U.S. backed war with Iran. It is the last on his decades old list of enemies that he considers must be eliminated for the expansion of and safety of Israel. This coupled with the deep state actors in Washington who would like to tie up Trump in foreign wars so that they would be safe from domestic reform. A trapped and desperate situation for the Israeli army would be just one of those situations.

It is way too soon to anticipate where all this will end, it would be a bad bet to anticipate any good outcome.

Syria; A tangled web of conflicting self interest.

 EUPHORIA ON ASSAD'S DEPARTURE MAY END IN DESPERATION

IS AL QAEDA BETTER THAN ASSAD?

In a short, dramatic turn of events, the Assad regime in Syria has been overthrown. The desire of the west that began in 2011 has finally been realized, we will have to wait and see if this is a positive development or just the beginning of more chaos and instability in the region. 

It seems that the former ISIS group that was preserved by the U.S. and its allies in the Idlib province is now the new rulers of Syria. At the end of the ISIS conflict Russia, Turkey and Syria wanted to finish off the remaining members of the group, most of the leadership, who had holed up in Idlib in northern Syria. The U.S. and its western allies protested vigorously that such a move would result in too many civilian casualties. After near a million and counting dead in the régime change wars, one must wonder how many is too many? 

This remnant and two other affiliates are what is now the ruling body in Syria. Take note that the ISIS members who attacked from the north, were the most effective and we can expect they will demand the majority of the power. It is interesting that the western media is labeling these two other groups as moderate jihadists, an oxymoron, or the opposition.

It appears that the Syrian military was ordered to stand down and that Assad was in communication with the leaders of these groups. It is also reported that the new leaders have communicated that they will not attack Russian assets.

It seems that Turkey, who had agreed with Russia and Iran to attempt to stabilize Syria, became a player in funneling U.S. equipment to these Islamist Jihadists and that Israel also approved of this attempt, they all came together to support this overthrow.  While the goal of overthrowing Assad has long been an objective of the U.S. and Israel, the U.S. financially supported the so called opposition in the Syrian war, many who were Jihadists and the remnants eventually morphed into ISIS. The same remnants that ended up in Idlib with the support of the U.S.. Many suspected that they were preserved to fight again in the future, the future that is now. Well, maybe the end justifies the means.

One must wonder why Turkey would assist in overthrowing Assad when they are both vocal opponents of Israel. We can expect the Erdogan sees an opportunity that may become evident very soon. He may view taking control of part of Syria as a step to his dream of a resurrection of the Ottoman Empire.

Israel believes that overthrowing Assad will cut off support from Iran that moves through Syria into Lebanon, but the concern voiced by some in the military in Israel is that Assad was a predictable and stabilizing force in Syria and the new rulers are an unknown. Do the new rulers love Israel more than Assad? Can they be expected to accept Israel's right to exist?

The U.S. may have believed that a move against Assad would force Russia to be distracted from Ukraine and send troops and supplies to Syria. It would also look like a political loss for Russia. The same applies to Iran. The reality is that both Russia and Iran seem to have not come to Assad's rescue and are in the process of pulling out of the country. It appears that they are just protecting their people and assets until they can safely exit.

The present masters in Washington may also hope that a new ISIS in Syria will be distraction to Trump that will hobble his attempts at domestic reform. I suspect they will be wrong and that Trump may finally pull U.S. troops from Syria and maybe even Iraq and let Turkey, Iran, Israel and regional powers deal with this mess.

Israel is moving into parts of Syria to establish a buffer from the new rulers. It may become another extension of Israel.

Will the new rulers now want access to the oil that is controlled and being sold by the U.S., that is in effect the property of Syria?

If these new rulers are sophisticated enough, they may be able to actually get funding from the U.S. congress, all they have to do is voice their support for elections and democracy and find a charismatic leader to lobby in the U.S.

There are also rumblings that the Kurds now see another opportunity to attempt to have their independence from Turkey. Will they gain support from Iran and others in the Arab community to punish Turkey for their double dealing?

While these realities are just the few that are going to be the byproduct of this event, we can expect no good result in the long run. It will most likely end like all regime change operations, death, destruction and chaos. Maybe some will rejoice because this is really the ultimate goal.

Biden's pardons, self protection.

LOTS MORE PARDONS COMING FROM BIDEN 

LEGACY IS DESTINED TO BE LABELED, "CORRUPT"

Biden's pardon of his son Hunter was always considered as a given,  He cannot stop there, as he has his brother and other family members who are aware of the blatant  corruption during his vice-presidency and presidency. One may speculate that as his leverage over Ukraine ends or maybe Ukraine's leverage over him, much more will be revealed in the future. Biden's power to control events will diminish very markedly after January 20. I suspect that the corruption is far deeper and far more extensive than anyone can guess.

While Biden may be a sly politician he is a sloppy criminal. While the Clinton's were sophisticated enough to form the "Clinton foundation" to funnel and launder money and kick-backs from those in foreign lands who received benefits from the U.S. government.  They also shared the largess with Democrat political organizations, relatives of TV personalities, like Chris Matthews daughter and other unemployable relatives of useful people. They also hired their daughter to run the operation, at least as the front.

Joe Biden just used his dysfunctional son, who may actually be the more moral member of the family, to just funnel the cash directly into the family coffers. That being the case, he may be much more vulnerable than if he would have shared.

Donald Trump can now use the precedent set by Biden, I expect many more pardons before Jan. 20., to pardon all his political allies persecuted by the Biden administration, Jan. 6 protesters, and whistle blowers that were prosecuted.  I expect Trump will begin his term with pardons rather than end it with pardons.

While Democrats are still willing to look the other way, the Biden administration was, up to now, the most corrupt administration in modern history. It is unlikely that it can be covered up much longer and then the rats may all jump the ship and blame old Joe for all the corruption that they willingly participated in.

Update on Russia's Oreshnik missile.

 NOT EQUIVALENT TO A NUCLEAR WEAPON

NEW MEDIUM RANGE MISSILE, EFFECTIVE BUT NOT DEVASTATING

Much was speculated about Russia's new medium range missile, now Professor Ted Postol of MIT has done the analysis and calculations to be more specific about the weapon. 

It is not equivalent to a nuclear weapon.

It is not more powerful than a 3000 or 6000 Glide bomb.

It is a new medium range missile that is very effective and seems to have performed well, but with its inert warheads it is destructive, but not dramatically so.

However, if armed with nuclear warheads, it would be a very devastating and destructive weapon.

His speculation is that the Russian scientists may have exaggerated it's potential to Putin, as he is not usually one to exaggerate.  I expect we will see more about this in the future.

No Maidan for Georgia.

 GEORGIAN PARLIAMENT TAKES CONTROL OF UNREST

CURRENT PRESIDENT TO EXIT DEC. 16, 2024

The attempt to overthrow the government of Georgia seems to be near an end. The Dream Party recently received the winning votes with 54 % of the vote. The current president Salome Zourabichvili term ends on Dec. 16th and will be replaced by a new president elected by Parliament on Dec. 14, 2024. The French born president and former part of the Macron government says she will not leave office as she claims that the election was fraudulent. She wants another election and has the support of her backers in the EU. It looks like Parliament is firm on their commitment to have her removed at the end of her term. The Parliament has suspended talks about joining the EU until 2028.

