Why quick ceasefire?

 MORE FACTS ABOUT WHO WANTED CEASEFIRE

PAUSE UNTIL NEXT ROUND?

Many were surprised to watch the 12 days of Iran/US/ Israeli conflict pause in a dramatic ceasefire. Let's look at the facts by all sides to see why this happened and if it is going to be a lasting end to the conflict.

Israel initiated this conflict, supposedly because of Iran's imminent ability to make nuclear weapons. This long planned attack was actually an effort to topple the government of Iran in a massive attack on the leadership of the country. It was successful in killing many of the leadership and also many in their scientific community. It was also designed to damage their communication and control and their air defense. It was successful and there were messages and speeches encouraging the citizens to rise up and overthrow the government. It became clear in a short time that this attack actually rallied support for the government of Iran. Iran was also able within 24 hours to reestablish command and control and begin a counter offensive with missle attacks on Israel. It appears that Israel hoped that the U.S. would quickly enter into this conflict, when it appeared they were winning.  

The Trump administration has been under extreme pressure from within the United States and Israel to attack Iran. Many were claiming that the government was weak and that there was little support for the government. It was claimed that a massive attack would cause an escalating collapse within the country. A very similar assessment of what would happen to Russia in such a crisis. It appears that Trump became convinced that Israeli intelligence had a better grasp of the analysis than the U.S. intelligence community. Trump has been apprehensive about getting involved in a drawn out war in the region as it would interfere with his bigger priorities both at home and on the world stage.

Iran has refused to take the bait numerous time and only responded in a limited way to numerous Israeli attempts to bait Iran into war. All with the hope that the U.S. would be forced to destroy Iran. Finally it appears that Israel made the decision to execute their long planned effort and gave Iran no other option but to respond. Below is a map showing the effects of the Iranian response on Israel. 

Sonar21.com

At the outset Iran sent massive numbers of drones and missiles that caused Israel to use large amounts of air Defense missiles, literally Billion of dollars of missiles. It soon became clear that Israel would soon become short of the required missiles and with the ports and airports closed it would soon become difficult to replace.  After some time, the number of missiles launched by Iran was reduced, but the percentage that hit, rose. After using up their obsolete and sometimes non warhead missiles they dipped into their more effective and larger missiles. some believe that at the rate things were going Israel would be in a very difficult position in a week or ten days. It was clear what was happening when Israel banned photos and videos from being taken. That's when the idea of a ceasefire became imperative.

Trump, who initially denied involvement in the attack, then when it was so successful, claimed partnership, then when intelligence showed where things were going, was all too willing to bomb the nuclear facilities, claim victory and a ceasefire.

As for Iran, they understood that if Israel's existence became threatened it would either draw in the U.S. or even possibly cause Israel to resort to nuclear weapons. Trump also offered some sanctions relief which he has since withdrawn.

Now, we are back to square one, some claiming the need to strike again, since the first strikes were not conclusive, from Israel, the domestic opponents and neocons. Trump would probably prefer to stay out, but the pressure is again going to be enormous.  Israel probably has some plan B strategy in mind. Iran is getting support from China with weapons and they may have made headway in world public opinion.  

Most believe that a resumption of war is very likely in the near future.

"That which doesn't kill you makes you stronger", Maybe?

 ADVOCATES FOR IRAN WAR ARE REGROUPING

EFFORTS TO SUCK U.S. INTO DESTROYING IRAN WILL CONTINUE

It is clear that Trump would like very much to declare victory in the Iran conflict and move on to much more critical items in his agenda. It may be a very difficult balancing act that he will need to navigate to not be lured into an extended war in Iran.  

Israel and its supporters are already regrouping and looking for a path to restart this conflict. While their military is overstretched and there is serious damage to their infrastructure, it is clear they feel that Iran is weakened and vulnerable to attack. The restraints on Israel may be from within and also U.S. public opinion is generally not in favor of a war in Iran. Trump may need a diversion to avoid being forced to resume the Iran war.

