Declaring Victory and moving on?

 IS THIS CEASEFIRE REAL?

OR KABUKI THEATER

In an amazing turn of events, at least a pause in the Iran/Israel/U.S. war is underway. Yesterday, Iran, after informing the U.S. of it intentions, fired missiles at U.S. bases, without much reported damage.Then a ceasefire is reported to go into effect in the coming days. We will have wait to see what is really going on.

Iran has ministers in Russia for consultation and we can expect the behind the scenes conversations have been going on, what exactly is happening is anyone's guess.

It is now widely accepted that the U.S. attack on the nuclear facilities had unverified and less than a decimating effect. It seems that some now want to declare victory and move on. 

Of course, Iran has suffered serious damage to its leadership and Israel has been subjected to 12 days of daily attacks with significant damage to its infrastructure and its ability to run its economy. There is also an exodus of citizens out of the country. It is also reported that its air defenses are in critical need of restocking. If this ceasefire holds, it will allow Israel to resupply, and Iran to receive aid from Russia and China.

Is this the end, or just a pause in preparation for the next round?

There is just too many unknowns to be able to really understand what is going on behind the scenes. 

While Iran has not blocked the straits of Hormuz, it is reported that traffic has been severely slowed, by a combination of Tanker owners being apprehensive about moving in the region, insurance costs dramatically increasing and it will take some time to be brought back to normal under the best of conditions.

While there may be a ceasefire and talk of negotiations, have the demands of no nuclear facilities for Iran and total disarmament changed? Are the advocates for Regime change now being suppressed? Has anything really changed from 2 weeks ago, or is it just a performance to satisfy the desires of all temporarily?