Sanctions, ineffective, collateral damage.

 SANCTIONS HAVE NOT WORKED AND DAMAGE THE INNOCENT

HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE GLOBAL DIVIDE

Yesterday the UN's attempt to levy sanctions on Niger was thwarted by a Russian veto. It is just the latest in long list of attempts to change a nations policy by imposing sanctions. These sanctions were concerning a travel ban and asset freezes. They would not have made much impact and would have further hardened those sanctioned. 

Sanctions often hurt the citizens of these countries, while having little effect on the leadership. The idea is to squeeze the citizenry so they will rise up and oust their leadership. While this may have been a little effective decades ago, that strategy is now so well known that it actually hardens the attitude of populace and helps the leadership portray themselves as a victim. 

We have seen over 40 years of severe sanctions on Iran and they are still ruled by the same government. The citizens of Iran, who once  held the United States in a favorable light now view the U.S. as a determined enemy.  The same could be said of Russia, who in the 1990's viewed the United States as a friend and mentor, now view the country as an enemy. The same could be said for the citizenry of Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan, much of the middle east and soon maybe China, Germany and France. Sanctions have disrupted many lives and imposed economic hardship due to unintended consequences.

As for Niger, the excuse that France and the EU needs their Uranium requires control of their government. This same excuse was used for intervention in oil producing countries. These are commodities, they need to sell them and hostile actions and chaos will actually increase the chances of supply disruptions.from the country. While business is till being conducted, there is opportunity for diplomacy. Alienating these counties has led to a division when these countries seek alterative markets in retaliation to sanctions and a viscous cycle is then created where what they sought to avoid has become reality. 

At the root is the inability of powerful nations to not accept and respect the cultural, religious and security concerns of others. The insistence that they have the right to intervene in the domestic affairs of other countries.

We see the increasing resistance to sanctions of all sorts, it is time to relearn the art of diplomacy,  an art that has been replaced by threats, intimidation, economic warfare and death and destruction. It has resulted in a very dangerous situation that if not reversed will inevitably result in a global war that will make WW2 look a schoolyard skirmish. 

Republican federal candidates should refrain from any federal abortion legislation.

DO THEY BELIEVE IN LESS FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ?

THESE DECISIONS BELONG WITH THE STATES

The Supreme court made the correct decision by ruling that there is no constitutional right concerning abortion. This ruling did not ban abortion, it just allowed these decisions to be made at the state level, where it can be more responsive to the citizens of that state.

The fourth amendment concerned the right to privacy, particularly in your home and property and was to insure against an overbearing government searching, monitoring, infringing on your privacy,particularly  political opinions and the right to private property, something that the federal government has been infringing on at every opportunity. The federal candidates should focus on the true intent of the fourth amendment and not get baited into positions without any positive results, not for themselves, nor for the country. 

It is a stupid strategy that it seems they feel they need to have a position, and they cannot please anyone, no matter their position. There position should be," it is not a federal government matter". The federal government has so many immediate problems that maybe they could find some common ground, abortion is not one of them.

The Supreme court has contributed to the severe division in the country, by making rulings that are not based on the intent of the constitution. After all, the constitution is the law for the federal government, they should acknowledge and defend that the states are the best place to decide these controversial issues. This defense should also be made by candidates for federal office. Voters should beware of candidates who would expand the power of the federal government. The constitution clearly lays out their responsibilities, they should be taken literally and everything else should be decided by the states. It is the great relief valve of a constitutional republic.It promotes unity in the long run, not division by the majority oppressing the minority.

In election season we often hear state candidates propose laws that they have no legal authority to deal with and the same goes for federal candidates. Voters should reject all candidates who do not understand the duties, responsibilities and  limitations of the office they are intent on filling.

Attrition, Ukraine army, NATO members. Who will blink first?

 NO SERIOUS PROGRESS ON BATTLEFIELD, SERIOUS ECONOMIC ISSUES IN NATO 

PROLONGED WAR, ECONOMIC CRISIS

It seems no one anticipated the direction of this conflict in Ukraine, Russia, the U.S., NATO nor Ukraine.