Iran in the meantime is purging any possible Israeli agents in the country, it is reported that over 800 arrests have been made and one can expect it will be a wide and deep dragnet for Mossad agents. Iran politically, at present, has been unified and strengthened. 

An issue is now appearing about the IAEA inspectors, who it has been revealed have used their ability to monitor Iran to pass security information to the U.S. and Israel. Many are now concerned that they have lost their credibility and effectiveness everywhere in the future. Iran's reluctance to again allow monitoring will, of course, be used as an excuse to refire the war.

Russia and China will be very likely assist in rebuilding Iran's anti-aircraft defenses and also political assistance in the international forum. Iran may have increased their world public opinion due to their restraint and Israel has lost their standing due to their methods and vicious attacks on public figures.

There are several factions that desire war with Iran. First, of course, is Israel which has portrayed Iran as the source of all their misfortune. Iran has countered that by being very restrained in its reactions to Israel's attempts to lure them into a response that will gain world support. Then there are the neocons who seem to advocate any war anywhere, often motivated by increased weapons spending and possible access to resources for profit. This would include the neocolonial forces in the U.K. and France whose economies are struggling without their colonial incomes for support. As their former colonies in Africa have been pushing them out they are looking for new sources of financial gain. Of course, all these are backed by international business that will also have access to these resources. Then there are the anti-Trumpers who anticipate a prolonged war in Iran will divert him from his goals for reforming government and moving to acceptinging a more co-existential foreign policy.

While the war is on a pause, the forces advocating war are working on many fronts to force a resumption of the conflict.

Is Israel safer now than in 2023?

 CAN ISRAEL OBTAIN PEACE BY MILITARY CONQUEST?

THEIR ROOTS SHOULD GIVE THEM THE ANSWER

Everyone understands the turning point in Israel's present policy as the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas.  The world shared their pain and their horror at what happened. The question is, are things now better due to the policies that were undertaken in reaction to that attack?

In 2023, the Abraham accords had been working to move the Arab world into normalizing relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia, a leader in that world, was about to normalize those relations with Israel. It would have been a giant step in that direction.

At the same time, Iran was in the process of improving relations with Saudi Arabia, not an alliance of Sunni, Saudi Arabia and Shia, Iran to make mischief in the region, but for the desire for economic cooperation and mutual prosperity.

At the same time Iran and Saudi Arabia were considering membership in the BRICS economic group and both would have been put under pressure to moderate their policies to be able to cooperate with the other members including Russia and China.

China was interested in massive cooperation and investment in Israel and was already a major factor in their economy.

While Iran has been labeled, the," Greatest supporter of Terrorism in the world", the label was more appropriate to be placed on Sunni, Saudi Arabia. Most all terrorist acts in Europe and the U.S. including 911, were funded by people in Saudi Arabia. Much of that changed when Mohammed bin Salman, became the de facto ruler of the Kingdom. He orchestrated a major purge of those funders of terrorism and made many reforms in the country. He is much more focused on cooperation and economic development in the region.

Hezbollah, supported by Iran, was moving to be more of a political party in Lebanon and was in fact the government in Lebanon.

Then there is Hamas, the elected government in the Gaza strip. Supported to some extent by Iran but it is unlikely that they were directly under the control of Iran. Hamas, with the changes occurring all around the region, was not in anyone's great favor and was most likely facing a future of irrelevancy. That all ended on Oct,7, 2023 with the attack on Israel. Hamas knowing the past policies of Israeli leadership may have performed yet another baiting of someone similar to the objectives of the 911 attack.

Israel's Mossad is often touted as the most effective intelligence in the world, so much so that many U.S. presidents have accepted their analysis over their own. Amazing that Hamas, could plan for year for an attack and Israeli intelligence was  caught off guard. I could go on with more, but this article is just an analysis of, Is Israel in a better position today than in 2023.