This may be the end of a period of unrest and uncertainty in Georgia. Last year the Parliament introduced a law that would require all political organizations who receive over 25 % foreign funds to be required to  disclose all these funds and sources. It is similar to laws in the U.S. that have existed for near 100 years. This law resulted in rioting in Georgia, threats of sanctions from the EU and U.S. and the parliament withdrew the law. The Parliament then did their homework and disclosed all the sources of foreign money flowing into the political system of Georgia.

The Parliament then reintroduced a revised law that passed overwhelmingly, the President vetoed the law, but the Parliament had the votes to override her veto. This likely had a great effect on the results of the election.

Much of the money came from the EU, the U.S. and other western governments and it verified what many believed was the process of bringing about revolution in Georgia, much like what was orchestrated in Ukraine in 2014. This strategy has been thoroughly exposed and will soon be of little effect in the future.

During the current election the younger generation was more inclined to join the EU, but the older generation feared becoming a replay of Ukraine. Many of these former Soviet countries have been convinced to replace the autocrats in the former Soviet Union with the autocrats in Brussels. It often becomes apparent that this move is not always in the best interest of the people, but is attractive to the elite ruling class. EU regulations often end much of the traditional industry and business  and force the younger generation to move to the EU's bigger cities, leaving the rural areas in decline populated by the elderly.

An example is the Baltic region where EU rules ended the traditional fishing industry and closed the existing electrical generation plants, ending jobs and forcing them to buy expensive electric power.

One would think that these new democracies would strive to chart their own future, rather be subservient to the ruling class in Brussels that forces economic, cultural and social regulations that are not in the best interest of their country.

Will tariffs bring back manufacturing to the U.S.?

 BRINGING BACK MANUFACTURING, IF POSSIBLE, WILL TAKE DECADES

TRADE WAR WILL CAUSE ECONOMIC DECLINE

We hear that raising tariffs on imports will be an incentive to bring back manufacturing jobs to the U.S.. While it may have some effect on some select industries, it will take a far more comprehensive and unified approach to be effective. I suspect that U.S. is not ready to make the necessary changes.

To bring industry back it will take drastic and wide-ranging reforms of regulations. Everything from environmental, taxing and zoning regulations on the federal, state and local level. 

Industries do not leave or locate in foreign countries just for large profits, but also to be profitable and competitive and insure their very existence.

If someone wants to start a new business in the U.S. they need a competitive product, then purchase properly zoned land and jump thousand of hoops to construct the plant, then purchase the equipment, hire qualified employees, provide social benefits and healthcare and presto their product becomes obsolete or uncompetitive and they risk losing all of their investment. A good example is the much touted Taiwan semiconductor plant in Arizona, the plant is 2 years behind schedule, the costs have ballooned and they cannot find employees willing to work the night shifts and they have publicly voiced regret at making the decision.

The other option is they can seek having it made somewhere else, no plant, no equipment, no employes, no benefits, no government in their pocket all along the process. Taxes only on their profit, no property taxes, no union problems and if their product becomes obsolete, they still have resources to improvise or adjust to a new product. It is a no brainer and a situation that will not be easily be corrected to entice anyone to build plant and manufacturing in the US.. 

Tariffs on Chinese goods will result in what is actually happening, a good example is that China has in the last few days restricted the export of Antimony, a product that is essential to a myriad number of products and China dominates the mining and processing of this metal. All Antimony mines and processing has been closed in the U.S. due to environmental regulations, as is the case with most rare earth minerals. All dominated by China for much of the world's supply. Not a conspiracy by China, but just filing a need that others did not want to fill.

The U.S. has not built a new oil refining facility in decades and in fact has been closing these facilities, making the U.S. dependent on refined products from other countries, many of which we have diplomatic disagreement.

The reality is that the US. cannot force others to do out bidding by threats and sanctions, it will take real diplomacy and a commitment to co-existence, as we are dependent on the rest of the world and if we should strive to become self reliant it will take decades, not just a new administration.

Geopolitical war expands to Syria and Georgia.

 HOPING TO FORCE RUSSIA TO SUE FOR PEACE?

DEATH AND DESTRUCTION FOREIGN POLICY HAS NO LIMITS

We see over the weekend a resumption of the Syrian civil war that has resulted in the death of over 500,000 Syrians and the desperation of much of the population into Europe and Turkey, all just some more collateral damage in the ongoing geopolitical war. 

The difference today rather than in 2011 when the civil war first erupted is that much of the world, except for American citizens, understand that Syrian rebels are just mercenaries bought and paid for with U.S. dollar debt. That and the freedom to keep the spoils of war, is much of the incentive to reignite this war.  

At the same time we see another attempt at a maiden revolution in Georgia. After the parliament decided to suspend talks on joining the EU until 2028, the cities erupted into violent protests and EU countries promised to sanction the leadership of the country. Elections were recently held and those that have misgivings about becoming part of the EU and NATO prevailed. It seems to be a replay of the Ukrainian revolution of 2014, much of it financed by the Uk and U.S.. Again, most of the world now understands the pattern and the policy and understands that it about global control rather than democracy.

Much of this is just another attempt to expand these conflicts and put pressure on Russia to accept NATO membership for Ukraine. While that may be the intended motive, it is more likely to end in a cataclysmic climax rather than quiet submission. 

We may soon expect to see this conflict expand into Moldova and Transnistria. After all chaos and death are all necessary to prevail in this geopolitical battle between good and evil, if only it was simple to determine which is good or which is evil.

NATO, US and Uk trash talkers debate nuclear war.

 RUSSIA PREPARING TO END CONFLICT?

WEST JUST CANNOT ACCEPT LOSING

This week we hear a U.S. Admiral explaining how the U.S. is preparing to win a nuclear war, he has not yet been fired. We hear UK talking in similar terms, then NATO repeating similar nonsense. At the same time Russia is moving steadily west and long range missiles are having no effect. Desperation is leading to trash talk and ideas like giving Ukraine Tactical Nuclear weapons. The reality is that this conflict is LOST, unless they are willing to conscript troops and enter into an allout NATO/Russia conflict. 

The problem is that the U.S. State department geniuses took a gamble that they could get Russia and Ukraine into conflict resulting in Russia being destroyed economically, politically and possible militarily. This whole gamble has failed and the result is a economically weakened Europe, a devastated Ukraine and the emergence of an alternative economic system, all which will result in lasting permanent consequences. 

What we continually hear is that the west cannot let Russia win, it must be defeated at all cost, no matter how long or at what cost. This attitude can only end in nuclear devastation, because Russia has concluded for years that NATO expansion is an existential threat to its existence. It also can not back down because it's situation is real. The west is more motivated by its Hubris that it can rule the world and all must submit, and any backing down will be humiliating and set a terrible precedent. This is where the world stands today.

