Playing Russian Roulette over Ukraine.

 RUSSIA IS NOT GOING TO QUIT

DELUSIONAL HOPE IS NOT A POLICY

It seems the policy makers in the U.S. believe that if they can make the Ukraine war costly enough to Russia they will just give up and return all Ukraine's former territory. They then will accept Ukraine's membership in NATO and allow U.S. missiles on their border. This is their hope that is based on their delusional narrative. The reality is that Russia, not just Putin, will fight NATO expansion to the ultimate war if necessary.

Russia began warning the west about NATO expansion as soon as it was proposed by Bush 2 in 2008. It then took action with the U.S. assisted coup in Ukraine and annexed Crimea which was part of Russia for centuries. Again, the warnings were never heard and Russia was dismissed as a gas station posing as a nation. Then in 2022 Ukraine began preparations to reclaim Crimea and also reclaim Donetsk and Luhansk and the Russians, eventually after many attempts at a negotiation, invaded those areas. Russia has since held referendums in 4 eastern oblasts and Crimea and now consider those areas part of Russia. They will not be returned short of defeat in nuclear war.

Ukraine could have preserved all their territory except Crimea with a peace proposal that was accepted in March 2022 in Turkey. It was squashed by the U.S. and UK and now Ukraine is in the last gasps of their inevitable defeat. Of course, the political operatives in the west want them to fight on, especially until after the next election. Ukraine is, in effect, a failed state that survives wholly on western financial support not only for their war effort but pensions, health care, everything that costs at least $5 billion a month. It will remain a failed state as long as it aspires to be part of NATO.

Ukraine could have been a neutral country, and possibly the most prosperous European country, it is now disastrously ruined for decades to come.

Now the latest plan is to allow Ukraine with the assistance of U.S. and British military to send long range missiles into Russia. Russia again has warned that this will be responded to, and again it is being ignored, claiming that Russia is bluffing.  When playing Russian Roulette, if after 5 pulls of the trigger, you are still alive, does that mean the sixth will have a similar outcome.

It is doubtful that Russia will resort to nuclear weapons if these long range weapons are used, but if it comes to an existential threat to Russia, that the West insists on, they will be used.

Russia still has not targeted the government buildings in Kiev. Does anyone doubt that they can flatten them all in one night?  Russia has not destroyed all the bridges across the Dnieper river that allow transport of these western materials. Russia has not taken out the satellites that the U.S. use to provide targeting to the Ukrainians. Russia has a lot of options without directly targeting NATO. If it come to an all out attack on NATO, it most likely will not be a conventional attack or a limited nuclear attack.

It could be like the 6ths pull in the roulette game.

Is Interventionism bleeding the U.S. dry?

 ARE WE REACHING THE LIMITS ?

MASSIVE COSTS  ATTEMPTING PRESERVATION OF DOMINANCE

At present the United States is attempting to control 3 crisis situations at the same time. It is an addition to the usual 700 + military bases and billions spent to foreign aid and other cost associated with maintaining its dominant position in the world.

Osama bin Laden repeated the warning many time to the U.S. that his objective was to bleed the United States to the point of collapse. The attack on the world trade center in 2001 was not only an act of revenge, but a conscious decision based on the predictable response from the United States. This event triggered a massive response that is still being paid for today. Not only 20 years in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, but the added costs of the security state that is till escalating. This massive cost was triggered by the first gulf war, which was orchestrated by baiting Saddam Hussein into invading Kuwait in 1991, it continues today. It was the beginning of military intervention around the world.

At present the United States has 2 carrier groups stationed in the middle east, It cost 6.5 million a day per group. We have another in the south China sea. While everyone expects some response from Iran on Israel that will require U.S. assistance. Iran has learned these lessons well. The cost to the U.S are clicking up steadily. Israel's economy is tanking as it maintains military readiness and limited flights into and out of Israel. The Hamas attack near 1 year ago has resulted in a similar Israeli response that is unsustainable. The bleeding goes on without any attack from Iran.

