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Saturday, June 21, 2025

Trump not the only one trapped.

 NETANYAHU NOW CAUGHT IN A DEADLY SQUEEZE

INTERFERING IN OTHERS DOMESTIC POLITICS CAN BE DANGEROUS


Several weeks ago there was speculation that Benjamin Netanyahu had enough influence in the United States Senate to hinder the passage of Trump's budget bill. At the same time there was enormous pressure from inside the United States for the U.S. to attack Iran. A venture that was equally resisted by Trump's base of support. A support that has, in the last week, become possibly critical for Trump's future as president.

This attack that Israel undertook 9 days ago was most likely taken with Trump's awareness, but was not with a feeling of confidence in it's outcome. We watched as Israel, by covertly smuggling drones and saboteurs into Iran was able to kill much of the Iranian leadership, also able to damage Iran's defenses. Within days Israel was stating that there was now an open corridor into Iran, a message to the U.S. that it was now all clear for the U.S. to take out the nuclear facilities. This may have been the plan to start the destruction of Iran, that Israel is incapable of carrying out on its own.

There is now questions about how clear this airspace is, Iran has reported that they have taken down 5 F35's. Israel claims they have not lost any planes, some may question that. There are also reports that most of Israel's attacks are being accomplished with standoff attacks often outside of Iranian airspace. I suspect that U.S. intelligence has a clear picture of the situation. The plan was for an immediate U.S. attack on the nuclear facilities, Trump is talking about 2 weeks. Can Israel absorb daily hits to its infrastructure for another 2 weeks? It has lost 2 of its 3 refineries, only 1 airport is functioning and its main harbor has had severe damage. Israel has shut down much of reporting from inside and has banned the exit of citizens from the country. It is also running low on defensive missiles.

Politically, Netanyahu won a no confidence vote by only 2 votes only days before this attack. Israel is not winning with world public opinion. This attack has broken numerous UN rules and laws. At the same time, it appears a U.S. attack will indeed trigger a serious response from Iran that will plunge the U.S. into a prolonged and daily escalating conflict that will end the effectiveness of the Trump presidency. Netanyahu has been advocating for an attack on Iran for 30 years. It has always been that Iran was within weeks of a nuclear weapon. It may true, but crying wolf for 30 years has consequences. An attack on Iran by Bush 2 was rejected because the cost benefit analysis was very bad. Same for Obama, same for Trump first term, same for even Biden, I expect that an objective analysis is the same, the costs to the U.S. and world far exceed the benefits.

Will Israel now orchestrate an attack on U.S. bases and blame it on Iran, a deadly serious and risky operation with much of the world now focused on the activities in the region? Is it possible to now pass the budget bill quickly as an incentive for Trump to take action? 

Every day that goes by adds to the decimation of Israel. It also raises the possibility of more desperate actions that will end in more death and destruction. Many claim that Iran has been planning for just such a situation since 2003 and will not surrender or go down without a fight. 

A very precarious situation for Israel and for the U.S. 




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