The U.S. is undoubtedly the orchestrater of this drama and assured NATO and Ukraine that the combination of western weapons, economic sanctions and a trained Ukrainian military would trap Russia into capitulation in a matter of months. Russia believed a show of force and determination against NATO expansion would bring Ukraine to the negotiating table and insure a neutral Ukraine.

All these assumptions have been false and now the situation is no longer going to be a negotiated settlement that the west can call a victory. It is a war of attrition, both in Ukraine and in the economies of Western and Eastern Europe. Will this crisis end in a military victory or defeat or the reality that it needs to end if the economies of Europe are to survive?

Germany, the manufacturing center of Europe is on its way to be decimated economically. High energy prices, the loss of business in Russia and now China will mean that Germany, if it is to be a major economy, is running out of time to change the direction of events. So far, the government is locked into a track to just die without any hope. It seems most western politicians cannot adapt to the change  coming to their future. This situation is the same for all the western countries, even if not on the same level of Germany.

Eastern Europe, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Slovakia have told the EU that the ban on the import of Ukrainian grain must be extended past the September 15, expiration, or they will do it individually. The farmers in these counties will be devastated if they are compelled to compete with low priced grain competition. 

Poland and these counties are also overwhelmed with refugees from Ukraine that are now appearing to be permanent residents that they cannot afford to accommodate. 

Macron of France has been voicing his alarm at the shift in global trade and alliances that is going to have negative effects on France, both at home and in Africa. 

The credibility of the United States and its role as the leader of the western world has been seriously diminished. With no sign of a change of direction, it will spell a negative future for the U.S. and NATO. While the situation is dire, it can become significantly worse.  

This conflict in Ukraine, a conflict that could have been easily avoided, has now become a pivotal moment in the future of Europe and to some degree the entire world. While it is devastating the economies of Europe directly, it is also propelling a division of the global economic system that now is unlikely to be reversed. It is indeed the beginning of new world order, that as yet has not been fully defined, but is now inevitable.

Push back on sanctions, Trade war, Global recession.

CHINA HAS BEEN CANCELLING PURCHASES FROM WEST

PREFERING TO TRADE WITH THOSE NOT ENGAGED IN SANCTIONS 

China has recently shocked several nations with cancellations of huge orders. There has been a concerted effort by the United States to encourage its allies to deny China certain materials and supplies that the United States feels would slow the Chinese economy. This has been Silicon chips from the United States and machine tools from Japan and Germany. This follows the total sanctions on all Russian products.

It seems that this policy is now having repercussions for the United States and much of the world. China has so far cancelled near 15 million metric tons of corn purchase from the United States, it seems they can buy these products for less in Brazil, a country that has refused to use sanctions against trade partners.

This past week saw China cancel $100 billion in auto orders from Germany, a country reeling from losing its entire auto business in Russia due to self imposed sanctions. It also has had their energy prices quadruple and is making much of their manufacturing business uncompetitive. Germany is officially in recession with no end in sight.

China has also canceled $150 billion in machine purchases from Japan. Japan's machine tool order are down near 40%. This followed Japan's slowing the delivery of certain strategic products. 

China has also responded to U.S. refusal to sell certain silicon chips. They have now produced the everyday chips at prices that will result in layoffs in Texas instruments and Intel. It can be expected that they can buy machine tools from Russia and Brazil and they will soon produce their own chips.

The sanctions that have eliminated the purchase of high tolerance machined parts from Russia have forced U.S. manufacturers to purchase from China, but all products shipped to the U.S. have a 40% tariff. Products shipped to subsidiaries in other countries have no tariffs.

The Trump administration engaged China in tariff reciprocity. The goal was to remove tariffs on U.S. products. It was done with respect and diplomacy. It also hoped to reduce taxes and regulation to make production in the U.S.. possible. This administration has portrayed China as an enemy, talked of war and is in engaged in encircling China with new military bases. This policy will indeed make China an enemy. 