At present Russia is massing equipment, supplies and men to possibly move in a new strategy, to end its policy of attrition, feeling that Ukraine is now weakened sufficiently that it can enter into a new phase of blitzkriegs to the Dnieper river. It appears NATO and Ukraine may understand this, hence the long range missiles, threat of NATO troops and trash talk, hoping Russia will sue for peace. It seems Ukraine may be ready to end this now, but the west feels it must prevail.

While peace was a real possibility before the war and early in the war. It would have required a militarily neutral Ukraine, an idea that was abhorrent to the state department brain trust, it is no longer an option. Russia has suffered severe losses of men and treasure, it will not end this without some sort of real victory. The reality is, Russia is in the dominant position, Ukraine is dying, the west is suffering economically and politically, it will not sue for peace until it achieves its objectives. Everyone know what they are, they have been voiced before the conflict and have not changed.

Russia will not be defeated short of Nuclear war. Does anyone really believe that that is an acceptable option.

Ukraine ready for end, NATO not so much.

 UKRAINE CANNOT  CONTINUE MUCH LONGER, EVEN WITH MORE MISSILES

NATO MEMBERS AGAIN TALK OF NATO TROOPS

Desperation is now becoming clear in much of NATO, no matter what weapons are given to Ukraine they will not be able to prevail against Russia. If only NATO would have allowed them to make a deal in the early stages of this conflict.

It seems the French and Uk are still talking sending troops to Ukraine, I assume it will remain TALK, somehow they still believe that at some magic moment Russia will decide to capitulate and sue for peace. 

This conflict is only going to end with total capitulation by Ukraine and it is unlikely the west can make anything else happen. There are reports of mass desertions and collapsing morale in the Ukraine army, can anyone expect anything else? Only the NATO and US. handlers want the fighting to continue, maybe guys like Bolton and  Graham should go to Ukraine and lead these poor soldiers to victory.

More information on Russia's new weapon. The payload on this weapon is near 3600 pounds. So 36 inert warheads would weigh close to 100 lbs a piece. It is estimated that they are traveling at 14,666 feet per second. A modern rifle usually has around a 1/4 oz projectile traveling at 2600 fps. It is hard to imagine the impact of such a projectile, something like a small meteor impact. While many seem to want to minimize its effectiveness because it is not nuclear, it is expected that on a specific target it will be as effective as a nuclear weapon without the fallout and political blowback. While we can expect others will have such a weapon in time, they do not have it now, much like the situation for the United States in 1945.

Will it take several of these demonstrations on western assets to bring about a  focus on reality or do our leaders still believe that they can turn a narrative into reality. 

Russia's new missile, response to West's long range missiles.

 RUSSIA'S FIRST MEDIUM RANGE MISSILE

UNIQUE AND UNSTOPPABLE

It has been 5 years since the U.S. unilaterally pulled out of the INF treaty. The intermediate range nuclear treaty was first signed in 1987 and banned short and intermediate range missiles. Russia voiced concern and stated that they were prepared to extend the treaty. The U.S. claimed that the Russian's had not lived up to the terms of the treaty. Some also claimed that they wanted the treaty to be renegotiated and China be included in the treaty.  The Russian's stated that would abide by the treaty even if the the U.S. withdrew. It appears that Russia has now introduced its first medium range missile since the end of the treaty.

The U.S. has since placed missiles in Poland, that while advertised as defensive, can be fitted with nuclear warheads. Russia has protested this move.

So, last week a hypersonic ballistic missile was fired from around 800 miles inside Russia that hit an area in Dnipro in Ukraine. It seems this missile is creating a stir in Europe as it seems it has the range to hit any target in the EU and UK. This missile is reported to be able to fly at 10,000 miles an hour and cannot be currently defended against. The missile seems to carry six MIRV multiple targetable reentry warheads that each contain six smaller warheads, it is a total of 36 warheads. 

This missile can be fitted with both conventional and nuclear warheads. This particular missile was not fitted with any explosive warhead. It depended on the kinetic energy released when a heavy hard object collided with its target at 10,000 miles an hour. While there are videos of these objects falling, it appears to be like space age flash. There are no videos or pictures as yet of the damage to a military manufacturing complex in Dnipro. Many speculate that this would be very effective in targeting hardened deep underground facilities. 

While the U.S. is attempting to minimize this event, saying that it is experimental and in limited numbers, the UK has placed all its facilities on high alert and the Ukrainian parliament has suspended meetings in the capital. 

It is also reported that the Russian nuclear forces have been placed on high alert.

We will see if this type of weapon is going to be utilized after every use of long range U.S. and UK missles inside Russia. 

It is without a doubt the most dangerous time since the Cuba missile crisis, without any serous diplomats engaged from the west. 

Biden policies have set America back for years.

 DESPERATE ACTS IN CLOSING DAYS, JUST MAKING EVERYTHING WORSE

HISTORY WILL LABEL BIDEN THE WORST PRESIDENT IN HISTORY, SO FAR

We watch in amazement as the lamest of lame duck presidents continues to attempt to enforce his misguided foreign policy. It has been a disaster, everywhere, from Ukraine, to China, Iran and the even Israel. There is no place that these policies have not been a complete failure, and it continues.

In reality, most of the world is standing by like watching a car crash in bewilderment at the devastation. It is unlikely that anyone could cause so much havoc by just foolishness or errors in judgment. We have to conclude that the implementers of these policies, no one really believes Biden is making these decisions, is willing to go out with a climax of devastation and further chaos.

The one redeeming fact is that much of the world has now seen and understands the repetitive policies of the United States of sowing division, regime change and general destruction. It has been demonstrated first around the world and now even in the homeland. Who are these people, and what is their end game or is it just death and destruction. 

Thankfully we do see some signs of maturity and patience of our adversaries and competitors who seem to understand this reality better than many of the American people. It seems the majority of the American people are finally getting it and that at least offers some hope.

The reality is that the Ukraine war is lost, unless we are willing to go to WW3. The Israeli situation is also on the verge of total war and is more serious than any time in the modern history of Israel. The U.S. debt is ballooning to the point that it will soon bring down much of the economy. The dollar as the reserve currency is doomed by the irresponsible spending by many presidents and the congress, exploding in the final years of this president.

It does appear that the world is on the brink of many simultaneous climaxes, brought on by irresponsibility, hubris and delusional policies.  It may actually take a miracle to restore to a normal global situation.

Poor Ukrainians continue to be victims of U.S. policy.

 NEVER ANY CONCERN IN WASHINGTON FOR THE DAMAGE TO UKRAINE

ITS ALL ABOUT GEOPOLITICS, NOT OTHERS LIVES

Henry Kissinger 's famous quote that "It may be dangerous to be America's enemy,  but to be America's friend is fatal."  This quote has never been more relevant than when it is applied to Ukraine. Ukraine's decision, not made by its citizens, but by its leaders, to consent to the machinations of the United States is proving to be one of the worst decisions of the 21st and maybe the 20th century. 