Then of course there is the Ukraine conflict. It was orchestrated by the United States by pushing NATO expansion into Ukraine when everyone knew this would result in a response from Russia. A response that the west hoped would result into a deep push into Ukraine that would bleed Russia to the point of exhaustion and a hoped for regime change in Russia. Russia, having witnessed the results of intervention, began preparing for this in 2008, just as the U.S. began its same preparations.  Russia began preparations for both an economic and military conflict.   

The United States has likely spent over $300 billion in direct costs, not to mention the economic costs that have resulted from the economic sanctions war. Western Europe has depleted it military supplies, suffered high inflation in food and energy and is beginning to experience growing social unrest. A large part of world's economy is moving away from the the U.S. and the west which will inevitably cause severe economic decline, if not war.

Then we have the ongoing and accelerating conflict with China, supposedly over Taiwan, which is a similar situation as Ukraine. We have transformed China from an economic competitor into an enemy and also created the climate for a Russia/China alliance. Much of this animosity and conflict has been stoked by loose talk and threats and intimidation which has convinced China that in its security interest, it needs to create a large military, which it can do much more quickly and efficiently than the U.S. 

At present there is no reevaluation of our interventionist policy, it is supported by the majority of Democrats and Republicans in congress. One must wonder if this delusion of desiring to rule the world is the last gasp of the American empire, not from military defeat, but from economic and political collapse. 

Why trade war with China is a big loser.

 DELUSIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC POWER OF THE WEST

WEST IS 12 % OF WORLD POPULATION

We see Germany and Spain balking at cooperating with the EU at putting tariffs on Chinese Electric vehicles. We watched as China cancelled most all grain purchases from the U.S. in response to the electronic chip embargo from the U.S. and the corresponding crisis in the U.S. chip business. We see that Western Europe is still buying Russian gas. If Russia actually shut off energy to western Europe it would usher in an economic crisis. Germany has lost its vehicle market in Russia. It has very large and important trade with China in vehicles and manufacturing machinery and mining equipment. Warning alarms are being sounded from many places, but the obsession with containing Russia and China is now entering the critical stage. Sanctions and tariffs are not going to contain these countries, that only leaves the war option.

The reality is that he west is only 12% of the world's population, the rest of the world is growing in wealth and becoming a vast market for all things that Russia and China can produce. In a very short time the west can be replaced by the other 7.2 billion people that are not part of the western alliances, that is exactly what is happening. The rest of the world can survive and prosper without the economic activity from the west. The question is, can the west survive without access to those materials and markets? The move to replace the economic domination of the west is rapidly accelerating and will not be stopped with sanctions and tariffs.

The only credible option is a realization that only cooperation and coexistence is the solution and at present the political powers in the west are hell bent on supremacy rather than coexistence. 

Trump's initial tactic of using tariff's on products from China was called reciprocity and it was in effect a move to eliminate protection by China on U.S. products and an effort to narrow the trade imbalance. That was why China agreed to buy massive amounts U.S. grain.  China had tariffs on U.S, cars etc.. Now we see western leaders including Trump calling for massive tariffs on all Chinese products in an effort to contain China's expansion.

Below is some economic reality as to the economic power of the United States as compared to China and Russia. It is relevant if anyone believes that they can still economically contain those competitors without violent conflict.

It is interesting that we often hear that the United States has the biggest Gross Domestic Product in the world. In the real flow of dollars this measure may be accurate, but is it really a gauge of sustainability, endurance and the real ability to produce wealth. 

Today the GDP of the United States is estimated at $26.5 Trillion. Manufacturing accounts for 11% or $2.92 Trillion dollars this includes manufactured products, mining and agriculture. The largest segment of U.S. GDP is Professional and business services at 13%. Real estate rental and leasing at 12%. Government wages etc. 12%, Wholesale and retail trade at 12%, Arts, information and entertainment 10%, Health and social services 9%. Finance and Insurance 8%, Construction 4%. Miscellaneous 10%

Total debt public and private in the U.S. is now $93.5 trillion. $34 Trillion of federal government debt.

