Why quick ceasefire?

 MORE FACTS ABOUT WHO WANTED CEASEFIRE

PAUSE UNTIL NEXT ROUND?

Many were surprised to watch the 12 days of Iran/US/ Israeli conflict pause in a dramatic ceasefire. Let's look at the facts by all sides to see why this happened and if it is going to be a lasting end to the conflict.

Israel initiated this conflict, supposedly because of Iran's imminent ability to make nuclear weapons. This long planned attack was actually an effort to topple the government of Iran in a massive attack on the leadership of the country. It was successful in killing many of the leadership and also many in their scientific community. It was also designed to damage their communication and control and their air defense. It was successful and there were messages and speeches encouraging the citizens to rise up and overthrow the government. It became clear in a short time that this attack actually rallied support for the government of Iran. Iran was also able within 24 hours to reestablish command and control and begin a counter offensive with missle attacks on Israel. It appears that Israel hoped that the U.S. would quickly enter into this conflict, when it appeared they were winning.  

The Trump administration has been under extreme pressure from within the United States and Israel to attack Iran. Many were claiming that the government was weak and that there was little support for the government. It was claimed that a massive attack would cause an escalating collapse within the country. A very similar assessment of what would happen to Russia in such a crisis. It appears that Trump became convinced that Israeli intelligence had a better grasp of the analysis than the U.S. intelligence community. Trump has been apprehensive about getting involved in a drawn out war in the region as it would interfere with his bigger priorities both at home and on the world stage.

Iran has refused to take the bait numerous time and only responded in a limited way to numerous Israeli attempts to bait Iran into war. All with the hope that the U.S. would be forced to destroy Iran. Finally it appears that Israel made the decision to execute their long planned effort and gave Iran no other option but to respond. Below is a map showing the effects of the Iranian response on Israel. 

Sonar21.com

At the outset Iran sent massive numbers of drones and missiles that caused Israel to use large amounts of air Defense missiles, literally Billion of dollars of missiles. It soon became clear that Israel would soon become short of the required missiles and with the ports and airports closed it would soon become difficult to replace.  After some time, the number of missiles launched by Iran was reduced, but the percentage that hit, rose. After using up their obsolete and sometimes non warhead missiles they dipped into their more effective and larger missiles. some believe that at the rate things were going Israel would be in a very difficult position in a week or ten days. It was clear what was happening when Israel banned photos and videos from being taken. That's when the idea of a ceasefire became imperative.

Trump, who initially denied involvement in the attack, then when it was so successful, claimed partnership, then when intelligence showed where things were going, was all too willing to bomb the nuclear facilities, claim victory and a ceasefire.

As for Iran, they understood that if Israel's existence became threatened it would either draw in the U.S. or even possibly cause Israel to resort to nuclear weapons. Trump also offered some sanctions relief which he has since withdrawn.

Now, we are back to square one, some claiming the need to strike again, since the first strikes were not conclusive, from Israel, the domestic opponents and neocons. Trump would probably prefer to stay out, but the pressure is again going to be enormous.  Israel probably has some plan B strategy in mind. Iran is getting support from China with weapons and they may have made headway in world public opinion.  

Most believe that a resumption of war is very likely in the near future.