In the aftermath of this attack, Israel could not restrain its lust for revenge and kill multitudes times the number of Israelis' killed. The war on Hamas is still ongoing today, near 2 years, resulting in the death of near 60,000 people living in Gaza and insure the outrage of everyone in the region. Israel lost the greatest political opportunity in the world to gain the compassion and support of much of the world. They lost the opportunity to show their good faith and ask for the support of the world. The kind of support that could have isolated Hamas and possibly turned many to a more favorable image of Israel. The deaths in Gaza provided the excuse for Hezbollah, the Houthis and others to attack Israel. It is still going on even while Israel is declaring victory.

In contrast, Israel is now considered as the perpetrators of Genocide by much of the world, has diminished recognition by its neighbors, engaged in a perpetual attempt to insure their safety by military conflict and only by reliance on the United States and nuclear weapons is their existence insured. Economically they are declining, their population is decreasing as many are seeking to emigrate out, and it can be assumed, by the rhetoric out of Israel, it is going to continue. 

Their future cannot be insured by military might, they can be the greatest military power in the region, but still fail to survive by the costs inside, economically, politically and demographically.

I always refrain from quoting the Torah or the books of Moses in the Christian and Muslim world, but I suspect the answer to their dilemma is more there than in the faith in military might.

Trump has silenced the warmongers, at least for now.

 RESULTS OF ATTACK IRRELEVANT

HAS REGIME CHANGE BEEN CANCELED?

Obviously no one at this time understands what the results of the attack on Iran and the subsequent ceasefire will be in the long term. At least for now, Trump has fulfilled the desires of Netanyahu and the crowd advocating for an attack on Iran. He has fulfilled their demands and possibly kept the U.S. out of a protracted war with Iran. What has gone on behind the scenes between Iran, Russia, China and the U.S. may never be revealed, but it appears some kind of plan is in the works. 

At present, Iran, Israel and the U.S. are declaring victory. What all this means is still not very clear for the long term future of the region.

The Netanyahu plan was that an attack on Iran would inevitably require the assistance of the U.S. What transpired was that Trump watched and waited, instead of immediately joining in the attack on Iran. 12 days of nightly Iranian attacks were in fact depleting Israel's defensive ability and time was on Iran's side to cause severe damage to Israel's infrastructure and economic viability. Iran's leadership was seriously injured but it would take assistance from the U.S. for Israel to prevail in defeating Iran. The time was ripe for a ceasefire and the strike on Iran's nuclear facilities allowed Trump to declare victory and allow for an end of the hostilities, at least for now. Whether the facilities are completely destroyed, is now irrelevant, it appears there will not be any future U.S. attacks at this time.

It is no secret, that there was U.S. communications with Iran, probably through intermediaries, there was no resistance to the attack and everyone was evacuated and possibly some of its equipment. Iran communicated with the U.S. before its response attacks on U.S. bases, everyone was evacuated and no one was injured, face saving for Iran's domestic audience. Within hours a ceasefire was announced, amazing and reeks of some preconceived agreement. 

We can only assume that Iran has been given some assurances going forward. In the UN it is being debated, that according to international law, Iran has the right for peaceful use of nuclear energy, actually the same guidelines as the first agreement, between Iran and the U.S. In the future a UN vote may give the U.S. some cover to enact that agreement. We will have to see.

The reality is that Iran has been portrayed in much of the world as the victim in this affair, Israel coupled with the situation in Gaza has been seriously losing in the world public opinion and in the United States.

Israel's frustration with this long running conflict is understandable, and it is hoped some kind of better situation can be attained. New leadership in Israel may be the opportunity to seek real solutions for the long term, obviously the current path will most likely bring about the demise of the Israel experiment, as protracted war is unsustainable, economically, politically and militarily.

Declaring Victory and moving on?

 IS THIS CEASEFIRE REAL?