China has an estimated GDP  of $25.46 Trillion. Its manufacturing and agriculture accounts for 40.9% or $10.41 Trillion. Over 3 times that of the US.

Its Government debt is estimated at $9.5 Trillion.

Russia GDP is estimated at $5.5 trillion, Manufacturing  and agriculture is 36.69 % or $2.02 Trillion. Government debt is an eye opening estimate of only $343 Billion.

This is my point, When you strip out all the money that is generated by non-wealth producing activities, we see that the real wealth of these nations is not as far apart as many would like to believe. 

I suspect a similar comparison to western European nations would show similar results. It explains why Russia is able to manufacture military supplies that actually seems to outperform the U.S. and the European production. Much of the financial activity is focused on things that do not support life or create wealth.

Then compare the debt, and if objective, subtract the debt from the GDP and it is startling. 

Real economics has always believed that wealth is created by resources and labor producing things that have more value than the value of the resources and labor. Real wealth creation. 

China is without a doubt far and above everyone in real wealth creation. The United States and Russia are more comparable.  Then consider that China has over 1 billion population, The U.S. 340 million and Russia an estimated 140 million. If we would then compare these figures with population it would be an indication of productivity per person in actual wealth creation.

Realistic comparison should show why the west cannot succeed in a trade war with the rest of the world.

No stopping new global economic order.

 BEST HOPE IS COOPERATION AND COEXISTENCE

U.S. ADVANTAGE HAS SELF DESTRUCTED

We hear how some believe that the U.S. can preserve the economic advantage that it has enjoyed since WW2. The U.S. has lost that advantage due to the policies of its own government, both Republican and Democrat. It has taken 50 years for this advantage to be destroyed and it can no longer be restored. The best hope is that wise leadership will be able adapt and engage in a spirit of coexistence.

The present leadership both Democrat and Republican believe that they can force the world to submit to its will by economic sanctions and military force. Neither will change the trajectory of this new emerging multi-polar world economic situation.

While the present focus in the western world is on things like abortion, gay rights and who can promise a new government program, the rest of the world is focused on economic independence from the west. They will not be denied and the west does not have the ability to stop this transition. Efforts to reverse this by military force will only result in mutual destruction.

The United States has diluted the buying power of the dollar and its status as the worlds reserve currency. A currency that was once considered "as good as gold", that is now a shadow of its former reliability. From $35.00 equal to an once of gold to $2500 is a mathematical judgment of what 50 years of deficit spending has done. Fiscal mismanagement on a colossal scale in the effort to buy votes and friends. The deficits and debt most likely cannot be reversed, without a tremendous loss of prosperity to the country and its citizens. The question is, how can this disaster be managed without further destruction? 

If the United States adopted the necessary policies to bring back an industrial base and sound currency it most likely would take 30 years of focused and sustained effort. It is not something that appears to be on the horizon in the present political and social climate. 

While the United States still has the protection of 2 oceans and the ability to defend its homeland, if it has the will, it no longer has the ability to control events in other parts of the world. 

It is likely that tremendous suffering is on the horizon for the western world. It may be limited to economic focus on priorities to restore its self reliance and sound fiscal policies. The alterative is to contuse on its delusional present course that may result in its ultimate destruction as a nation.

Cheney's attempt to preserve legacy at all costs.

 WHERE HAS ALL THE IRAQI OIL GONE?

WHERE HAS THE MONEY FROM THE OIL GONE?

This week we witness the ultra conservative Dick Cheney and Liz Cheney endorse Kamala Harris for President. They make it clear that their endorsement is an anti-Trump message. We all understand that the Bush's, Romney's and others are all anti-Trump. One reason why, was revealed a few years ago when Trump, in a statement about Syrian oil, remarked that the United States should keep the proceeds from the oil. The same bunch reacted in outrage at that suggestion, claiming that the United States is above such actions.

The reality is, that the oil in Syria is being pumped and sold, as is the oil in Iraq. Syria gets no money from their oil and Iraq has to beg the United States for a small percentage of the money from Iraqi oil.

