Trump trapped, No way out.

 CONFLICT IS LIKELY TO LAST FOR THE REST OF HIS PRESIDENCY

BOOTS ON THE GROUND MAY BE INEVITABLE

While many seem to believe that the Iran invasion has been successful and that Iran has no choice but to surrender, recent mid-east history should be a window into where this going. We can all remember Bush 2 declaring "mission accomplished" after a week of the Iraq war that lasted many months and years after that. 

So, Trump has declared that he will decide within 2 weeks how to proceed in this war, that he has now become at least part owner of all that is to come. The present decision is whether to bomb Iran's nuclear sites, a mission that will need to be accomplished by U.S. troops. This will then become a war with Iran and the U.S. with all the that goes with it. If this war is about ending Iran's nuclear program then he really has no choice in this decision. 

While the euphoria of Israel's success continues in the media, the fact remains that every night Iran is able to do some damage to Israel. The number of missiles incoming is declining, but the success percentage is increasing and many believe that Iran used many of its dummy and inferior missiles to deplete Israel's defenses. If this continues, Trump will be lobbied to come to the aid of Israel by U.S. direct military action. Israel has sustained over $500 billion in infrastructure damage, a lot for small country. At present, all filming is being restricted in an attempt to make much of this damage deniable.  Trump will be forced to come to the direct aid of Israel. It is also reported that many Israelis of means are exiting by any way possible, mostly by way of the Mediterranean by boat.

Again the stated goal is to destroy Iran's nuclear capability, it is being debated if this is even possible, even with the much touted bunker busting bombs.  If unsuccessful, only ground action will be able to accomplish this goal. 

While this is the stated goal, the goal really is the "Libyan Plan" a process of disarming Iran either by submission or military action then making Iran a wasteland similar to what has become of Libya, once the most prosperous country in Africa. This and the handing over to western interests its oil resources as reparations. Iran knows this and will not take that route.

Then there is the growing complications internationally. Pakistan and the 6 gulf countries has refused to grant its territory as bases or air for war against Iran. Many of those bases are being evacuated by the U.S. This will force the U.S. to take action by predictable paths making them more vulnerable.

China has now moved surveillance ships into the Persian gulf to assist Iran with surveillance and targeting information. It is also reported that Chinese planes are in the process of steady flights of unknown equipment into Iran. The Chinese and Egypt have also been communicating and some believe that Iran may strike the Suez canal to hinder traffic through the canal. Both the U.S. and Israel have been warned by Pakistan and Russia that the use of nuclear weapons by Israel or the U.S. will trigger a response. A long drawn out conflict will look like Ukraine in reverse.

No action by Trump may now be politically impossible and any action will result in an dramatic escalation with the loss of life and destruction increasing by many multiples. A typical trap that seems to be a pattern that has made war impossible to avoid.