George Bush 2 gave a speech in 2008 declaring that Ukraine and Georgia would be invited to become part of NATO. Russia made it clear that is was vehemently opposed and cited UN policy that one nations security should not be diminished by another's alliances. This set in motion the fight over Ukraine.

The election of Viktor Yanukovych in 2010 in a fair and free election, was overturned in 2014. Yanukovych was labeled a Russian puppet because he tried to balance the hope of developing trade with the EU and remaining non aligned militarily. The country was divided with near 1/3 of the eastern part wanting to continue trade and relations with Russia and the western part desiring to be part of the EU. The EU conditions were that if part of the EU, they would need to suspend trade with Russia and most of the east depended on trade with Russia.

At the same time after 2008 Joe Biden was Vice President of the United States and Hillary Clinton Secretary of State. It is no secret that Biden was involved in much of the corruption that was endemic in Ukraine. After the coup in 2014 the eastern oblasts declared independence and a referendum in Crimea elected to be part of Russia. This coup was financed with $5 billion in U.S. funds directed by Victoria Nuland an appointee of Hillary Clinton. 

The Ukraine war actually began in 2014 as the government under Petro Poroshenko attempted to suppress the independence in the east. Over 14,000 civilians died in the shelling during the border dispute. Poroshenko was supported by the United States and the EU.

In 2019 the popular TV personality, Volodymyr Zelensky ran in opposition on the platform of concluding peace with Russia. He was not supported by the west, at least no openly. He won with a large majority, but soon gave a speech were he articulated that he was going to retake Crimea and subdue the eastern oblasts by any means possible including military force. He then proceeded to move troops to the disputed area, Russia answered by moving troops to the border.

The rest is now history up until now, when we see that Ukraine has suffered devastation and as many as 1 million dead and wounded. We have never heard one word about the dead Ukrainians from U.S. politicians, only the hope by some like John Bolton and Lindsey Graham that it was good that Russians were dying. We have never seen Biden tour the expanding cemeteries in Ukraine. This week Jake Sullivan demanded that Ukraine forcibly draft more soldiers. It is all about their geopolitical ambitions and it is clear the Ukrainians are just so much fodder to attain their goals, which are actually pretty vague to say the least.

Now, with Ukraine on the verge of collapse losing 5 kilometers everyday as Russia accelerates their march west, they decide to escalate with long range missiles and personnel landmines. We can now expect that Russia will likely take out the government of Ukraine, completely take out the electrical grid and cause more intense suffering for the Ukrainian people. The end of the conflict is sealed some time ago, the only difference is going to be how many more young Ukrainians will die. 

Is it time congress puts a leash on Biden?

 CONGRESS NEEDS TO REASSERT THEIR CONSTITUTIONAL ROLE

BIDEN'S POLITICAL MACHINATIONS ARE PUTTING THE WORLD AT RISK

If it was inappropriate to allow Ukraine to use U.S. long range missiles for 2 1/2 years, why is it appropriate now? Can the Biden administration be trusted to make decisions in the best interest of the country? If Biden was incompetent to run for reelection is he now competent to set foreign policy, especially when war is the outcome? These are questions that congress should be publicly debating right now. 

We see that Biden is not willing to just go peacefully into the sunset, he is attempting to set the stage for foreign policy for the next 4 years. He does not have the constitutional right to make these decisions and it is time to reintroduce the War powers act of 1973. Someone should be sounding the alarm, before it is too late. 

The power to make unlimited war has been causing serious problems for at least the last 20 years. Congress is delinquent in their responsibility, that is clearly set out in the constitution. I suspect many would rather someone else make those decisions, that way they can point the finger at someone else. 

It is time leaders in congress, especially Democrat leaders, if there are any that are willing to put the fate of the country before party politics, to confront Biden now and let him know his legacy will be the 25th amendment or some other action, if he continue to take this country on a path to WW3.

Secondly, it is time to remove the blanket policy of giving the power to make war over to the president. It is the responsibility of congress and steps should be made now to reinstate that responsibility. 

Biden, irrelevant at G20 meeting.

 RED CARPET FOR CHINA LEADER

BIDEN NOT PRESENT FOR GROUP PICTURE

The status of the United States under Joe Biden was on full display in Brazil for the annual G20 meeting. It is reported he may have well stayed home as the meeting was centered on the arrival and pageantry reserved for Xi Jinping of China, who received the red carpet treatment and a lavish dinner. Brazil and China are both founding members of the BRICS group which is becoming the alternative economic system. 

China has now become the number 1 trading partner in all of South America selling everything from electronics and Electric cars and buying beef, grain and other commodities. It is a symptom of the decline of the U.S. that is occuring around the world.  Amazingly most of our leaders are focused elsewhere as was evident when Biden choose this setting to Ok long range missile attacks on Russia by Ukraine. Was this a feeble attempt by Biden to gain some relevance?

The U.S. is in trouble, with a $36 trillion debt, a withering manufacturing base, deficits that make up over 25% of the budget, and being on the verge of war in several places. At home, it is more of the same politics of division and refusal to reevaluate objectively the policies that have placed the United States in this position. It seems many just want the party to go on until it is all over, and that may be very soon.  

The U.S. can no longer keep the dollar as the reserve currency or demand submission from others by force, neither militarily or by economic warfare. The reality is much of the world is moving on, viewing the U.S. as a  sloppy drunk at a formal party, hoping that they just go home. 

The U.S. needs to do just that, go home and get your house in order, before you want to tell the rest of the world how to live.

Is Biden trying to pull the trigger on WW3 ?

IS THIS A DOMESTIC POLITICAL MOVE?

OBVIOUSLY NOT IN THE BEST INTEREST OF UKRAINE OR THE U.S.

If you remember in the weeks before the November election, Zelensky was pushing for the use of U.S. long range missiles to strike inside Russia, most likely Moscow and St. Petersburg. Russia was quick to respond by revealing their policy that any attacks facilitated by western powers will be considered a joint attack on Russia. These missiles will be operated by U.S. soldiers and facilitated by U.S. tracking and targeting ability. Russia stated that this would indicate to them that it would be time to use nuclear weapons in response to these attacks. At the time Biden refused to give that permission.

Yesterday, 12 days after the election, Biden gave Ukraine the go ahead to use U.S. missiles and U.S. personnel to strike deep into Russia, 60 days before Trump is to take office.

While Trump is forbidden to communicate directly with Moscow, I assume someone is calling Putin to use restraint and not respond to such attacks with nuclear weapons. Many assume that such a nuclear attack would be small tactical weapons used on Ukraine, Russia does not need to use nuclear weapons to defeat Ukraine. That is happening at a quickening rate without their use.

It seems no one believes that Russia would dare to just skip all the bullshit and hit Washington and London. Is it a gamble worth taking as Ukraine is not going to win this conflict no matter what the west does?

I suspect that Moscow will not take the bait, and will at least see what the the next administration's position will be.