OR KABUKI THEATER

In an amazing turn of events, at least a pause in the Iran/Israel/U.S. war is underway. Yesterday, Iran, after informing the U.S. of it intentions, fired missiles at U.S. bases, without much reported damage.Then a ceasefire is reported to go into effect in the coming days. We will have wait to see what is really going on.

Iran has ministers in Russia for consultation and we can expect the behind the scenes conversations have been going on, what exactly is happening is anyone's guess.

It is now widely accepted that the U.S. attack on the nuclear facilities had unverified and less than a decimating effect. It seems that some now want to declare victory and move on. 

Of course, Iran has suffered serious damage to its leadership and Israel has been subjected to 12 days of daily attacks with significant damage to its infrastructure and its ability to run its economy. There is also an exodus of citizens out of the country. It is also reported that its air defenses are in critical need of restocking. If this ceasefire holds, it will allow Israel to resupply, and Iran to receive aid from Russia and China.

Is this the end, or just a pause in preparation for the next round?

There is just too many unknowns to be able to really understand what is going on behind the scenes. 

While Iran has not blocked the straits of Hormuz, it is reported that traffic has been severely slowed, by a combination of Tanker owners being apprehensive about moving in the region, insurance costs dramatically increasing and it will take some time to be brought back to normal under the best of conditions.

While there may be a ceasefire and talk of negotiations, have the demands of no nuclear facilities for Iran and total disarmament changed? Are the advocates for Regime change now being suppressed? Has anything really changed from 2 weeks ago, or is it just a performance to satisfy the desires of all temporarily?

 

Trump, "Time for Peace"?

 IS IT THE END OR JUST THE BEGINNING?

CONSEQUENCES WILL BE WIDE AND LONG LASTING

While the western world celebrates the beginning of the latest war in the middle east, the results of the many precedents set by this project will be long lasting. The war is far from being about Nuclear weapons, just as the war in Iraq was not about "Weapons of Mass destruction" it is just the cover for a far more complicated world conflict.

While many anticipate Iran to strike U.S. forces, it is most likely they will not, at least not for now.  They will concentrate on taking apart Israel piece by piece and making Israel a very unfriendly place to live. It is going to be a war of attrition. While ultimately Iran may lose this conflict, it is likely they will both be ultimate losers. Israel does not have a bright future.

The goal is not the end of Iran nuclear industry, if that was the case, the Iranians had accepted a workable agreement that would have insured no nuclear weapons in exchange for a more normalized relations. The goal  is regime change, the biggest regime change plan, except for Russia and eventually China. In fact, overthrowing and controlling Iran will be considered a huge win against Russia and China. Israel's goal is dominate military power over the entire middle-east as it is the only nuclear power. It also desires for expansion in Gaza, the west bank, parts of Syria and Jordan.

The only ones who seem to not understand this reality is, as usual, most Americans, who accept their governments claims of Sainthood and the promotion of Democracy and fair play around the world.

The precedent that have been set by this whole Iran tragedy is that the United States credibility, which was not too great to begin with, may have been permanently destroyed. No one will enter into negotiations with the U.S. after watching the duplicity and deceit that was displayed in the Iranian negotiations. The negotiations were a scam, never meant to be consummated. The world was watching.

The unspoken rule about assassination of the leadership of another country, is now gone. Politicians and leaders of any government, including the U.S., are now going to be considered fair game.

We can expect that the much touted trade agreement with China will never be fulfilled. China would be a fool to provide any strategic rare earth products used for U.S. arms manufacturing, that ultimately will  be used against them. 

Russia will never enter into serious negotiations with the U.S. after watching what happened to themselves and to Iran while negotiations were in progress.

The policy of smuggling drones into a country for an attack can be perpetrated against any country on earth, including the United States, by countries, groups and individuals.

India has refused to come for a meeting with the White house.

Japan has cancelled negotiations with U.S. after the U.S. tried to force them to dramatically increase their defense spending, by buying weapons from the United States and in effect, provoking China.