During the gulf war it was reported by some reporters at the time that a pipeline was being built directly behind the U.S. troops as they advanced. Some asked why, and the response was, to supply oil to Bagdad. An answer that made no sense then or today.

It is clear that the United States is controlling the oil proceeds from this oil, but it seems no one is asking for an accounting of where this money has gone and continues to go. Is it going into the United States treasury? Is it being held in escrow for the people of Iraq and Syria?

If Trump should be elected, he should answer were the money is going. Does he really want to keep the money or did he just want to shake the oil revenue tree? 

It is another example of the meaningless U.S. press, that no one asks those questions? Maybe they should ask Dick Cheney, he may be able to answer that question. 

Russian election interference: Here they go again.

 BIGGEST  AUTHORS OF ELECTION INTERFERENCE, AGAIN BLAME RUSSIA

DO THEY REALLY THINK ANYONE WILL BELIEVE THIS AGAIN?

It is ironic and of course amazingly hypocritical that the Department of Justice and the FBI had a press conference to again raise the issue of Russian election interference. The reality is, that the DOJ and the FBI have been the biggest perpetrators of election interference in the history of this country. They have engaged in  constant election interference for the last 8 years.

Of course, we all remember the Russian collusion hoax that the DOJ investigated for 1 1/2 years, when it is proven the FBI knew it was a hoax before the investigation even began.

Then there was Russian hack of the Democrat National committee that the Crowdstrike investigation concluded that it was an internal leak downloaded internally.

We also remember the FBI jerking Hillary Clinton around in the lead up to 2016 election.

Then the indictment of a dozen Russians for engaging in the supposed hack, who when their lawyers showed up for a hearing, the special council dropped the indictment. It was nothing more than a opportunity for a news event.

Then we had the Hunter Biden laptop story that the FBI and DOJ labeled more Russian disinformation, even when they intentionally lied, as they knew it was in fact true.

Of course, the 51 Intelligence experts who blamed the Russians for the Hunter Biden laptop story.

Then we have the DOJ bringing multiple charges against the Republican candidate for President, all just more election interference on a grand scale.

These people have no shame, have no sense of justice and are disgrace to the country. They no longer have any credibility and only a fool would believe anything that they endorse.

As for the Russians, we are expected to believe that they have the influence to sway elections through some social media efforts, while we witness multiple billions of dollars in political ads, often downright lies, that seem to have marginal effects on influencing voters. Again, only fools would believe any of it.

 

Rejected by EU, Turkey embraces BRICS.

 TURKEY'S DECADES LONG EFFORT TO JOIN EU ENDS

BRICS WILL WELCOME WITH OPEN ARMS

Turkey has officially indicated that is desiring to join the BRICS economic cooperative, it will be a pivotal enhancement to BRICS. Turkey is geographically a important trading route for BRICS, it is the bridge between Asia and Europe and is a growing industrial market. It would be perfect fit for BRICS.

Turkey is the first NATO member, which is a military alliance, not an economic alliance, to join BRICS. At present there are dozens of new members interested in joining. If the disputes continue to escalate between the EU and Hungary and Slovakia, they may be next to consider allying with BRICS. I would expect that would create a conflict that would result in their being forced out of the EU.

While NATO may not like this development, it will not push this into an either or situation. It would most likely end with Turkey being lost as a pivotal NATO member.

This development just adds to growing frustration worldwide with sanctions, threats and intimidation by the west to be either,"with us or you are our enemy" Many independent nations do not want to be told who they can trade or cooperate with and many would like to be neutral in geopolitical disputes. While efforts to force submission are continuing, they are failing at an accelerating rate. 

It appears that a multi-polar economic world is coming, the question is will there be economic cooperation between the groups or continued effort to enforce the, "with us or against us" policy.

Ukraine government decimated by purge and resignations.

 7 POSITIONS FIRED OR RESIGN

FOREIGN MINISTER DMITRY KULEBA RESIGNS

A good portion of Ukraine's government has been replaced overnight as Zelensky has fired, among others, Deputy Prime minister for European affairs, Minister of strategic industries, Minister of Justice, Minister of environmental protection. This led to the resignation of well respected Foreign minister Dmitry Kuleba. Whether that is all or there are more to come one can only guess.