While this conflict has been depicted as all out war, it has not been the case. Russia has followed a policy of increasing attrition and is in the final stages of rendering the Ukrainian military impotent. It has avoided destroying the government buildings in Kiev, maybe because of historical reasons, it has not destroyed all the railroad and vehicle bridges across the Dnieper river. it has not attempted to take out the leadership Ukraine. One may now expect that Zelensky and his administration better be very deep underground and not come out until after January.

We also need to be concerned that we may now see a joint attack on Iran by Israel and the U.S. 

Is this a real serious foreign policy or an attempt to lay WW3 in the lap of the next president, in an effort to hoble his ability to conduct domestic reform of the government.

Maybe Trump should put out the word, that if they start WW3 the U.S. will let them all fend for themselves. Without engaging in Ukraine and the middle east Trump would have plenty of time to deal with problems at home.

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Trump disrupts Pentagon, DOJ and Intel.

 LET THE GAMES BEGIN

ALL NEED MASSIVE REFORM

The Pentagon now finds that Pete Hegseth, a captain in the Minnesota National guard, is their new boss. It is an interesting nomination for the Secretary of Defense and much will depend on the staff that can be put together to function in this new role. Some believe the pentagon is top heavy with high ranking officers. It is noted that in WW2 with over 11 million members of the armed forces, fighting on several continents, had 7 Four star officers. Today with only 2 million the U.S. has 44 four star officers, most go on to work in the defense industry after retirement.

We will see how this nomination goes over, we can expect Trump has a backup if this one doesn't make it. The defense department does need a thorough audit and examination as to where does all the money go.

Trump's nomination of Matt Gaetz for attorney general will without doubt make a lot of sparks fly. Gaetz is very bright and articulate, but can be a little abrasive at times. Maybe that is just what is needed for a department that seems to believe it needs to pick winners and losers and has seemed to be motivated by partisan politics.  The idea may be that many will resign rather than work for Gaetz. It will be very interesting.

Tulsi Gabbard's nomination, as director of National Intelligence, puts her in charge of all those infamous three letter agencies.  A firm believer in constitutional rights and transparency, it will be a hard nut to crack with these guys, who believe they know what's best for the world. After their insistence on weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and their 51 former brass that signed a letter swearing that all the dirt on Hunter Biden was Russian disinformation was the ultimate piece of real disinformation.  Tulsi is contemplative and has good judgment, does not seem prone to hasty actions, maybe a good place for her. Lets see how these guys behave. 

The top position in these jobs needs to set the tone and objectives, they do not need to know every detail of its workings, but they need to find the right people who understand these agencies and implement the objectives of the director and the president.

So far these may be the most controversial, but of course, there is more to come.

Trump's can dos and probably nots.

 BORDER SECURITY SHOULD BE NUMBER 1 PRIORITY

ENERGY PRODUCTION WILL LOWER PRICES

As the Trump administration takes shape at a quick pace we can expect that this will allow Trump to get going very quickly. While some of his picks are questionable, and if they are willing to administer administration policies, we will have to wait and see. I suspect that Trump will have little patience with foot dragging.

While everyone has great expectations, what are the realistic expectations of this administration.

It does seem that Trump has a mandate to secure the border, so it should be his number 1 priority as it will be difficult for congress to oppose this agenda. This is a real possibility for success.

Increased energy production and lowering of energy prices will begin to lower the prices of most everything we buy, he should be able to implement policies to do just that.

As for tax reform that will be another issue, he will be able to get some of his ideas through, like tax on tips, which is basically unenforceable and very unequally enforced depending on where people work.  No tax on social security is a possibility.

Reform of the Justice department, Pentagon and Intelligence agencies will be another issue, hopefully some progress can be made, but there will be very hard resistance from the entrenched bureaucracy.

In foreign affairs, while many still believe in prolonging the Ukraine conflict, it is going to resolve itself in due time, as Russia is advancing everywhere and no amount of aid is going to change this outcome. The natural course of the conflict will provide the end of this, the question is can they all work out a lasting peace.

The middle east is the toughest problem, it is now near total war, a war that Israel can't win without U.S. intervention that will bring in many other players. It is the worst situation at the moment. It is on the verge of becoming WW3. An end to the Ukraine conflict would free up Russia and China to be positive players in a solution, they now have strong influence on Iran. This coupled with strong restraint from the U.S. on Israel could be, yes could be, a possible end to this situation. I suspect it will require a unified partnership from allies on both sides to bring that about. So far we have seen little diplomacy from the west, just threats and sanctions. I am not sure that I see any diplomats on the horizon yet, we can only hope. None of the major countries want war, it seems the leadership of Israel believes if they can destroy Iran they will have no enemies in the future, a very dangerous and unrealistic idea.

Much of the Trump presidency will be out of his control due to the complicated foreign situation, something that is out of his control. Hopefully he will focus on reform and making the country united and strong and put it in a better position for the future.

Trump's picks will be crucial for success.

 JOB OF CABINET MEMBERS IS TO FACILITATE POLICIES OF PRESIDENT

NOT PROTECT THE BUREAUCRACY

The daily media spin and attempts to create division in the Trump team is underway. Rumors and speculation of who will be nominated for cabinet positions is all over the place. Some to push certain people, some to create anxiety in Trump supporters.

The report that Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley are not being considered is some relief. Reports of Marco Rubio for Secretary of state is concerning, I suspect he will not have the president's agenda as his foremost concern.

Trump needs every House and Senate vote he can get, so Republican Representatives and Senators from states with Democratic governors should all be out of the question. Nominees from states with Republican governors need to have their replacements vetted before being nominated.

I do expect that Trump will be in a position to hit the ground running on Jan. 20, 2025, unlike in 2017 where he was vulnerable to the machinations of the entrenched bureaucracy that is all about self preservation and manipulation. We can expect they are planning now on how to hinder Trump's agenda rather than implement it. His best strategy is to begin by setting an example by firing the head of the FBI and CIA and hopefully replacing them with less biased heads of these important positions.

Another very important pick will be Attorney General, we can expect he will be getting advice from all over for the place, so far, no one has been mentioned.

The Secretary of State is a very powerful position, it must be filled with a thoroughly loyal and competent person, that can be trusted and be truthful and transparent to the president, a rare person for Trump to find in the bureaucracy. A person also must have the trust and competence to be trusted by allies and competitors, a very hard position to fill. I see no Kissinger or Jim Baker at present, hopefully one exists. I suspect it needs to be someone who is not in the government now, maybe John Mearsheimer, Jeffrey Sacks or someone who can be a realist, not an ideologue or a delusional advocate for the impossible.

Sometimes the cabinet position is more of an agenda setter and the real work is done by the appointments just under the head.

I suspect some of these mentioned are being floated to get the reaction, both from the opposition and Trump supporters, none of these positions are final until they are sent to Senate in January, don't be surprised if there are changes. 

The next 60 days will be crucial for Trump's success or failure, we can bet there are those who seek to sow the seeds of failure on both side of the isle. Washington is indeed a minefield that requires very careful navigation.

Attempts to manipulate Trump underway.

