RESULTS OF ATTACK IRRELEVANT
HAS REGIME CHANGE BEEN CANCELED?
Obviously no one at this time understands what the results of the attack on Iran and the subsequent ceasefire will be in the long term. At least for now, Trump has fulfilled the desires of Netanyahu and the crowd advocating for an attack on Iran. He has fulfilled their demands and possibly kept the U.S. out of a protracted war with Iran. What has gone on behind the scenes between Iran, Russia, China and the U.S. may never be revealed, but it appears some kind of plan is in the works.
At present, Iran, Israel and the U.S. are declaring victory. What all this means is still not very clear for the long term future of the region.
The Netanyahu plan was that an attack on Iran would inevitably require the assistance of the U.S. What transpired was that Trump watched and waited, instead of immediately joining in the attack on Iran. 12 days of nightly Iranian attacks were in fact depleting Israel's defensive ability and time was on Iran's side to cause severe damage to Israel's infrastructure and economic viability. Iran's leadership was seriously injured but it would take assistance from the U.S. for Israel to prevail in defeating Iran. The time was ripe for a ceasefire and the strike on Iran's nuclear facilities allowed Trump to declare victory and allow for an end of the hostilities, at least for now. Whether the facilities are completely destroyed, is now irrelevant, it appears there will not be any future U.S. attacks at this time.
It is no secret, that there was U.S. communications with Iran, probably through intermediaries, there was no resistance to the attack and everyone was evacuated and possibly some of its equipment. Iran communicated with the U.S. before its response attacks on U.S. bases, everyone was evacuated and no one was injured, face saving for Iran's domestic audience. Within hours a ceasefire was announced, amazing and reeks of some preconceived agreement.
We can only assume that Iran has been given some assurances going forward. In the UN it is being debated, that according to international law, Iran has the right for peaceful use of nuclear energy, actually the same guidelines as the first agreement, between Iran and the U.S. In the future a UN vote may give the U.S. some cover to enact that agreement. We will have to see.
The reality is that Iran has been portrayed in much of the world as the victim in this affair, Israel coupled with the situation in Gaza has been seriously losing in the world public opinion and in the United States.
Israel's frustration with this long running conflict is understandable, and it is hoped some kind of better situation can be attained. New leadership in Israel may be the opportunity to seek real solutions for the long term, obviously the current path will most likely bring about the demise of the Israel experiment, as protracted war is unsustainable, economically, politically and militarily.
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