At one time, the United States was considered the Light upon a hill. An example to be envied by much of the world. A reputation of fair play and cooperation. As the world has prospered and many counties have become wealthy, the U.S., which has lost much of the source of its prosperity, a huge manufacturing base, has attempted keep its top role in the world by intimidation and threats, attempting to damage the economies of competitors or if necessary and ultimately, brut force.  And even neo-colonialism, does anyone ask who if receiving the benefits of Iraqi, Syrian and Libyan oil revenues?

It has made enemies where there were no enemies and anyone who does not submit is labeled an enemy and subjected to propaganda and demonization.  

Donald Trump promised a new policy, ending the endless wars and embracing a policy of mutual respect and cooperation, many saw hope in negotiations with both Russia and Iran, but he engaged in duplicity and deceit and the possibilities of future negotiations with anyone are dead. Violent confrontation is all that is left.

Rather than accepting the new reality in world affairs and seeking cooperation and coexistence, It seems the U.S. policy is on an unsustainable attempt to rule the world by force, a policy that has always ended in tragic results.

Trump not the only one trapped.

 NETANYAHU NOW CAUGHT IN A DEADLY SQUEEZE

INTERFERING IN OTHERS DOMESTIC POLITICS CAN BE DANGEROUS

Several weeks ago there was speculation that Benjamin Netanyahu had enough influence in the United States Senate to hinder the passage of Trump's budget bill. At the same time there was enormous pressure from inside the United States for the U.S. to attack Iran. A venture that was equally resisted by Trump's base of support. A support that has, in the last week, become possibly critical for Trump's future as president.

This attack that Israel undertook 9 days ago was most likely taken with Trump's awareness, but was not with a feeling of confidence in it's outcome. We watched as Israel, by covertly smuggling drones and saboteurs into Iran was able to kill much of the Iranian leadership, also able to damage Iran's defenses. Within days Israel was stating that there was now an open corridor into Iran, a message to the U.S. that it was now all clear for the U.S. to take out the nuclear facilities. This may have been the plan to start the destruction of Iran, that Israel is incapable of carrying out on its own.

There is now questions about how clear this airspace is, Iran has reported that they have taken down 5 F35's. Israel claims they have not lost any planes, some may question that. There are also reports that most of Israel's attacks are being accomplished with standoff attacks often outside of Iranian airspace. I suspect that U.S. intelligence has a clear picture of the situation. The plan was for an immediate U.S. attack on the nuclear facilities, Trump is talking about 2 weeks. Can Israel absorb daily hits to its infrastructure for another 2 weeks? It has lost 2 of its 3 refineries, only 1 airport is functioning and its main harbor has had severe damage. Israel has shut down much of reporting from inside and has banned the exit of citizens from the country. It is also running low on defensive missiles.

Politically, Netanyahu won a no confidence vote by only 2 votes only days before this attack. Israel is not winning with world public opinion. This attack has broken numerous UN rules and laws. At the same time, it appears a U.S. attack will indeed trigger a serious response from Iran that will plunge the U.S. into a prolonged and daily escalating conflict that will end the effectiveness of the Trump presidency. Netanyahu has been advocating for an attack on Iran for 30 years. It has always been that Iran was within weeks of a nuclear weapon. It may true, but crying wolf for 30 years has consequences. An attack on Iran by Bush 2 was rejected because the cost benefit analysis was very bad. Same for Obama, same for Trump first term, same for even Biden, I expect that an objective analysis is the same, the costs to the U.S. and world far exceed the benefits.

Will Israel now orchestrate an attack on U.S. bases and blame it on Iran, a deadly serious and risky operation with much of the world now focused on the activities in the region? Is it possible to now pass the budget bill quickly as an incentive for Trump to take action? 

Every day that goes by adds to the decimation of Israel. It also raises the possibility of more desperate actions that will end in more death and destruction. Many claim that Iran has been planning for just such a situation since 2003 and will not surrender or go down without a fight. 

A very precarious situation for Israel and for the U.S.