This growing economic war of sanctions is having detrimental effects and no positive results. It is unlikely that it can be reversed in the near future. It can only lead to recession, lay-offs and economic decline by everyone, but particularly in the west, which is now dependent on products from China and Russian products and resources.

It is a delusional idea that these products will soon return to being produced in the United States. The foundries, steel plants and machine shops have all been dismantled. Regulation will not be conducive for these plants to be rebuilt. Then it will take generations of proper child rearing and a value placed on making things rather than paper shuffling. Things that make smoke, dirt and sweat. If a serious effort was begun now it would take 20-30 years to become reality. There is no serious effort and not likely in the near future.

BRICS now 37% of global GDP, 46% of global population.

 BRICS EXPANDS FROM 5 TO 11

EGYPT,  SAUDI ARABIA,  ARGENTINA,  UAE,  IRAN,  ETHIOPIA

Yesterday was the conclusion of the 15th BRICS meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa. It was announced that 6 new members were invited to join on Jan. 1, 2024. It was the first expansion of this group since its inception 15 years ago. It will add credibility, wealth and strategic positions to this BRICS group.

Argentina is the second South American nation to join this group, the second largest nation in South America. Together with Brazil it will be the vast majority of land mass on the continent. Argentina has had severe economic problems and is slated for elections in the near future. Maybe a fresh approach with this economic union will set them on a better course.

Egypt, with a population of 109 million, sits strategically in Africa and the middle east. It has the largest population in the middle east and will be a major asset to this group.

Iran, the second largest nation in the middle east and a large oil producer will add another major oil producer to the BRICS. Its position is strategic to connect Russia to the south with its proposed rail lines to the gulf. It will give Iran the ability to trade, bypassing western sanctions. Hopefully the ability to prosper economically will soften its policy of islamic expansion.

Saudi Arabia, the worlds premier oil producer and financial hub in the middle east will be a huge addition to this group. It has been ready to free their oil trade from the dollar for some time and escape the possibility of sanctions and declining value of the dollar as the worlds petro exchange vehicle. It has responded to negative comments and attempts to intimidate them by this present U.S. administration.

United Arab Emirates, a large financial hub for the middle east, coupled with Saudi Arabia and Iran they will find this association to be important to the financial transactions of this group.

Finally Ethiopia, the third African nation, it will be watched by many of the other African nations to see if this union will benefit this nation.

The meeting also has begun forming a criteria for addition nations joining, at present there are over 40 nations interested in joining. One could expect a large number to be added by the next meeting. Countries from Mexico in North America, Algeria in northern Africa, central Asia. and the far east are expected to be considered in the future.

It was also announced that work is continuing on the process of trading in these countries currencies. Argentina will be special case and it can be expected that they will not all be integrated at once. It seems they do not want a world reserve currency dominated by one country. They are looking for an alternative method with currencies pegged to their weight in gold.

While many view this group as a threat to western power, it does not have to be so. They do not want to not trade with the west, they just want the freedom to trade with whoever they feel is in their best interest. They want to escape the economic intimidation of sanctions and the pressures for social revolution that are often contrary to their religious and cultural traditions.

The policy of choosing sides without the alternative of neutrality in world affairs is at the root of this new alternative. The failures of the west to consider the culture and interests of others has created the desire for this alternative. Hopefully the west can adjust without risking more chaos and war. 

An increased hostility from the west will only likely result in the worst outcome, a truly duel trading block, rich in workers, resources and desire for self determination.

Is Wagner group now in Niger?

CAN NATO RESIST THE OPPORTUNITY TO CHALLENGE WAGNER OUTSIDE OF UKRAINE

WAGNER MAY BE MORE POPULAR IN AFRICA THAN NATO

The first videos by Yevgeny Prigozhin since his time in Ukraine have surfaced and appear to be from Niger in Africa.  It has been rumored that the coup leaders in Niger have requested aid for the Wagner group to help with their security. This video will undoubtedly be of serious interest to the French, who have almost no credibility by the people in Africa, and have been given a deadline to leave Niger. 

