Kursk incursion may end in trap.

 ADVANCE STOPPED IN NORTH AND EAST

ADVANCE TO WEST LAST HOPE

The Ukrainian attack into Russia is now at a pivotal stage.  This attack was in an area lightly defended by border patrol and local reservists, who were overwhelmed by this well planned and executed invasion. It has now been 1 week and it appears the ability of Ukraine to advance to the north has been stopped. It is very close to being cut off in the east. That leaves just the possibility of advancing to the west and if they can accomplish a meeting of new troops in that area, they may be able to hold on for some time. If they are unable to do that, they risk being trapped on 3 sides and left with the possibility of being annihilated or forced to retreat. This should be decided in the next few days.

No one really understands for sure what the objective of this attack is other than giving hope to their suppliers that they may still prevail or to sow discord inside Russia. Some believe it was a negotiating tool in the ongoing talks, but it is reported that Russia has now cancelled any further talks. 

The reality is that if they can hold on to this area, they will need to be supplied with men and materials, that are already in short supply. The Russians are advancing at an accelerating rate all along the eastern front, possibly enhanced by Ukraine shifting troops for the Kursk invasion.

It does appear that Ukraine is making desperate decisions because it understands that the present course of the conflict is getting unsustainable.

The reality is that Ukraine has been fighting a retreating battle for over a year. The last years spring offensive was supposed to hobble Russia, maybe recapture Crimea and then place Ukraine in a negotiating position. None of that has happened and it is likely this conflict will only end in a defeat and surrender.

With hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded and a loss of the manufacturing base of the country, there is no good outcome left for Ukraine. The west, and the likes of Lindsey Graham are just excited by the hope of damage to Russia. The Ukrainians are just so much fodder for that purpose.