 TRYING TO AGAIN MAKE INCREASED MILITARY SPENDING THE PRIORITY

IS IRAN REALLY ATTEMPTING TO ASSASSINATE TRUMP?

Last time Trump was elected President he relied on the word of former military generals, that his number 1 priority should be a dramatic increase in military spending. He feel for it, and squandered his hope of building a wall and quickly controlling the border. I suspect he will not fall for this again.

I suspect these same manipulators believe that putting forth the intelligence story that Iran is attempting to assassinate him will convince him to go to war with Iran. I again suspect he is likely to not believe much that they will be telling him. A very sad state of affairs.

While we all want a strong military, before 1 more cent is increased in the pentagon budget they need to submit to a independent audit of the Military budget. Hopefully if the situation is that dire, they will cooperate and make such an audit to be completed in record time. It is very suspicious that with a budget of over $880 billion, compared to maybe $70 billion by the Russians and $220 billion by the Chinese, we are found not be able to produce artillery shells. An audit is more warrented than ever before as I understand that such an audit has never happened, amazing.

I am no expert on military equipment other than small arms, It is often reported that the pentagon loves to spend enormous sums on over engineered and very expensive equipment that often flounders when exposed to the rigors of war. They are very impressive when displayed in controlled environments, with very well trained soldiers, but often in war this equipment needs to be able to function with a minimum of training. We also here of sophisticated maintenance crews to keep this equipment running often every day care.

Can our planes fly if they lose their computers, can our crews hit targets without GPS input? These things need to be considered, by people who actually must use and maintain this equipement, not senators and salesmen.

Then there is the issue of how much of this equipment is dependent on parts produced by third parties, especially China. I suspect much more than anyone understands.

In WW2 we were the "Arsenal of Democracy", because of our vast manufacturing capacity, I suspect this is no longer the case. Fancy and expensive weapons that cannot be quickly replaced puts this country in a dangerous position. Now is the time and the opportunity to examine the real state of our defenses.

What are the realistic options for Ukraine?

 TIME IS NOT YET RIPE FOR PEACE

MAY BE RIPE BY TRUMP'S INAUGURATION

We see reports that Donald Trump has opened a dialogue with Ukraine's Zelensky. So far no one in the Biden administration has claimed foul, but I suppose the dialogue let Zelensky know where the incoming president stands on the future of this conflict. It gives him and his staff a few months to consider their options.

So, what are the realistic options for the end of this conflict? 

If the west insists on defeat of Russia and Ukraine as a member of NATO, that is one option. If that is the option, then the U.S. should expect raising combat forces of at least 400,000 and at least 200,000 from each of the major countries in Europe, Germany, France, Uk, Poland and other NATO members like Canada and Spain.  That will require a move to conscription in all those countries as they do not have enough forces to conduct a serious offensive to push Russia out of Ukraine. It will require massive logistics and once initiated will open all those logistic centers in Europe to attack.

Much of Europe is already suffering energy shortages and a loss of manufacturing capacity due to this war, Germany's government is on the ropes, France not much better and approval of the new UK leader, abysmal. Instituting a draft will cause unparalleled chaos in Europe and I expect in the U.S.. I expect NATO is not going to enter this war.

Another option is just keep supplying weapons and materials to Ukraine, more of the same, Ukraine is getting smaller every day as Russia is incrementally moving west and will not pause until they reach the Dnieper river, which is 1/3 of Ukraine. If some sort of accord is not reached they will move to take Odessa, which would be a death blow to any future for Ukraine. Ukraine cannot defeat Russia, it is clear.

The reality is that Russia will not return the 4 oblasts it has occupied, this war was never about real-estate, no matter  the intelligence community and state department narrative. Russia's motive is security and civil rights for Russians in eastern Ukraine. Russia will go to nuclear war before it consents to Ukraine being a member of NATO with foreign bases and missiles on its border. Russia wants Ukraine to be a militarily neutral country in the fashion of Switzerland. 

The west believes that is not Russia's option, but if Russia put missiles in Mexico or Canada would it be acceptable to the U.S.? Or missiles in Ireland?

Ultimately, peace will only be accomplished when Ukraine is neutral and not a member of NATO.  When the EU agrees to have commerce with Ukraine while Ukraine has commerce with Russia, not demand that all commerce with Russia is discontinued as part of their plan.

At present, none of those conditions are in sight, but at the pace that Russia is moving west and the dire position of the Ukraine military, possibly early in 2025 the time will be ripe for all involved to accept the reality of the situation.

The dems and the neocons will then blame Trump for capitulating to Russia and being the Neville Chamberlain of the time. Maybe Trump needs to go on national television and explain the options available in this conflict.

 

The count goes on, and on, and on.

 WESTERN STATES NOTORIOUS ELECTIONS

NOT SURPRISING, CALIFORNIA WORST IN COUNTRY 

While it seems things have gotten better in most of the country,  the west coast is still looking for more votes after 3 days. California is reporting 59% of the votes counted. Arizona, not a very big state 76%,  Oregon 81% and Washington 86%,

California is notorious for dragging the counting on for weeks, all in an attempt to gain U.S. House seats. They condone all kinds of outlandish practices, like ballot harvesting and counting mail in ballots for weeks. While the states need to deal with running these elections, it may be time for some standards for federal elections. Something like requiring residency and citizenship to register. And penalties imposed if the counting is not done in a timely way, maybe like 4 or 5 days. 

A good penalty would be that for every day that counting is not concluded they lose 1 house seat from the majority party. I bet they can do it. There is nothing to stop federal rules for federal elections. 

These practices have an effect on everyone in the nation and these states need to be made accountable for their dishonest or irresponsible actions.

The maturing of the American electorate?

 IS THIS THE END OF OUTRAGEOUS POLITICAL WAR?

POLICY FINALLY WINS OUT OVER EMOTIONS

As a long time observer of politics, near 50 years, I can say much of this outrageous political war started with the Watergate scandal. While there was wrongdoing, it was way overblown and ended with the resignation of Richard Nixon, the second most hated president in modern history. Much of the hate was fostered by a complicit media, who never gave Nixon the credit as a qualified president.

The Republicans got their revenge with the impeachment of Bill Clinton, but were unable to defeat him in his re-election bid. I hope after the last 8 years of outrageous political war and over the top nonsense these tactics will be in the past. Only time will tell, we may find out within days whether these tactics will end or will we see the doubling down of failed policies.

I suspect that many Americans believe that this country is in real trouble and it is far more serious than outrageous claims of the end of democracy and outrageous lies about Trump's positions on abortion, in vitro and social security. The reality is that whether people like or dislike Trump, they do know what policies he advocates, he has been consistent for 8 years. He has also demonstrated that he has a solutions based mentality and a tenacious ability to keep on trying.

While America has many problems facing it around the world, many caused by the flawed policies of past administrations, America needs to be rebuilt at home and reunified in that effort, all Americans must realize the dangerous divisions that exist and reject those who continue to sow division for political power. We need to focus on the best interest of this country before all else. Yes, American first, is what it needed right now. 