The ESCWA group of west African counties have pledged to return the deposed leader of Niger to power even by military force. They have threatened and oked troops assembling, but have not as yet made any assault on Niger. This group is publicly being encouraged by France, which still has around 1500 troops in Niger. While the U.S. will likely also support this, they as yet seem to be undecided as to how much support to offer. The U.S. has  a major air force base with around 1100 personnel in Niger. Both neighboring countries Burkina Faso and Mali have promised to ally with Niger in any military conflict, these counties also host Wagner forces.

The U.S. sent Victoria Nuland to Niger and was not received by the leaders of the coup, but she seemed to convey that they should not seek assistance from Wagner. France has complained that the U.S. have not supported them in this crisis. It could be that the U.S. values its new base in Niger more than its allegiance to France's economic interests in Africa.

The presence of foreign troops in Africa is supposed to be to fight and suppress the inroads of Islamic fundamentalists like Al Qaeda and ISIS. The U.S. is not hated with the same intensity as France and may be intent on focusing on the bigger picture of power in Africa.

Wagner group has a strong approval by the countries they are based in because they have been very effective in keeping terrorist's out of those countries. They have focused on helping increase security for these countries and not on perpetuating neo-colonial policies.

The question is, will the U.S. be able to co-exist with Wagner forces in these same countries, without being tempted to confront them? Did Wagner make its presence known to bait the U.S. into a confrontation that could be viewed negatively by the African populance? It is complicated situation that has the possibilities of serious consequences for Africa. The last thing Africa needs is a geopolitical struggle to break out in the continent.

 

Our ongoing live reality show, exposing government corruption.

 EIGHT YEAR SERIES FEATURING DONALD TRUMP CONTINUES

WE SEE THE PLOT, HAVE WE UNDERSTOOD THE MESSAGE?

Sometimes one has to wonder if Donald Trump is an actor in this ongoing drama or just a prop and a fictitious character in an ongoing live documentary.  In the fashion of a Shakespearian play that stimulates all the basest human emotions to produce a plot and a message that is often an extreme exaggeration of all the frailties of human psychology and interaction.

If one would set out to write a book or produce a documentary in an effort to expose the corrupt political world we live in, whether it was about domestic affairs or the international arena it would pale in the impact and effectiveness to this present reality production. It is ever present, never ending and it seems inescapable. Will it continue until none of the messages can be denied and must be addressed.

Most novels and plays have a hero and at least one villain, this play may not have a hero, but the villains seem to be a cast of thousands. While many would consider Trump a hero and he often gains sympathy, due to the constant unending predicaments he is faced with. Like some farfetched drama where the hero is always near his doom, but always manages to extricate himself, often at the last minute, and then survives.until the next attack. Is Trump in this part because of his unrelenting ability to take punishment, embarrassment and continue? What possible life experience has prepared him for this part? One sometimes must wonder if he is a conscious actor or is he just programmed to keep going, fight every battle, until the ultimate conclusion, which like all good stories, no one can predict.

Without a doubt, Trump's very existence on the political scene has motivated all the corrupt politicians, bureaucrats and government agencies and their servants, the media, to come out of the closet to do battle against Trump and his followers. They also seem to be programmed to cross every rubicon, every legal red line, every moral limit to destroy Trump. It seems they cannot contain themselves and must do everything possible to destroy Trump and his policies. The whole process seems to be an exaggeration of outrageous human behaviour, without restraint.

One must wonder why, like opponents in the past, they could have just killed him years ago, blamed it on Muslim extremists or some abortion activist. They certainly have not shown any restraint in their efforts to silence those who would challenge them, to cover up corruption,very transparently, in high places. Why is there this restraint or do they believe this play also works to deaden and weaken the publics view of any standards that restrain power in a government supposedly, by the people. Will all this exaggerated hate become the acceptable norm.

Whatever, maybe one day we will know it all. Without a doubt, this play has been playing worldwide, it has revealed the dark side of politics in a country that has always portrayed itself as an example to the world. It has damaged faith in this county by its revelations. It appears that it must go on until all the corruption and excesses can no longer be denied, that even the most cynical will be repulsed by these evil machinations.