It is pivotal time for Ukraine as the Kursk offensive is contained with a reported loss of near 9000 troops. The eastern front is rapidly collapsing as a shortage of men and materials, coupled with exhausted troops, has resulted in a severe loss of morale. The news out of Kiev will most likely increase the anxiety and uncertainty of the troops. It may be increasingly difficult to risk ones life in a rapidly deteriorating situation.

Whether these changes were instituted by Zelenky or demanded by Washington is a good question. Maybe Lindsey Graham can fly over and give them a pep talk.

Many claim that Zelinsky's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, a former film producer, is the most powerful man in the government and is making most of the decisions.

These newest changes have followed major changes in the defense and military earlier in the year. It is unlikely that these changes will be able to change the momentum or the fundamental basics that have resulted in this catastrophe for Ukraine.

Immigration, deportation, big issue in Euroland.

 UNLIMITED IMMIGRATION COMING TO AN END IN EUROZONE

DEPORTATIONS PLANNED IN MORE COUNTRIES

While immigration is still a big issue in the United States, it is also a big issue in the Eurozone. The experiment by the EU to allow anyone who sets foot into any country to be able to move freely to any other member of the EU is at the root of the debate.

Brexit, for the UK to leave the EU, was mostly about unlimited immigration. At present most of the eastern European member nations have refused to allow this free movement and erected barriers to control immigration.

So far the UK, Germany, Austria and Italy are working on plans to implement some form of deportations of those they deem as undesirable out of their countries.

Most of the new arrivals know where the most generous benefits are and proceed to enter those countries as soon as possible. It has created a drain on all those social services and with mostly stagnant economies there are not enough jobs to provide work for these new arrivals. It has created a backlash that is now beginning to effect the results in every election in the EU. In Germany there are reported large apartment buildings full of immigrants on public assistance with no work opportunities. It has created an undesirable situation for both immigrants and the citizens.

Much of this has been compounded by the Ukraine conflict as it has added millions of Ukrainian women and children that have also become qualified for assistance.  This coupled with high energy prices due to sanctions on Russian energy has amplified the situation.

While many realize that the divisions in the U.S. are the most severe in since the civil war,  social problems in the EU are far more volatile. It is likely that in the near future every government will be replaced or under pressure to address these problems and with large percentages of immigrants, without any real connection to these countries, it is formula for serious unrest.

Harris replays Stealth campaign.

 DO NOTHING, SAY NOTHING 

TRUMP BAD, DEMOCRATS GOOD

A campaign of the simple minded for the simple minded, but it is effective in modern America. A campaign that has no policy other than more of the same.  This coupled with the old standbys of, "they are going to take your social security", they are going to outlaw abortion and they are all going to rule like Hitler. Very simple, for the very simple minded.

Then deny all the chaos and missteps that created the present problems and claim that if elected you will fix the problems you created. Only to believed by the very simple minded.

While much of the country is hoping for more government handouts, lower prices, free college and free and easily available abortions, the world is on the brink of nuclear war. But of course, nuclear war has never happened in this generations lifetime or anyone else for that matter, so it most likely will never happen.

The reality is, it will happen if the present bunch of geniuses in Washington continue to manage our foreign policy. It seems they also believe it is just never going to happen. 

One reason it has not yet happened is that Russia is prevailing in the present proxy war in Ukraine. A U.S. instigated war that was predicted by many, years ago, if they continued to push NATO expansion to the doorstep of Russia. Of course, we are told and believed by the same simple minded that Russia wants to rule the world and only the United States can stand in their way. 

These same geniuses believed they could destroy Russia by war and sanctions and now it seems not to be working. They went all in, put their reputation and that of NATO on the line and how are they going to accept defeat? Can they accept defeat? or will they believe they can convince the simple minded that Russia planned to attack with nuclear weapons so they may need to preempt them with an attack of their own. I am sure they can muster up 50 intelligence community experts who will swear that it is all true.

After all once it starts, "What difference will it make",  anyway.