U.S and Russia on precipice of direct confrontation.

 U.S. MISSILE WITH U.S. CLUSTER MUNITIONS HITS RUSSIAN BEACHGOERS

WAS U.S. GLOBAL HAWK DOWNED IN BLACK SEA?

While we have seen the escalation in provocative signalling between Russia and the U.S. it is now very close to direct warfare. We have seen the U.S. give Ukraine the OK to use U.S. missiles in Russia's interior. The reality is these missiles are manned by U.S. personnel, guided by U.S. satellites and surveillance drones and Russia is considering these attacks, U.S. attacks. The latest attack on a Crimea beach on a holiday left several dead and up to 100 wounded. Public opinion in Russia is demanding a response.

At the same time, Russia has given North Korea one of the latest advanced ICBM missiles that is mobile, can carry multiple individually targeting warheads and has the latest diversionary defenses. It is, in effect, invulnerable to U.S. defenses and can reach the mainland USA. 

We have seen Russian ships in Cuba and it is possible Russian bases are to be built in Cuba, Venezuela and other nearby places. This is in response to NATO expansion to the borders of Russia with U.S. missiles and bases.

It has been reported that Russia has downed a U.S. Global Hawk surveillance drone that is used for Ukrainian targeting over the Black Sea. Russia has not confirmed and the U.S. has denied that this has happened. If it is true, and become public, the U.S. will be pressured by domestic politics to respond.

It is also reported that the defense heads of the U.S. and Russia have talked in the last few days, after many months of no contact, hopefully they can assure each other of some de-escalation.

While the Ukrainian army is in a desperate situation the temptation to escalate U.S. direct involvement is growing, it will inevitably be matched by a Russian response. Once direct conflict commences it may then be out of the control of both sides and lead to an unnecessary disaster for everyone.

This situation is now imminent unless a conscious effort is made to come to some accomodation. The question will be, Is hubris and domestic politics going to override sound rational judgement?.