A strong and unified America can then address the problems in the rest of the world. Many of the problems have been caused or exacerbated by U.S. policy for the last 35 years. A realization that the U.S. no longer has the wealth or ability to rule the world. We no longer are the shining example to the world, the real way that America had influence around the world, by our example, not be sanctions, threats and regime change policies. A serious discussion needs to take place on the objectives of the country and our position in the world, before the world goes up in smoke.

Anyway, that is my observation, I am sure many are ready to continue in the destructive political wars at home and abroad, I can only hope that much of the country is ready to move on to a better place.

No Virginia, The D's and the media cannot elect a ham sandwich.

 TRUMP HAS LONG COATTAILS

AS CLOSE TO A MANDATE AS POSSIBLE

It looks Pennsylvania has gone big to the Republicans, winning the Senate, Attorney general, Treasurer and Auditor. Locally, it looks like Ryan Mckenzie has defeated Susan Wild in the house. The Republicans are now expected to have clear majorities in the House, Senate and the Presidency.  I expect that Donald Trump will now have a much better list of candidates for cabinet positions. In his first term he had no idea who most of the people were who he selected, many deep state operatives who believed their mission was to undermine and move him in their direction. 

No one can deny that Trump is the hardest working political candidate, no matter his age. We now have at least hope, were there was no hope. No one can remedy all the ills facing America in four years, but hopefully we can start the process of restoring this country as a place of hope and opportunity for its citizens and cool off the violence around the world.

The one dismal statistic is that Kamala Harris was able to be selected by 65 Million Americans. She was without a doubt the most unqualified candidate for president in the history of the country. The audacity of the Democrat leadership and the complicit media in believing that they could continue in the program that brought us Joe Biden, who campaigned from his basement, and even poor John Fetterman. Hopefully those days are behind us. The media's credibility has been further eroded by their blatant bias.

We hope that Trump's priority is to heal America both at hope and abroad. Move to restore America's manufacturing ability, control the borders,  encourage small business and limit government overreach. Move to restore faith in the election system, the bedrock of a democratic system. Awaken the citizens to the dangers of the woke ideology, that is an ideology of death, chaos and disaster. 

The first foreign policy objective should be to end the Ukraine war and end the policy of you are for us or you are our enemy. The end of the Ukraine war will soften many of the dangers that are brewing around the world. America needs to be that light upon the hill, not a dark perpetuator of division and violence.

A very tall order, we can only hope to make a beginning and hope the dark powers will not embark on another mission of destruction of this president or seek to lay WW3 in his lap on Jan. 20, 2025.

The evolution of political advertising.

 TEXT MESSAGES AND STREAMING ADS 

A LOT OF WASTED MONEY

I assume we have all been overwhelmed by the number of text messages during this political campaign. I finally started to reply stop to all of them, I just could not take it anymore. While momentarily they would stop, they would soon resume. I can only assume that campaign consultants are getting paid for the number of text messages they send out. While communication is always good, it has become very annoying. 

I no longer get any cable news, but do watch plenty of streaming debates, interviews and Youtube has more political ads than I have ever seen. At least you can click them off after a short time. You need to keep the controller in your hand. 

Old standby, U.S. mail was another heavy lift, with multiple mailings every day. I suspect these mailers are probably around $2.00 a piece. The consultants most assuredly will be in Florida on the beach sooner and longer after this election season. It is estimated that 2024 will be a record amount with near $15 billion spent on federal elections.

I don't get newspapers, but I suspect they are not profiting much from campaign advertising. I suspect their failure to endorse is a result of their dying revenue from being so biased.

Campaigns could have saved plenty, but when you give consultants a free reign they will show you how to spend money quickly.

A few ideas for campaigns in the future, if we will have campaigns in the future. One would be to identify super voters who are committed to your campaign early on, I suspect many were committed months before the election. Eliminate text message and mailers to these people and save the money. As for fundraising 1 regular appeal would be best, on a timed basis or a commitment for a monthly donation, then stop begging for money every day.

A weekly text message with updates would most likely be read, rather than overwhelming the recipient with dozens everyday. Maybe slightly less money would be raised, but much less would be wasted.

Well, maybe it is at least over after tomorrow, unless, we will be seeing appeals for money to contest irregularities and other possible election problems. Then of course it is time to ready for the 2026 elections.

Will new president be a wartime president?

WILL WE BE IN GLOBAL WAR BEFORE JAN. 20, 2025?

CAN THE NEW PRESIDENT AVOID THIS CATASTROPHE?

We know that in 4 days a new president will be elected. The question is can this new president avoid being drawn into the escalating conflicts in several part of the world. We see escalating conflicts in Ukraine and the middle east. We see simmering tensions in the south China sea and Taiwan. Only serious diplomacy and an acknowledgment of the realities of the situations can bring about acceptable settlements. We have a very dangerous 2 1/2 months were the new president will not have the power to engage in any change of direction.

The neocons Ukraine project is lost. In reality, Ukraine is now a smaller country than in 2014 when this project started. It is economically devastated and will be poverty stricken for decades. At present there does not seem any acceptance by the west that Ukraine will not be a NATO member. Either an acceptable future can be negotiated or this will only end with nuclear confrontation.

The middle east is far more complicated, the division and hatred is now far more deep and widespread. The reality is that Israel cannot prevail by military force alone. It is bogged down in Gaza and South Lebanon and it's latest attempt to attack Iran was an eye opening understatement. The reports circulating, claim that Israel launched 100 planes. None of them entered Iranian air space and the missles launched were mostly shot down by Iranian air defense. The majority of the planes encountered electronic defenses that rendered much of their electronics inoperative and turned back. The second and third wave of attacks were aborted.

Now it is also reported that Iran is expecting to counterattack at any time. Hopefully that can be stopped or this crisis may render Israel resorting to nuclear weapons and then who know what happens.

The world situation is much like 1914, none of the major powers wanted war, but like then, alliances, hubris and the overwhelming lust for revenge launched all out war, that in reality didn't end until after WW2.  

80 years later and many have forgotten the suffering of war, Most of those who engaged in real war are long gone. The United States have not seen real war since the 1860's. Immune from attack by vast oceans that are no longer a guarantee from serious attack. The media and political forces have engaged in the demonisation of others to encourage public support for war. Many of these conflicts have been orchestrated and encouraged by people who desire endless war, whether for financial gain or a lust for power.

The new president, will have their hands full, and may be counselled to continue on the present course. A course that is destined to end in a catastrophe, possibly the end of civilization as we know it. It seems many no longer believe that such things are possible, that life will go on indefinitely,  no matter what decisions are made. I expect we are all going to be watching history being made.

Election season, system still not good enough.

 

SADLY, THERE WILL STILL BE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UPCOMING ELECTION 

WITHOUT REFORM, INTEGRITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUESTIONED

There have been some attempts to reform election methods that will make them more trusted, but sadly it has not gone far enough. As long as we have unlimited mail in ballots, unguarded drop boxes, machines that are connected to the internet, counting done only in large counting centers, there will be questions. We cannot trust our election results to be based on trust of political election officials and elections need to have the ability to be audited.

