Ukraine's desperate actions will not change outcome of conflict.

 LITTLE CHANCE OF IMPROVING NEGOTIATING POSITION

RUSSIA'S DEMANDS WILL NOT CHANGE

Much has been made of Ukraine's incursion into Russia into the Kursk region, it will not have any effect on the outcome of this conflict. While Ukraine has made inroads, Russia is very predictable in their strategy.  They seem to be very methodical in setting up defensive lines, then proceeding to grinding down their opponent with overwhelming artillery and drone attacks. There never seems to be a timetable or a rush to end the conflict, just a steady attrition, we can expect the same in Kursk. Ukraine has now legnthened the conflict line that it now has to support with men and equipment.

No one is sure what the hopes of Ukraine were with this offensive. Some believe they hoped to quickly move north and capture the Kursk nuclear plant and agree to trade it for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear  plant controlled by the Russians. Some speculate that they hope to use this incursion as a bargaining tool in negotiations. No one knows for sure.

The reality is that the Russian's continue to make daily advances all along the conflict line in the east. It is the same slow deliberate attrition of men and equipment that seems to be the Russian tactic. We see that the massive supply of supplies and equipment from the west is not changing the course of this battle. The economic and social costs to the west are increasing, with unrest due to inflation and a decline in prosperity. It is a war of attrition not only on the manpower of Ukraine, but also on the ability of the west to continue their support. 

Russia is clear about its position, the same position it held before the outbreak of hostilities, the same position it held for the last 20 years. No NATO expansion to the borders of Russia. All that has changed is that Ukraine is now smaller in territory and is continually shrinking. Its economy is near non-existent and is wholly dependent on the west for support, a situation that may last for years.

There is no solution that will not require a losing of face by the west or an escalation that will result in more death and destruction for everyone.