Here in Pennsylvania we have a Supreme court that has disregarded the constitution numerous time concerning mail in ballots. They should be impeached for not doing their constitutional duty.

Elections are critical to the success of any democratic government. Honest and clearly legitimate elections can only be conducted and accepted by the population if the elections and their results are auditable. Elections must be 100% verifiable. There cannot be a system were the results need to be accepted on faith in the process or the people in charge of the elections. It is clear this is not presently the case with our election system here in Pennsylvania or in many other states. It is time to put into  place a full proof auditable system of elections.

1. General mail in voting is to be eliminated. It allows multiple opportunities for fraud, abuse and is not verifiable. 

2. Absentee voting with cause is allowable. This would accommodate the handicapped, nursing home and hospitalized persons, the military, and persons required to work out of their voting district on the general election day. All first time applications for absentee ballot would need to be affirmed by a physician, nursing home administrator, superior military officer or work supervisor. All absentee ballots would require the identification number of the drivers license or state Identification. This would assure their place of residence.

Applications for absentee ballots would be kept for 24 months from date of the general election. Absentee ballots and applications would have an identification number coinciding with a number on their voter registration. This is necessary to have an auditable system.

Absentee ballots would be required to be received 10 days before the general election. Absentee ballots would be opened by teams of representatives of all political parties involved in the election. These representatives would be vetted and supplied by the political parties. Each team would stamp the ballots as complete and genuine and be initialed by the team, each team would have a team number. The ballots that they approve will be counted by the team and placed in a sealed container with a result of their count. A copy of their count will be placed on the outside of the container and each team member will keep a copy of their totals. On the general election day, all teams will be present to add their totals to general count and verify they are correct. All these ballots will be kept for 24 months from the general election.

3. General election ballots will also have a number placed on them coinciding with the number on the voters registration. This could be a number from the registration or coinciding with the signature record at the voting place. Ballots are to be counted by teams made up of individuals from all political parties involved in election. Ballots are counted at the precinct level and all ballots are sealed in boxes by the teams with a copy of the results inside, outside and kept by members of the team. Results are then communicated to county. All ballots will be kept for 24 months after the general election.

 Election Audit

Before any proclamation or certification of the results of an election an election audit team made up of representatives of all political parties involved in the election shall conduct a random sampling of districts for audit. These teams will be vetted and supplied by the political parties. They will begin their audits with both sides picking 6 districts or precincts in their county for spot auditing. This would be accomplished by picking 50 ballots from each selected district, identifying the voters and contacting them to verify their votes. If the results are 100 %. in all districts, no further action would be needed, if not there would need to be a more complete audit.

Registration

Registration may be performed as now, requiring Identification and also a group of auditors composed of representatives from all political parties to work together to assure addresses and voters are real. Registrations will be purged if voter does not participate in 2 consecutive presidential elections, or any other elections. Voter will be notified that his registration has lapsed with instructions as to how to re-register. 

The goal of this system of voting is to have an opportunity for representatives of both parties to work together and insure that everyone is satisfied that an honest and fair election has taken place. It should insure that the election results are recorded in a timely manner, without any doubts as to the validity of the vote. With precincts limited to 2000 voters, hand counting should be accomplished in several hours. This would eliminate the cost of electronic voting machines which have a high level of distrust by voters. This is a simple, less costly and fully auditable system that all Americans can and deserve to trust.

originally published 11/2/21

After 2022, now 2023, election integrity is still not assured. If not corrected, we will soon see a decline in voting and the real end of democracy.

7/30/24. No real changes to a flawed system. We must assume intentionally. All first timer registrations should also include proof of citizenship.

Kamala would like you to think, she is the candidate of change.

 NO POLICY, NO PLATFORM, ONLY TRUMP IS BAD

EVEN BIDEN, IS MISSING IN ACTION

It is interesting that listening to Kamala Harris, she likes to give the impression that Trump is the incumbent and she is the candidate of change. No mention of her accomplishment in the last 4 years, because she has none. No mention of the victories or accomplishments of the whole Biden Harris team, because there are none. She was given the opportunity to manage the border and she was a no show, did nothing or at least nothing positive. All democrat initiatives on the border were an attempt to make the entry into the country quicker, easier and more permanent.

We have record inflation, the lowest home affordability situation, the highest rents in history. Then promises more home loans and government housing. Loans that many will not be able to service. The highest food prices in history, making some items unaffordable to many. I guess her answer will be more food stamps.

The debt is now increasing at the rate of $2 trillion a year, a disaster with no solution in sight.

In foreign affairs we are at the greatest danger of world war since 1945. Mostly because this administration has intentionally gone around the world threatening a multitude of nations with economic sanctions and military intervention. Near 30% of the worlds nations are under U.S. sanctions of some kind.

Their policies have destroyed Ukraine and rather than a prosperous European nation, it is destined to be failed state, dependent on the west for decades.

The once situation of hope and peace in the middle east has exploded into a never ending cycle of revenge and death, with no end in sight. This administration does not have 1 credible diplomat that has any credibility in world affairs, neither with allies or competitors. We are in the worst foreign policy crisis in 70 years.

I guess we should understand why Kamala would like to distance herself from her own record, she understands that it is disastrous. The reality is that she has no idea how to correct any of this mess. 

If you Americans believe that it can not get any worse, I expect, if given the opportunity, she will prove you wrong. She is without a doubt the candidate of more of the same.

I voted by mail, I do not see the point.

 MUCH EASIER TO VOTE IN PERSON

MAIL VOTING: TOO MANY POSSIBLE BAD OUTCOMES

Yesterday I voted early with a mail in ballot. I did not trust putting it through the mail, so I dropped it in a drop box in west Allentown. I will give my opinion of the experience.

I applied by mail for a ballot, my ballot arrived 8 days after I mailed in my application. I am in Lehigh county. This was ok, as I had plenty of time to get my ballot in. Filling out the ballot was the same as in person, and putting it in the yellow envelope and signing and dating the mail envelope was no problem.

I did not feel comfortable mailing in the ballot, imagine this ballot going through many hands on its way to the court house, with your signature on the outside, I suppose it would be easy to determine ones political affiliation and trash the ballot, or even worse, open the outside envelope and switch the ballot. I never stop thinking about possibilities. After all, the post office union has endorsed Harris for President. The same could be true of biased election workers in the court house. They will have the ballot in their hands for a week.

As for easier, I had to travel about 15 miles to the nearest drop box, took near 1 hour for round trip, due to lots of traffic around Allentown. Box was inside and not accessible from outside, a good thing. I did see others dropping in ballots. 

I did get an email from the state when they received my application and I understand that I will receive notification when they get the ballot. All this is extra work and cost to the state.

My opinion is the same as before, it is far too complicated and the ballots are given multiple opportunities for something bad to happen. While I understand that service people and people who need to travel may need this opportunity, it is far too costly and too open to bad outcomes to be used by everyone. I will vote in person in the future, as long as I am able.